Monday, December 31, 2018

In Syria, Iran Sees a New Opportunity to Build a War Machine



Steven Emerson, Executive Director
December 31, 2018
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In Syria, Iran Sees a New Opportunity to Build a War Machine

by Yaakov Lappin
Special to IPT News
December 31, 2018
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If it goes ahead, Iran likely will view President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw American forces from eastern Syria as a green light to build a new war machine in the region.
But Iran also received a red light recently, apparently reminding it that Israel is standing guard against Tehran's takeover plans.
That red light came Dec. 25 in the form of an alleged Israeli air strike on an Iranian weapons depot in Syria. The strike looks like the latest signal of Israel's determination to block Iran's path into Syria, with or without an American ground presence.
According to media reports, including a report by the Israeli satellite image company ISI, the strike destroyed a warehouse that contained Iranian Fajr-5 rockets. The warehouse was just 40 kilometers – about 25 miles – away from Israel.
Israel's military says Fajr 5 rockets are produced in Iranian weapons factories and have a range of 75 kilometers, or just under 50 miles. In past years, Iran smuggled these types of rockets to terrorist organizations that are ideologically committed to attacking Israel, including Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Now, Iran is trying to flood Syria with them.
So far, the Fajr 5s that have been in the inventory of Israel's enemies were unguided rockets. That does not stop them from posing a serious threat. Hamas fired a Fajr 5 rocket in November 2012 in the midst of an eight-day conflict, severely damaging an apartment building in Rishon Lezion, south of Tel Aviv. Residents survived due to an air raid siren, which sent them scurrying into a safe room before the rocket struck.
In February 2017, reports emerged saying that Iran's defense industry has begun manufacturing a new, guided version of the Fajr 5.
These can be fired quickly and in succession from a multiple launch rocket system (MLRS). The arrival of such weapons would present terrorists in Syria seeking to attack Israel with new precision abilities.
It remains unclear whether the Fajr 5 rockets destroyed in the alleged Israeli strike were guided, but Israel has drawn a clear red line that forbids the arrival of Iranian guided projectiles in the area. Once in Syria, precision weapons can be given to Shi'ite militias under Iran's command, or be used by Iranian military forces themselves, which are operating on Syrian soil. That's what happened last May, when Islamic Republican Guards Corps (IRGC) used a truck-mounted rocket launcher to fire on the Golan Heights.
In other cases, batches of Iranian weapons that have made their way into Syria are subsequently smuggled into neighboring Lebanon, where Hizballah has built up one of the world's largest arsenals of surface-to-surface projectiles. Hizballah's estimated 130,000 rockets and missiles are pointed at Israeli cities, power plants, ports, airports, and military installations.
Thus, Iran has already turned Lebanon into a forward military post against Israel. Its goal now is to do the same in Syria.
Although the U.S. forces stationed in Syria are there exclusively to combat Salafi-jihadist Sunni ISIS terrorists, their presence in the strategically important Al-Tanf region, on the Syria-Iraq border, also helps block the expansion of the radical Iranian-Shi'ite axis.
The U.S. presence has helped stop Iran from trying to use the Al-Tanf border crossing as a gateway for land convoys carrying Iranian weapons and Shi'ite militias, from Iraq into Syria.
The Al-Tanf border area is one of two ground corridors that Iran is hoping to use in its Syrian expansion project.
The second main land 'entrance' to Syria is located further north, at the Albu Kamal border crossing. This area has been the scene of repeated Iranian and Hizballah-controlled traffic of militias and weapons. But this site also drew at least one major alleged Israeli strike in June, resulting in dozens of casualties, including Iranian military officers and Iraqi Shi'ite militia members.
Currently, Israel and Iran remain locked in a shadow war over Syria's future. Israel is employing preventative force to stop Iran from converting Syria into second front, alongside Lebanon.
Tehran's takeover efforts are being led by the IRGC, which acts as the 'long arm' of Iran across the region, particularly through the overseas expeditionary elite unit, the Quds Force, commanded by the notorious General Qassem Soleimani.
With Israel 'covering' the northern Albu Kamal crossing, the U.S. had been 'covering' the southern Al-Tanf crossing, meaning that Iran's ground expansion scheme had run into some difficulties. Iran was forced to rely on its more traditional trafficking method – cargo flights – though this too had become increasingly difficult, with Israel monitoring suspicious flights around the clock, and reportedly taking action when intelligence called for it.
A U.S. withdrawal from Al-Tanf, however, would be seen by the Iranians as a gap in the fence. This can be seen from a statement made by Jaafar al-Husseini, the military spokesman of Kataeb Hizballah, an Iraqi Shi'ite militia backed by Iran, which maintains a presence in the Albu Kamal region. According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, al-Husseini said his militia "is willing to take part, along with the Syrian Army, in protecting the Syrian Kurds along the border with Iraq," following Trump's withdrawal announcement.
The Kurds in eastern Syria would become vulnerable to Turkish attacks if the U.S. leaves, and they would likely reach out to Assad and perhaps even the Iranians in desperation. Al-Husseini's remarks are really an expression of an Iranian intention to fill a vacuum.
Al-Husseini told the Hizballah-affiliated Lebanese Al-Mayadeen television station that "we have an ongoing and highly active relationship with Kurdish commands in northern Syria. We have the full picture regarding what is happening in northern Syria, including the movement of the American [forces]." Such comments reflect a keen Iranian appetite to move into eastern Syria.
Russia will be equally keen to fill in the vacuum, but since it still depends on the Iranian axis for help in stabilizing the Assad regime, Tehran and Moscow can be expected to try and reach an agreement over how to proceed.
Comments made last week by the outgoing Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eizenkot reflect just how central the threat of an Iranian takeover of Syria has become in the eyes of the Israeli defense establishment.
"The main topic over the past years for the IDF has been the Iranian entrenchment in Syria," Eizenkot said, during one of his final public addresses in uniform.
In Syria, he said, Iran has been trying to build an army of 100,000 Shi'ite militia members, including Hizballah operatives. It has tried to construct missile bases, and a create chain of attack positions on the Syrian border with Israel. Hundreds of Israeli strikes prevented this from happening, the Israeli military chief added.
In next-door Lebanon, Iran and Hizballah planned for a ground invasion of a strip of 5 kilometers in northern Israel, using attack tunnels, to "create an achievement that would reverberate in history," Eizenkot said. The IDF exposed and demolished Hizballah's cross-border attack tunnels in recent weeks, foiling that dangerous plan.
Iran and its Lebanese proxy have also made "a very big effort to create precision firepower, and level the playing field with what Hizballah perceives to be Israeli military superiority," Eizenkot stated.
"The security challenge is like a very big iceberg. Some of it is visible to public and media [but] most of it is hidden from view. In the hidden part, the IDF is very busy with the multi-dimensional Iranian threat, and the Hizballah threat. The War Between Wars [Israel's preventative campaign] has turned into a central effort," he added.
Iran has invested $16 billion in rescuing Assad, and deployed 2,000 IRGC military advisers to the country. It has reportedly sustained more than 1,000 casualties, and mobilized around 10,000 Shi'ite militia members, most from Iraq and Afghanistan. These fighters have been joined by 8,000 Lebanese Hizballah members. Hizballah, too, has paid a heavy price in Syria, losing an estimated 2,000 casualties.
The scale of this investment suggests that the Islamic Republic is not about to give up on Syria. At the same time, Iran faces major financial pressure from re-imposed American sanctions. So far, Iran has been able to suppress domestic protests, and navigate the sanctions, while remaining committed to expansion in Syria.
Iran likes to pretend that it is in Syria at Assad's invitation, but in reality, the Damascus regime owes its existence to Iranian life support, and has little choice but to grant every Iranian 'request' to use its territory.
Iran's ultimate goal is to encircle Israel with bases of missiles and terrorist armies, a sentiment made clear by comments made Sunday by Tehran's Palestinian proxy group, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which is the second largest armed faction in the Gaza Strip.
Speaking from Tehran, PIJ secretary-general Ziad Nakhla said, "In any future war, the resistance axis will act as one man, from north to south. Israel must understand that the resistance axis today is one."
Yaakov Lappin is a military and strategic affairs correspondent. He also conducts research and analysis for defense think tanks, and is the Israel correspondent for IHS Jane's Defense Weekly. His book, The Virtual Caliphate, explores the online jihadist presence.
The IPT accepts no funding from outside the United States, or from any governmental agency or political or religious institutions. Your support of The Investigative Project on Terrorism is critical in winning a battle we cannot afford to lose. All donations are tax-deductible. Click here to donate online. The Investigative Project on Terrorism Foundation is a recognized 501(c)3 organization.  

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Confident Hamas Claims Foreign Policy Independence After Tehran Visit



Steven Emerson, Executive Director
December 31, 2018
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Confident Hamas Claims Foreign Policy Independence After Tehran Visit

by IPT News  •  Dec 31, 2018 at 10:43 am
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While it relies on money from Iran and Qatar to survive, a Hamas spokesperson recently claimed that Hamas' leadership is independent and will not be expected to return political favors to external patrons, reports the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.
Iran will not pressure Hamas to normalize ties with the Assad regime, for example, Sami Abu Zuhri said. His comments signal the terrorist group's growing confidence, despite its increasing reliance on state patrons.
A Hamas delegation led by senior official Mahmoud al-Zahar, met with top Iranian regime figures Dec. 23 to discuss strengthened coordination.
During Hamas' visit, Iran's parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani railed against the "Zionist regime" and the Ayatollah's senior adviser, Ali-Akbar Velyati, said the only way to confront Israel is through "resistance."
Israel's enemies often use the vague term "resistance" to justify violence and terrorism against Israelis.
According to the Meir Amit report, Velyati "called on the Palestinians to continue resisting until their final victory" – the destruction of the Jewish state.
Ties between Hamas and Iran have grown rapidly over the past couple of years. Hamas initially opposed the Assad regime following the onset of Syria's civil war, leading Iran to virtually sever ties to the terrorist organization.
Iran reduced financial assistance for Hamas, cutting aid by $23 million a month in 2013. But since Assad started to gain the upper hand in the conflict, Iran and Hamas – and even Hizballah – have restored close cooperation.
"Our [Hamas'] relations with Iran and Hizballah have returned to their natural path and we intend to develop these relations," Al-Zahar said early this year in an interview on Al-Quds TV, Israel Hayom reported.
A year ago, Hamas deputy political chief Salah Al-Arouri, a co-founder of the Hamas terrorist arm called the Izzadin al-Qassam Brigades, boasted about Hamas' ties with Iran and Hizballah, and formally credited the Islamic Republic for arming Palestinian terrorist groups.
"Who supports the resistance in Gaza and Palestine? Iran. It is Iran and Hizballah that confront that entity [Israel] along with us," said Al-Arouri in a December 2017 interview on Al-Quds TV and reported by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).
Al-Arouri admitted that "the aid Iran provides to the resistance is not merely symbolic" and that "nobody but Iran gives us [Palestinian terrorist groups] any military support."
A lot has changed since the start of Syria's civil war – including a reinvigorated Iran-Hamas partnership that has emboldened the Palestinian terrorist organization.
The IPT accepts no funding from outside the United States, or from any governmental agency or political or religious institutions. Your support of The Investigative Project on Terrorism is critical in winning a battle we cannot afford to lose. All donations are tax-deductible. Click here to donate online. The Investigative Project on Terrorism Foundation is a recognized 501(c)3 organization.  

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The Anti-American Dream

The TRUTH about Muslim immigration in England

Terror in 2018; Mexico Wall Standoff


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The West's Big-Ticket Power Grabs


In this mailing:
  • David Brown: The West's Big-Ticket Power Grabs
  • Malcolm Lowe: America's Loyal Syrian Kurdish Allies Evade Annihilation
Gatestone's important work is only made possible through the support of our readers. As a non-profit organization, the funds we raise now will determine what we will be able to do in 2019. Please make a U.S. tax-deductible contribution today -- the last day that every donation will be tripled by an anonymous donor, so that your gift will be worth so much more.

The West's Big-Ticket Power Grabs
Why Should People Respect the Social Contract when Politicians Do Not?

by David Brown  •  December 31, 2018 at 5:00 am
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  • The assertiveness of supra-national organisations with a focus on global policy-making is direct threat to the sovereignty of the nation state, and a dilution of the power of the individuals within it.
  • Most alarmingly, as MEP Marcel de Graaff neatly surmised from the UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration: "Criticism of migration will become a criminal offense." At what point have we left all pretext of democracy and moved into the sphere of dictatorship, manifest at a supranational level?
  • "It's very simple: the globalist political elite doesn't respect nation-states, nor does it give a damn about the views of ordinary people. Indeed, it despises them so much that it would much rather make their views illegal than listen to what they have to say." — James Delingpole, Breitbart, December 9, 2018.
French President Emmanuel Macron's recent dismissal of nationalism as "selfish" and a "betrayal of patriotism" is at odds with strengthening populist movements sweeping across Italy, Germany and Spain. Pictured: Macron shares a laugh with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the European Council leaders' summit on June 28, 2018 in Brussels, Belgium. (Photo by Jack Taylor/Getty Images)
It is a strange time to be a citizen in a Western democracy. Our society is based on exchange -- we transact in the free market, we share ideas online, and most significantly we give up some of our natural liberty in exchange for a civil society and a vote.
But increasingly, the freedoms supposed to be protected by civil society are being eroded away. At the level of the individual, our freedom of speech is under attack. Criticism of migration is apparently about to become "hate speech" and a prosecutable offence.
When the authority of the nation state is ceded to a supra-national body, such as the United Nations, our power as citizens is diluted.
Based on the contractual theory of society and the works of Hobbes, Locke and Rousseau from the 17th and 18th century, real power is supposed to sit with the people; in order to retain moral character, government must thus rest on the consent of the governed, or the volonté générale ("general will"):

America's Loyal Syrian Kurdish Allies Evade Annihilation
While US forces in Iraq face expulsion

by Malcolm Lowe  •  December 31, 2018 at 4:00 am
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  • It would be strategic wisdom to maintain the small US presence in Syria while reducing the US profile in Iraq in order to forestall a looming demand by the Iraqi parliament for a total US withdrawal. Now it is probably too late because the Syrian Kurds have decided to abandon the US before the US abandons them.
  • Trump was doubtless informed about events in Iraq on a running basis by McGurk over recent months, but his statements at the US base were as nonchalant about the facts in Iraq as about the situation in Syria. What he does not imagine at all is that the day may be close when the Iraqi parliament votes by a large majority to ask him to remove US forces from the country -- and he will have to comply.
  • The consequences of these December days will delay regime change in Iran. If a perception arises in Iran that the regime can expel the US from Iraq as well as Syria, while expanding its influence to dominate Syria from end to end, some Iranians will give the regime another chance and others will be significantly more discouraged from challenging its power. Thus a single obstinate insistence to prefer a personal instinct to all better-informed advice may bring US policy tumbling down throughout the Middle East.
Pictured: President Donald Trump and Melania Trump speak with US military officers during a visit to Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq, on December 26, 2018. (Image source: The White House)
In April 2018, we warned that President Trump's decision to withdraw US forces from Syria would be a repetition of President Obama's worst mistake, the precipitate withdrawal from Iraq that facilitated the capture of Mosul by the Islamic State (ISIS).
We perceived that the immediate consequence of abandoning Syria would be a Turkish-led campaign to annihilate America's Syrian Kurdish allies, who heroically bore the brunt of defeating the ISIS in Syria and capturing its capital, Raqqa.
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