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If he is confirmed as secretary of State, Rex Tillerson
said he would plan a "full review" of the international
accord that blocks Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb. But
appearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tillerson did
not promise to rip up the deal, as President-elect Donald Trump
sometimes has said he would do. Tillerson said he would increase
monitoring and verification systems to ensure Iran does not violate the
agreement, which eased international sanctions against the country in
exchange for destroying most of its nuclear fuel production facilities.
"We need ... to examine our ability to clarify whether Iran is
complying," Tillerson told the committee. "That means no
nuclear enrichment in Iran, no storing of nuclear materials in
Iran," he said.
The Iran nuclear deal was written with several
"sunset" provisions setting expiration dates, some of them 15
years into the future, when restrictions on the Islamic Republic's
nuclear program would lift. Then Donald Trump was elected president,
and a sunset on the deal itself became possible. During the campaign,
Trump regularly denigrated the Iran agreement. He vowed, at turns, to
walk away from the 2015 accord, or renegotiate it, or enforce it so
rigorously that it might collapse on its own. Trump is expected to take
a more confrontational approach with Iran, showing no tolerance for
even small breaches of what was agreed upon. The strategy seems
designed to increase pressure on Iran, stopping what critics consider
backsliding or cheating, but also to compel it to moderate its actions
elsewhere in the region. "I was skeptical that the deal would
survive, even if Clinton were elected, but the chances of it reaching
its expiration date under Trump are very slim," said Karim
Sadjadpour, an Iran analyst with the Carnegie Endowment. "I could
see a scenario where Iran continues to do provocative things. Both
Trump and Congress respond with new sanctions. And Iran says, 'You just
abrogated your end of the deal, therefore we're going to put our foot
on the gas again and reconstitute our nuclear program.' But the
likelihood that either side gratuitously walks away from the deal is
very low. Neither side wants to be blamed for ripping it up."
In November 2012, shortly before the White House ended
his tenure commanding U.S. forces in the Middle East, Marine Gen. James
Mattis delivered an urgent message to his boss: An Iranian fighter jet
had fired errantly on a U.S. drone flying over the Persian Gulf. In
considering how the U.S. should respond, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta
took into account a central feature of Mattis' reputation - his nerve.
"I could sense that Mattis did not want to back down," Panetta
recounted in his memoir, "Worthy Fights." "And that the
White House was wary of his resolve. As I already knew, the White House
didn't fully trust Mattis, regarding him as too eager for a military
confrontation with Iran." That crisis faded. But Mattis now stands
on the brink of becoming Pentagon chief for a president-elect, Donald
Trump, who has pledged to toughen U.S. policy toward Iran. That could
have broad implications as the incoming Trump administration weighs
trying to modify the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reconfigure the
American posture in the Middle East after complaints from U.S. allies
that President Barack Obama yielded too much ground to Tehran.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
A diplomat denied reports that a clean-up plan at the
Natanz facility will bring Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium below a
cap mentioned in a nuclear agreement with world powers, saying residue
from the process will be exempted from the 300-kg limit on Iran's
enriched uranium. In comments on Tuesday, Iran's Deputy Foreign
Minister Abbas Araqchi rejected a report by The Wall Street Journal
that Iran has agreed after discussions with the Group 5+1 (Russia,
China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) to push its stockpile of
enriched uranium far below the 300-kilogram cap fixed in a 2015 nuclear
agreement... However, Araqchi made it clear on Tuesday that the
enriched material flushed out of the pipes after the clean-up plan will
be exempted from the 300-kg limit on the enriched uranium stockpile,
stressing that as a result, Iran will be able to enrich more material.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
An Airbus passenger plane landed in Tehran on Thursday,
the first of 200 Western-built aircraft ordered by IranAir following
the lifting of sanctions on Iran last year. "This is a historic
moment for Iran, signalling the end of the sanctions era for the
country ...This is a prelude to the delivery of other aircraft and the
renovation of Iran's ageing air fleet," state TV said. Analysts
say IranAir flies one of the world's oldest fleets and has had to rely
on smuggled or improvised parts. Iran, which has not directly purchased
a Western-built plane in nearly 40 years, has ordered 100 from Airbus,
80 from Boeing and 20 from turboprop maker ATR... IranAir hopes to
receive "at least two more from Airbus" by the end of March
and a total of six A320 aircraft in calendar year 2017, Parvaresh said.
Maersk Line has expanded its footprint in Iran by adding
a second port of call less than three months after it resumed services
to the country following the lifting of sanctions imposed on Tehran
because of its nuclear program. The Danish carrier, which suspended
services in 2012, has added the port of Bushehr to its Iran coverage,
which was relaunched with calls to Bandar Abbas in October. Maersk,
which also has an office in Tehran, the Iranian capital, said it
selected the port because it is the largest gateway for transportation
of goods in the province of Bushehr, with an annual throughput of seven
million tons. The port of Bushehr can provide all containerized cargo
services and, most significantly, refrigerated products.
PSA on Wednesday reported a rise in car unit sales for
2016 thanks to business in Iran which the carmaker is including again
after the end to sanctions against Tehran. With the integration of
sales from joint ventures and licence agreements in Iran, Peugeot
booked a rise in deliveries of 5.6pc. On a comparable basis, without
the integration of the Iranian contribution, the figure dropped by 2pc
from 2015. The group' s three brands Peugeot, Citroen and DS, sold just
over three million cars last year, of which 233,000 were produced under
licence in Iran. In 2015, the group sold 2.9 million units. PSA' s
post-sanctions return to Iran resulted in joint ventures with local
companies Iran Khodro and Saipa, and a partnership with Arian Motor.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Syrian activists say they have given U.N. investigators
evidence of alleged war crimes committed by Russia and Iranian-backed
militia in the battle for the Syrian city of Aleppo, calling for them
to face justice for killing civilians and other atrocities... "We
also urge the Commission to explore fully all credible accounts of
Iran's complicity in war crimes in Aleppo," it said, citing the
"central role" of Iranian-backed militias in enforcing the
siege and preventing civilians from fleeing. Iran, which has backed
President Bashar al-Assad with weapons, oil shipments and military
advisers, denies any involvement in killing of civilians and emphasizes
Tehran's determination to support Assad in his "fight against
terrorism".
TERRORISM
A US court this week ordered the governments of Iran and
Syria to pay nearly $200 million to the family of an Israeli infant
killed by a Hamas terrorist in a 2014 vehicular attack in Jerusalem.
The US District Court in Washington, DC ruled Tuesday that Tehran and
Damascus were liable to provide compensation for damages amounting to
$178,500,000 due to their financial backing of the Palestinian
terrorist organization Hamas. The Israeli NGO Shurat HaDin represented
the family of dual Israeli-American citizen Chaya Zissel Braun, the
three-month-old baby who was killed when Palestinian terrorist Abdel
Rahman Shaludi rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people at the
Ammunition Hill light-rail station in the capital. Israeli officials
identified the perpetrator as a convicted terrorist who had previously
served a prison sentence and had ties to Hamas.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Officials in the southern Iranian city of Shiraz have
pledged to look into suggestions of a link between public health risks
and the jamming of communications in the area, after residents took to
the streets to complain of ailments that could stem from technology
used to block foreign broadcasts. Authorities have acknowledged in the
past that jamming takes place in Iran, but no official has ever come
forward to assume responsibility for the practice. The officials in
Shiraz offered their assurances at a January 9 gathering where dozens
of citizens called for action against jamming, which they suspect of
causing health problems such as headaches and even cancer.
"Jamming is betrayal of the people," some chanted. Others
argued that good health is their "inalienable right."
OPINION & ANALYSIS
A 56-year-old conservative cleric relatively unknown to
the outside world is quietly emerging as a frontrunner to be Iran's
next supreme leader. Ebrahim Raisi is the custodian of Astan Quds
Razavi, the wealthiest charity in the Muslim world and the organisation
in charge of Iran's holiest shrine. It is believed he is being groomed
to be a leading candidate to succeed 77-year-old Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei. Khamenei's tenure, which has spanned more than a
quarter-century, will end only with his death; but the sudden death on
Sunday of Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the country's greatest
political survivor, has revived speculation about the succession. In
2014, Khamenei, the country's ultimate decision-maker and its
commander-in-chief, was announced to have undergone prostate surgery,
which broke a taboo on the topic.
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