Pakistan’s army is building an arsenal of ”tiny” nuclear weapons—and it’s going to backfire
Pakistani soldiers test anti-aircraft weaponry. (Reuters/Zmeyev)
Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal and, within the next five to ten years,
it is likely to double that of India, and exceed those of France, the
United Kingdom, and China. Only the arsenals of the United States and
Russia will be larger.
In recent years, Pakistan has boasted of developing “tactical nuclear weapons”
to protect itself against potential offensive actions by India. In
fact, Pakistan is the only country currently boasting of making increasingly tiny nuclear weapons (link in Urdu).
Pakistanis overwhelmingly support their army and its various misadventures. And the pursuit of tactical weapons
is no exception. However, there is every reason why Pakistanis should
be resisting—not welcoming—this development. The most readily
identifiable reason is that, in the event of conflict between the two
South Asian countries, this kind of weaponization will likely result in
tens of thousands of dead Pakistanis, rather than Indians. And things
will only go downhill from there.
Why would Pakistan want “the world’s smallest nuclear weapons”?
In late 1999, Pakistan’s general Pervez Musharraf
(who took power of Pakistan through a military coup in Oct. 1999 and
remained in power until 2008), along with a tight cabal
of fellow military officials began a limited incursion into the
Kargil-Dras area of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. While
planning for this began in the fall of 1998, by the time Pakistani
troops were discovered there in May of 1999 Pakistani forces had taken
territory that was several miles into India-administered Kashmir.
Because the Pakistanis had the tactical advantage
of occupying the ridge line, India took heavy losses in recovering the
area from the invaders. The so-called Kargil War
was the first conventional conflict between India and Pakistan since
the two conducted nuclear tests in May 1998. International observers
were wary that the conflict would escalate either in territory or aims,
with the potential for nuclear exchange.
Fearing such escalation, then Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif sought support from China and the United States.
Both were adamant that Pakistan respect the line of control, which
separated the portions of Jammu-Kashmir administered by India and
Pakistan.
Under international pressure and branded an
irresponsible state, Pakistan withdrew its forces from Kashmir. It
initially claimed that the intruders were mujahedeen—but this was later
found to be pure fiction. While Pakistan was isolated internationally,
the international community widely applauded India’s restraint. The Kargil War provided the United States
with the opportunity to reorient its relations away from Pakistan
towards India, while at the same time, demonstrated to India that the
United States would not reflexively side with Pakistan.
In retrospect, the Kargil war catalyzed the
deepening security cooperation between the United States and India. It
also galvanized a serious rethink in India about its domestic security
apparatus, intelligence agencies’ capabilities, and overall military
doctrine.
Crucially, India learned from this conflict that
limited war is indeed possible under the nuclear umbrella. In Oct. 2000,
air commodore Jasjit Singh, who retired as the director of operations of India’s air force and headed India’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses until 2001, laid out the lineaments of an India’s limited war doctrine.
However, no apparent effort was made to make this a viable military
concept immediately and India persisted with its defensive posture. In
late Dec. 2001, Pakistani terrorists from the Pakistan-backed military
group Jaish-e-Mohammad attacked India’s parliament in New Delhi.
In response, India’s government began the largest military mobilization
since the 1971 war, which resulted in the liberation of Bangladesh,
then East Pakistan. Just as the crisis was subsiding, another group of
Pakistani terrorists, Lashkar-e-Taiba, attacked the wives and children
of Indian military personnel in Kaluchak, Kashmir.
India again seemed poised to take military action but ultimately backed
down. The crisis was officially defused after India held elections in
Kashmir later that fall. Pakistan concluded that its nuclear arsenal had
successfully deterred India from attacking.
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