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Leaked
Islamic State Documents: What If They Are Fake?
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Originally published under the title "Leaked Documents
May Reveal the Inner Workings of the Islamic State — But What If They Are
Fake?"
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Fake
ISIS documents "are few in number and fairly easy to spot if
you're familiar with prior specimens," according to Aymenn Jawad
al-Tamimi, a research fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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If you want to really understand the Islamic State and go beyond the
propaganda, looking at the militant group's internal documents might be a
good place to start. As the group expanded over the past year and
attempted to turn into a functioning state, it released several internal
orders and decrees that seek to organize this "caliphate."
These documents offer a glimpse of not only the way the Islamic State
organizes but also the anxiety and disorder in the group that lies under
the surface.
One example of this comes from documents that were recently revealed
by Reuters and that appear to show the Islamic State decreeing who
can have sex with captured enslaved women and who cannot. The documents
showed that a bureaucracy appears to underpin even the most brutal acts
committed by the group and hinted that some of the extreme behavior by
its fighters led even the group's own religious authorities to balk.
On the other hand, some experts believe that some purported Islamic
State internal documents shared online are hoaxes, deliberately designed
to deceive. These fakes are widespread enough that Aymenn Jawad
al-Tamimi, a young British analyst who has made a name for himself with his
analysis of extremist activity, recently published his own "guide
to Islamic State document hoaxes."
Tamimi's guide pointed to three recent documents widely shared online
that he felt were fake. Some of these documents have fooled experts and
media outlets. One of these, which appeared to show that the Islamic
State planned to abandon Iraq's Fallujah province, was shared on Twitter
by Col.
Steve Warren, a spokesman for the U.S.-led campaign against the
Islamic State. Another, which purported to be a price list for sex
slaves, was reported on
by the Daily Mailand cited
by U.N. official Zainab Bangura.
Below, you can read Tamimi's explanation for why he thinks these
documents are fake, as well as his broader take on why internal documents
will prove important to understanding the Islamic State. Tamini's
statements were sent via email and have been slightly edited for the sake
of clarity.
WorldViews: Do you think Islamic State document hoaxes are particularly
widespread? How many 'real' documents might there be versus hoax
documents, for example?
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A
fake price list for Islamic State sex slaves.
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Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi: One consequence of the rise of the Islamic
State with the development of its administration on the ground over time
— far more sophisticated than anything al-Qaeda in Iraq [the predecessor
of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, which later became the Islamic
State] could offer and controlling much more territory — is that there
are far more Islamic State administrative documents in circulation within
the lands it rules. When one takes this point into account with the rise
of open-source social media channels to broadcast information, it is not
hard to see how many authentic documents end up being leaked to the
public, whether by anti-Islamic State activist groups [such as Raqqa Is
Being Slaughtered Silently and Deir az-Zor 24], local media outlets, or
more obscure individuals, including some Islamic State members.
Indeed, it turns out that at least some of the Islamic State fatwas
being claimed as exclusive revelations from the Abu Sayyaf raid [a raid
conducted in May that led to the death of top Islamic State official Abu
Sayyaf and has recently been cited as
the source for a number of documents] earlier this year were actually
put up by an Islamic State member who called himself Abu Umar al-Masri
around a year ago. At the time I translated and put up some of the fatwas
in my raw archive of Islamic State documents. Cole Bunzel [an expert on
the Islamic State at Princeton University] then summarized all of them.
More recently, the Islamic State has recognized these problems of
leaked information and is accordingly acting to restrict Internet access
and ensure that as much information as possible only enters the public
domain by its approval — mostly in the form of its official propaganda
wings, of course, which still bombard the airwaves on a daily basis with
new releases.
On balance, far more genuine Islamic State documents have publicly
come to light. Generally speaking, the fakes are few in number and fairly
easy to spot if you're familiar with prior specimens.
Is there something about purported internal documents that makes
them especially appealing to experts and analysts, versus the more
typical propaganda and witness accounts?
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This
forgery appears to show that the Islamic State planned to abandon
Iraq's Fallujah province.
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Yes, there is much that is appealing about pursuing this line of
evidence. I think internal documents present a more definitive view of
happenings on the ground rather than witness accounts that are liable to
considerable variation not only from place to place but also individual
to individual, as well as problems of exaggeration and fabrication. Also,
in contrast with the propaganda, internal documents help point to aspects
of shortcomings within the Islamic State's administration that the
Islamic State does not want you to see.
For instance, the Islamic State has acknowledged in its propaganda the
need for more qualified medical personnel to help run its health
department [Diwan al-Siha], but internal
documents show that one problem behind this shortage is brain drain,
such that on multiple occasions the Islamic State has issued threats and
ultimatums to confiscate property of doctors and other medical personnel
who do not return to the Caliphate.
Of course, propaganda is a basic problem beyond the Islamic State,
particularly in the field of jihadism studies, which has to deal with the
fact that this is what so much of the available information actually is.
However, that is not to say analysis of the propaganda yields no
insights: Some of the best work on Islamic State propaganda so far has been
in the form of statistical analysis by theme, definitively debunking the
notion that the propaganda is merely obsessed with gore, brutality and
violence — a perception amplified by popular media coverage of the worst
Islamic State atrocities on camera and video.
Another particularly interesting case of internal documents as a more
solid line of evidence in the case of the Islamic State touches on the
controversy in the spring of this year that claimed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
[the group's leader] was incapacitated. In April, a pro-rebel Twitter
account with access to information in northeast Aleppo province put up an
internal document in which Baghdadi called for
a mobilization in the Syrian provinces to reinforce the fighting
fronts in Anbar and Salahuddin provinces in Iraq.
Sure enough, some three weeks later, an official speech by Baghdadi
was released on the subject of mobilization, and with the subsequent fall
of Ramadi, it is clear the Islamic State was pushing particularly hard to
take Ramadi as the provincial capital of Anbar, while the fighting fronts
in Baiji in northern Salahuddin were being used to pin down Iraqi forces.
I think these developments put to rest the rumors of Baghdadi's
incapacitation that were ultimately based on shaky oral testimony. With
the demand for information on the Islamic State, it can be tempting to
leap on whatever morsels of oral 'insider testimony' might come out, but
verification is extremely difficult.
What are some tell-tale signs that a document has been faked?
The fakes that have been circulated are largely poor in quality. The
forgers seem to be ignorant of Islamic State labeling, there are
recurring motifs, and we see some clear attempts to take jabs at certain
actors perceived to be backing the Islamic State. For instance, two
well-known forgeries — a purported price list for Yazidi and Christian
slaves and an order to withdraw from Iraq — use the label "Islamic
State of Iraq" (the Islamic State's first predecessor to claim the
statehood mantle, which it did in 2006). No authentic document I have
seen since 2013 uses this label, and it is a very obvious error.
Unfortunately, the fact a U.N. official endorsed the price list as
authentic means that the forgery has continued to gain traction in the
media. In terms of recurring motifs, the one I have seen most frequently
concerns supposed orders for withdrawal: Many of these forgeries aim not
only to portray the Islamic State as on the verge of defeat but also try
to depict any abuses by Shiite militias and the Iraqi security forces as
Islamic State fabrications, besides playing on the widespread conspiracy
theory of collusion between the [Persian] Gulf states and the Islamic
State.
In short, I don't think we are at the stage where forgers of Islamic
State documents are becoming sophisticated in techniques. This is unlike
the realms of collecting sports memorabilia and Nazi medals, where fakes
can fool even some of the best authenticators in the industries. I guess
one reason is that the financial incentive for forging Islamic State
documents isn't so great.
What might motivate someone to make and distribute a fake Islamic
State document?
The incentives at present don't seem to be financial. It seems to be
more about playing on popular conspiracy theories, portraying the Islamic
State as on the verge of defeat, and inciting moral outrage and
clickbait.
You mention in your blog post that Col. Steve Warren says that U.S.
analysts believe the document about a withdrawal from Fallujah is real.
Do you think there is any chance they are right?
[Note: In a comment provided
to Foreign Policy after his tweet sparked debate about the legitimacy
of the document, Warren said the document had been discovered by Iraqi
security forces and vetted by U.S. analysts]
I am fully convinced that the document is a forgery despite Warren's
attempts to claim otherwise. I haven't met Warren personally and can't
claim to know for sure what is going through his mind. But there's a
possibility he feels he must stand by the document to avoid public
scandal and fallout, whatever he currently thinks of its actual veracity.
Otherwise, I find it alarming if U.S. analysts actually vetted this document.
The Islamic State already argues that there's a smear campaign
against it. How do these fake documents play into that?
The fake documents only bolster the Islamic State's narrative that its
enemies can only try to discredit the project by lying. This reinforces
the Islamic State's propaganda as the information environment for
sympathizers and supporters, in my view.
What else should we bear in mind when looking at these documents?
Looking at the grand picture, one has to step back and admit the
primary limitation here: Namely, the documents uncovered so far still
only represent a small fraction of documents in existence. If most of the
remaining documents are to enter into the public domain, it is foremost
necessary for the Islamic State project to be defeated. Whatever forces,
if ever, end up expelling the Islamic State from cities like Raqqa and
Mosul will hopefully be wise enough to seize and preserve as many
documents as they can find. In this context, on a smaller scale, the
seizure of files and documents by U.S. Special Forces in the Abu Sayyaf
raid represents a step in the right direction.
Sometimes I am asked why I do not write a book on the Islamic State
based on some of the documents I have obtained. In my view, there is
still a vast wealth of information out there that will take many years at
the minimum to come to light. Writing a book at this stage seems
premature. Just as the best histories of Nazi Germany have been written
well after the Second World War with archives of documents made available
to researchers, so I apply the same reasoning to analyzing the Islamic
State. As researchers we need to be aware of the limits of our
capabilities in obtaining information.
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