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NYT: "A Russian ship left Iran on
Monday carrying almost all of Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium,
fulfilling a major step in the nuclear deal struck last summer and, for
the first time in nearly a decade, apparently leaving Iran with too
little fuel to manufacture a nuclear weapon. The shipment was announced
by Secretary of State John Kerry and confirmed by a spokesman for
Russia's civilian nuclear company, Rosatom. Mr. Kerry called it 'one of
the most significant steps Iran has taken toward fulfilling its
commitment,' and American officials say that it may be only weeks before
the deal reached in July takes effect... Mr. Kerry, in a statement, said
the ship, which Russian officials said was the Mikhail Dudin, carried
25,000 pounds of nuclear material. That included, Mr. Kerry said, the
fuel that was closest to bomb-grade quality: It had been enriched to 20
percent purity... For face-saving purposes, Iran is calling the uranium
shipment part of a 'fuel swap.' But the fuel it is receiving, partly from
Kazakhstan, is natural uranium, which would require substantial
processing to be used for either a nuclear reactor or a weapon. Mr.
Kerry's statement said that with the removal of the fuel, Iran's
'breakout time' - the time needed to produce a weapon - had already moved
from two to three months to six to nine months. Before the deal goes into
effect, that time is supposed to extend to a full year." http://t.uani.com/1YLMAbP
AFP: "Iran said Tuesday it had entered the final
days of completing its commitments under a landmark international deal to
curb its atomic program after it shipped low-enriched uranium to
Russia... Monday's shipment was part of an exchange under which Iran
received natural uranium from Russia and Kazakhstan to be used in nuclear
reactors for future energy production. Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for
Iran's atomic energy agency, said on Tuesday that Iran had received
around 200 tons of yellow cake, a powder obtained in an intermediate step
in the processing of natural uranium ore. The exchange was one of three
major measures Iran had to take to fulfill its end of the nuclear deal,
after the International Atomic Energy Agency earlier this month closed
its file on possible past military dimensions of Tehran's nuclear
program. The other two steps are ensuring a dramatic cut to Tehran's
number of functional centrifuges - fast-spinning machines used to enrich
uranium - and replacing the core of a reactor at its Arak nuclear
facility. Kamalvandi said 'Implementation Day' when almost a decade of
nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be lifted was now near. 'We can
say that everything is set for the final step, which is removing the core
part (of the Arak reactor)' and replacing it with a new one, he said. 'An
agreement has been signed and preparations have been done. If we can
finish the few minor things in the coming days, everything will be
completed.'" http://t.uani.com/1SkMsLp
The Hill: "The Senate is heading toward
round two in the fight over the Iran nuclear deal. Senators are
considering extending a package of sanctions against Tehran set to expire
next year. The sanctions law-known as the Iran Sanctions Act-includes
provisions targeting Iran's nuclear program, as well as ballistic missies
and the country's energy sector. 'I think it's likely that Congress will
act on it sometime next year,' Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), the ranking
member of the Foreign Relations Committee, told The Hill before lawmakers
left for the holiday recess. He said senators suggested during a December
briefing that they were looking at an extension as early as January or
February, trying to get Stephen Mull, Obama's point person on the deal,
to weigh in on the potential timeline. Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said
earlier this month during a Foreign Relations hearing that 'in January
many members of Congress will call for the swift renewal' of the
sanctions law. But that timing could coincide with the deal's
'implementation day,' potentially putting the administration in the
awkward position of trying to lift sanctions against Iran just as
lawmakers try to extend them. Supporters of extending the sanctions law
say it's needed so the administration, or future administrations, has the
ability to 'snap back' sanctions into place if Iran violates the nuclear
deal. They argue that a pair of recent missile tests-which have
frustrated lawmakers in both parties-underscores the worry that Iran will
try to cheat on the nuclear agreement. They are pressing Obama to send a
clear message that he's prepared to hold Tehran accountable, including
leaving the sanctions law on the table. 'How you respond to this
challenge will send a message to the Iranian regime about its compliance
with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,' Sen. Robert Menendez
(D-N.J.) wrote in a letter to Obama this month... He also urged the
president to publicly support legislation he drafted with Sen. Mark Kirk
(R-Ill.) that would provide for a 10-year extension of the Iran Sanctions
Act. That proposal, which is backed by Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ted
Cruz (R-Texas), two presidential contenders, has languished in the
Banking Committee. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), the committee chairman,
however, suggested he backs extending the sanctions. 'Anything to tighten
up on Iran, the behavior that they have exhibited and will exhibit in the
future, they're on the right track,' he said ahead of the recess." http://t.uani.com/1mo5HHc
Nuclear
Program & Agreement
AP: "Norway says it has helped
verify a shipment of 60 tons of raw uranium to Iran as part of an
international deal on Tehran's nuclear program. The Foreign Ministry said
Tuesday that experts from the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority
'verified and controlled the transportation' of the uranium from
Kazakhstan to Iran on Dec. 27. Iran is receiving raw uranium in exchange
for sending most of its low-enriched uranium to Russia under the July 14
nuclear agreement." http://t.uani.com/1MEXDHt
U.S.-Iran
Relations
Tasnim
(Iran):
"Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei highlighted the US deep hostility towards Islam, saying American
officials favor division between the Shiite and Sunni Muslims contrary to
their remarks. 'The incumbent US officials are against Islam in essence,
and contrary to the remarks they make, they are after creating discord
among Muslims,' Ayatollah Khamenei said on Tuesday, in a gathering of
Iranian officials, ambassadors of Islamic countries, and participants at
the Islamic Unity Conference in Tehran... The Leader explained that a clue
to US push for Muslim disunity is creation of the terrorist groups, such
as Daesh (also known as ISIL), which have come into being with the
financial and political supports of those allied with the US. There is no
difference between Shiites and Sunnis in the eyes of Americans, Imam
Khamenei stressed, saying the US opposes 'any Muslim that wants to live
on the basis of Islamic rules and strive for it.' ... The main objective
of the arrogant front is to incite internal wars among Muslims and
destroy infrastructures of the Muslim states, like Syria, Yemen and
Libya, the Supreme Leader warned." http://t.uani.com/1Uf0gFH
RFE/RL: "More than 160 Iranian
lawmakers have signed a draft bill demanding compensation from the United
States for 'damages' it has allegedly 'inflicted on Iran.' The
legislation calls on the Iranian government to take measures to obtain
compensation from the United States for its alleged role in 11 cases,
including the 1953 coup orchestrated by the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA) that restored monarch Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's regime. The bill
also calls for compensation for 'more than 223,000 Iranians [killed] and
600,000 injured' in the 1980-1988 war with Iraq 'due to intelligence,
political, and military cooperation' with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
It also seeks damages over the death of several hundreds of Iranians in
clashes between Iranian pilgrims and Saudi forces in Mecca in 1987, and
in the Hajj stampede in October 'due to America's support for the Saudi
government.' Ahmad Shohani, a member of the parliament's National
Security and Foreign Policy Committee, called the legislation a reaction
to the United States' 'hostile policies,' including the assassination of
Iranian nuclear scientists, which the bill claims were conducted with
'America's assistance.' A total of 166 lawmakers have signed the bill,
'and the number of signatories is increasing,' Shohani said. He added
that it will be submitted to the parliament after the gathering of
signatures has been completed." http://t.uani.com/1OwHAmG
Fars
(Iran):
"Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hossein Jaber Ansari underlined
that despite endorsement of the nuclear agreement, no measurable change
is witnessed in the relations between Tehran and Washington. 'No
fundamental and principled change has been made in the strategic
atmosphere dominating (the interactions between) Iran and the US and it
is a fact that we in Iran and the Americans agree,' Jaber Ansari told
reporters in his weekly press conference in Tehran on Monday. He blasted
a secret budget bill approved by the US Congress to support the Iranian
government's overthrow, and advised the Americans not to repeat the same
old mistakes against Iran. 'Interaction with the Iranian nation and the
Islamic Republic of Iran which is a government based on a big popular
revolution and the great Iranian nation's power and choice is not
possible but through mutual respect and accepting Iran's national
sovereignty,' Jaber Ansari said." http://t.uani.com/1kpZw46
Congressional
Action
The Hill: "Senate Republicans want to
block President Obama from lifting sanctions against Iran over lingering
concerns about possible military dimensions of the country's nuclear
program. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) has introduced legislation that would
block lifting sanctions until after the administration handed over a
wide-ranging report on military aspects of Iran's nuclear program and
certified to Congress that any military-related activity tied to the
program has ended. The legislation - which is currently backed by 10
Republican senators including Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) - would also
require Congress to pass a joint resolution approving the sanctions
relief. The proposal comes as the administration is preparing to lift
sanctions against Iran as part of a deal on its nuclear program as early
as January. The agreement was opposed by every Senate Republican. As part
of a possible military dimension to Iran's nuclear program, Ayotte's
proposal would also require that that the administration certify that
Iran has ended any 'research, development, testing, or fielding' of
ballistic missiles that could carry a nuclear weapon... Ayotte
spearheaded a letter earlier this month, which was signed by 34 of her
Republican colleagues, saying that the administration shouldn't lift
sanctions against Iran in the wake of the tests. Meanwhile, 21 Senate
Democrats are pushing Obama to act unilaterally or with European allies
if the United Nations Security Council fails to reach an agreement on
responding to Iran." http://t.uani.com/1R5JcSX
Sanctions
Relief
Financial
Tribune (Iran):
"The German Euler Hermes credit institution has agreed to establish
a $5 billion credit line for Iran, Mohammad Khazai deputy minister of
economy said Saturday. The credit is to be granted over 2-3 years. Hermes
had previously guaranteed some loans for Iran but the country was unable
to meet its commitments due to the international sanctions and lack of
access to SWIFT interbank messaging service. 'We have agreed to pay
Hermes over $500 million over the course of one year as soon as the
economic sanctions are eased,' Khazai told Fars News Agency... 'We have
held some preliminary talks with EKF, Denmark's official export credit
agency, the Italian SACE group, the German Euler Hermes and the UK's
Export Finance to prepare the grounds for persuading international banks
and lending institutions to grant credit to and establish credit lines
for Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1R5QQNh
Press TV
(Iran): "Iran's
media said on 27 December that the Anglo-Dutch energy giant Shell plans
to repay a major debt of $3 billion to Iran in the near future. Mohammad
Khazaei, Iran's deputy finance minister and the president of the
Organization for Investment Economic and Technical Assistance of Iran,
has said that he has raised the issue of Shell's debt to Iran in a
meeting with officials from UK's Treasury. 'Based on the remarks by
officials from UK's Treasury, Shell's debts will be paid to Iran as soon
as the sanctions against the country are lifted,' Khazaei has been quoted
as saying by the Persian-language newspaper Iran. The company had
announced earlier in August that it will repay a debt worth $2 billion to
the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) when sanctions against the
country are lifted. It had also said that it will consider investing in
the Iranian energy sector in a post-sanctions era. Shell's outstanding
debt to Iran is a result of Iranian oil deliveries which it had been
unable to reimburse as a result of the sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1mgjv77
Mehr
(Iran): "North
Azadegan development project manager has announced that China's CNPC will
carry out the development project for the oilfield's second phase.
Keramat Behbahani referred to the selection of contractor for the
oilfield's development project adding 'according to a reached agreement,
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will develop the second phase
of the field.'" http://t.uani.com/1OqSHXM
IRNA
(Iran): "National
Iranian Drilling Company (NIDC) has signed a memorandum of understanding
with the subsidiaries of the Italian Company ENI which will be
implemented following removal of sanctions. NIDC Vice-President
Mohammad-Reza Takayedi said Saturday on the sidelines of a Home-Made Oil
Equipment Exhibition that the company should drill 40 wells in South
Azadegan oilfield, of which 25 have already been completed. The project
will be delivered to National Iranian Oil Company in the second half of
the next Iranian year (to start on March 21) to start production phase,
he said." http://t.uani.com/1OqSNyK
Deutsche
Welle: "German
companies look forward to the end of economic sanctions on Iran, which
used to be an important trading partner. One family-owned firm
specializing in extraction technology invited potential business partners
from Iran to visit their company in southern Germany." http://t.uani.com/1R5Q9na
Plastic
News: "Ten
years ago, half of the imported plastics and rubber machines sold in Iran
came from Germany. Today, after years of punishing and isolating
sanctions over Iran's nuclear programs, it's virtually zero. But with
those sanctions looking like they will lift in early 2016, Germany's
machinery industry, like many, is keenly interested in getting back
through that door. With that in mind, the German plastics and rubber
machinery trade association VDMA held its Iran German Plast 2015
conference in Tehran Dec. 7-8. VDMA said 500 people attended, the
majority from Iranian plastics processing companies. 'Iran used to be one
of the top sales destinations for German machinery,' said Thorsten
Kühmann, managing director of VDMA's plastic and rubber machinery
committee, in comments that VDMA prepared for the Tehran conference and
that it shared with Plastics News... Some sectors, like extrusion
machinery, saw a big increase in Chinese and Turkish machinery after the
sanctions started to bite. China also did well exporting injection
molding machines. 'Chinese injection molding machinery producers have
gained market share in Iran dramatically, especially this year,' said Engel
CEO Peter Neumann. 'It has something to do with financing: Iran is the
main supplier of crude oil for China and there is an instrument applied
on using export of crude oil to finance purchase of machines.' He noted
Engel maintained its services organization in Iran with a local partner
during the sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1OiPZId
Opinion
& Analysis
William
McGurn in WSJ:
"On Thursday night as the ball drops in Times Square, millions of
Americans watching on TV will join the revelers in Manhattan to celebrate
the new year. For other Americans, alas, the arrival of Jan. 1 will mark
only the beginning of another year behind Iranian bars. It's long past time
to bring these men home. At last year's White House welcome for Bowe
Bergdahl-the soldier who walked away from his combat post in Afghanistan
and will soon be tried for desertion and misbehavior before the
enemy-President Obama did manage to refer to other Americans 'unjustly
detained abroad' who also 'deserve to be reunited with their families.'
So what has happened since? Last summer, scarcely a year after that Rose
Garden ceremony, Secretary of State John Kerry announced a nuclear deal
with Tehran. The agreement puts the Iranians on a path to a bomb and
releases billions of dollars that had been frozen by sanctions. But no
American walked free. When asked on MSNBC's 'Morning Joe' about these
prisoners, Mr. Kerry answered this way: 'There was not a meeting that
took place, not one meeting that took place-believe me, that's not an
exaggeration-where we did not raise the issue of our American citizens
being held.' Mr. Kerry is oblivious to the obvious: If what he says is
true, it only confirms his impotence. Back when the nukes deal was being
negotiated, the idea was that an agreement would clear the way for these
Americans to be freed. That hasn't happened, and it hasn't happened
because the Iranians are not stupid. As Commentary's Jonathan Tobin noted
recently, 'Each American prisoner makes Iran that much more confident
that nothing it does will tempt Obama to stop the deal.' This helps
explain why Iran in October convicted a Washington Post reporter of bogus
espionage charges, after the deal was reached. Indeed, that same month
Iran arrested an Iranian-American businessman named Siamak Namazi. The
reporter's name is Jason Rezaian, and he has been held captive for more
than 500 days since his arrest. A year ago, Mr. Kerry released a
statement saying he was 'personally dismayed and disturbed' by the
charges against Mr. Rezaian. Unfortunately, Mr. Kerry's personal dismay
hasn't disturbed the Iranians. Robert Levinson is another story. The
former FBI agent disappeared in Iran in 2007 while on a half-baked CIA mission.
The Iranians say they don't know what happened to Mr. Levinson, the
father of seven. At one point he was written off as dead, until photos
surfaced showing him alive. And now Mr. Kerry expects a regime that won't
come clean about Mr. Levinson to be forthcoming about its nuclear
program? Amir Hekmati is an American-born Marine veteran arrested in Iran
in 2011 while visiting his grandmother. He has kept up the fight from
prison, at one point smuggling out a letter in which he said that a
televised confession he'd made had been done under duress-and asked Mr.
Kerry to reject any overture from Tehran to trade him for Iranian
operatives held in the U.S. Saeed Abedini is another detained
Iranian-American and a convert to Christianity. Though Iran claims to
respect the right of Christian worship, Christians are harassed and Mr.
Abedini was arrested when he returned to Iran to build an orphanage. Such
are the menaces to Iran these days. He has been in jail since 2012. It's
important to repeat these names-loudly, frequently and in public. The
reason is that such Americans have no natural constituency pleading for
them, outside of their families and the occasional congressman... The
only real protection for our vulnerable citizens abroad is this: The
certainty among bad guys that they will pay a swift and severe price for
molesting an American citizen. In the first Iranian hostage crisis, Jimmy
Carter at least made Iran pay by banning Iranian imports and freezing its
assets. In this new hostage crisis, by contrast, the Americans held
prisoner are paying off for Iran, not only by making it harder for Mr.
Obama to punish any Iranian cheating on the nuclear deal but in the
regime's access to tens of billions in unfrozen assets. Why should Iran
change a winning hand?" http://t.uani.com/1mgopRB
J.
Matthew McInnis in TNI: "Congressional leaders are angry at the lack response
by the White House to Iran's provocative October 11 medium range
ballistic missile test. The United Nations determined the launch was a
violation of Security Council resolutions, just days before the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran's nuclear program was
adopted by Tehran and the world powers. U.S. Senator Bob Corker has
accused the Obama administration of being unwilling to punish Tehran for
fear of undermining the nuclear deal or 'empowering hardliners' before
critical domestic elections in February. But can the United States really
have that kind of impact on Iranian politics? The short answer is no.
Ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, U.S. leaders have looked for ways
to influence perceived factions of the Iranian government, with little if
any success. The Iran-Contra Affair in the 1980s to free American
hostages in Lebanon was driven in part by the Reagan administration's
belief that there were moderate politicians in Tehran open to
rapprochement with the United States. President Clinton's secret outreach
to reformist President Mohammad Khatami in the late 1990s foundered when
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC) strongly objected to Khatami accepting the overture.
President Obama, perhaps learning from these experiences, focused on
communicating with Khamenei directly rather than through hardline
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or rival factions within the regime. This
philosophy likely underpinned the White House's tepid response to the
Green Movement after Ahmadinejad's contested reelection in 2009. No doubt
fearing public U.S. support for the protestors would anger the Supreme
Leader and fuel hardliners, the president issued only a few strongly
worded statements. The approach did not show results, however, until
Khamenei finally demonstrated interest in getting out from the crippling
nuclear sanctions imposed in 2012. Regardless of Obama's caution, change
ultimately had to come from within. The election of President Hassan
Rouhani in 2013 and the beginning of the nuclear talks reignited
Washington's impulse to navigate Tehran's complex internal politics. It
became almost conventional wisdom in the West-partly fueled by Iranian
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's own comments to the media-that the Supreme
Leader had Rouhani on a very short leash to reach a nuclear accord, and
that the IRGC and other hardliners were poised to sabotage him if he made
too many concessions at the negotiating table. American and European
diplomats, always wary of pushing too far, felt they needed to walk a tightrope
with their Iranian counterparts. Tehran's commitment to finding a nuclear
deal was never that fragile, though. (This perception was likely
generated by Tehran as a negotiating tactic to minimize U.S. and European
pressure to make more significant concessions.) The Supreme Leader
constantly expressed his doubts about the trustworthiness of the U.S.
side, but he showed consistent support for Zarif's efforts throughout the
process. Khamenei and Rouhani also share a long history and strong bond.
Whatever qualms the IRGC leadership may have had about a deal never
materialized as a serious sticking point... This does not mean that the
United States has nothing at stake in the current debates and maneuvers
in Tehran. On the contrary, the elections in February will have a
potentially huge influence on Iran's future direction. The vote will not
only determine a new Parliament (which could significantly strengthen the
moderate camp), but also select a new Assembly of Experts, the body that
will choose Khamenei's successor. Various factions will almost certainly
use Iran's post-deal relationship with the West as a political football.
But any impact on the elections from U.S. actions-whether conciliatory or
punitive-will be dwarfed by the real factors currently driving Iranian
politics: expectations of economic improvement and reform,
anti-corruption sentiment, fears of cultural infiltration and social
subversion from the West, positioning for the post-Khamenei era, along
with-as always-raw ambition and ego. The bottom line is that Washington
should be neither spooked nor enamored by the possibility of affecting
real or perceived factional contests in Tehran. Instead, the United
States should recognize that Iranian foreign policy is fairly coherent
and consistent. The recent report from the International Crisis Group on
Iran after the nuclear deal perhaps puts it best: 'Though the Iranian
polity is anything but unitary, the West should treat it as such and
avoid taking sides in an internal debate that outside actors repeatedly
have proven unable to manipulate successfully.' It is hubris to think
otherwise." http://t.uani.com/1ZzxDGR
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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