Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Eye on Iran: Nuclear Talks Bogging Down as Iran Balks at Key Decisions






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LAT: "Talks over Iran's nuclear program are bogging down because Tehran's negotiators are reluctant to put in writing previous concessions that may be deeply unpopular at home, current and former diplomats said Tuesday. With the negotiations' June 30 deadline about a month away, the Iranian team is balking at important decisions, saying it wants to leave them for top officials who are to arrive just before the deadline, Gerard Araud, the French ambassador to the United States, said on a panel at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. As a result, it is now 'very likely' that deal won't be completed until early July, Araud said. If an agreement is reached, additional time may be required to put the general terms of the deal into specific technical language, he said. 'It's going to be extremely complicated,' he said. 'We could have a sort of fuzzy end to the negotiations.' ... Peter Wittig, Germany's ambassador to the United States, who also appeared at the Atlantic Council, also noted the slowdown in the talks, saying they had been proceeding 'at a rather slow pace on the expert level.' 'The most difficult path may lie ahead of us,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1HLr0sn

Reuters: "A self-imposed deadline of June 30 for Iran and six major powers to reach a final nuclear deal to resolve a decade-long standoff may be extended, Iran's state TV reported... 'The deadline might be extended and the talks might continue after the June 30 (deadline),' Iranian senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi was quoted as saying. 'We are not bound to a specific time. We want a good deal that covers our demands.' ... 'The talks are serious, complicated and detailed. The pace of talks is slow as we have entered final stages,' Araqchi said upon his arrival in Vienna, state TV reported." http://t.uani.com/1Qa4BqG

FP: "Gerard Araud, the French ambassador to the United States, says an emerging nuclear deal with Iran will impose tough restrictions on the Islamic Republic and improve regional security across the Middle East. But on Tuesday, Araud acknowledged that it could also pose a potential risk: spurring an array Arab countries to develop their own civilian nuclear programs. 'For me, that's one of the major weak points of the agreement we are negotiating because let's be frank: the agreement is not perfect,' Araud said at an Atlantic Council event in Washington. 'It's a compromise. Any agreement is a compromise.' Araud, joined by his British and German counterparts, insisted that Western negotiators in Switzerland wrested the maximum amount of concessions from Iran as possible. Their joint appearance was the latest indication that a final nuclear deal with Tehran is likely to happen this summer, though perhaps not by the June 30 deadline." http://t.uani.com/1Qa2mDH

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Reuters: "France's foreign minister said on Wednesday his country would not back any nuclear deal with Iran unless it provided full access to all installations, including military sites. 'France will not accept (a deal) if it is not clear that inspections can be done at all Iranian installations, including military sites,' Laurent Fabius told lawmakers. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week ruled out international inspection of Iran's military sites or access to nuclear scientists under any nuclear agreement. Iran's military leaders echoed his remarks. Fabius said he wanted other countries negotiating with Iran in the framework of the so-called P5+1 - also including Britain, China, Germany, Russia and the United States - to adopt France's position." http://t.uani.com/1J5ote6

AP: "Moscow and Washington are close to agreement on a formula that bridges differences over U.S. demands to quickly re-impose U.N. sanctions on Iran if Tehran violates its commitments under a nuclear deal, officials told The Associated Press Tuesday. Such an understanding would resolve a U.S.-Russian dispute that threatened to scuttle an agreement meant to impose long term cuts on Iran's nuclear programs in exchange for sanctions relief. Washington sees a 'snap-back' mechanism that allows previously lifted sanctions to be quickly reinstated as a cornerstone of any deal. Ben Rhodes, U.S. President Barack Obama's deputy national security adviser, told reporters last week that such a concept remained 'the basic premise of our approach to sanctions.' ... Comments by France's ambassador to Washington Tuesday hinted at the possible compromise being worked on. Gerard Araud said no structure was yet in place for snapping back sanctions but the basic premise would entail a majority vote of the five permanent Security Council members - the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France. That would be at variance with the usual rule of consensus. Still, it could ease Russian and Chinese opposition to the 'snap-back' principle." http://t.uani.com/1Rnzc6B

Bloomberg: "Sanctions against Iran's economy are likely to erode if talks to curb Iran's nuclear program fail or U.S. lawmakers try to block an international agreement, according to the U.K. and German envoys to Washington. 'You're already seeing a number of countries which of course don't respect the embargo on oil,' U.K. Ambassador Peter Westmacott said Tuesday, referring to half a dozen economies with an exemption from U.S. sanctions that lets them import Iranian crude, as well as companies that have sought to evade bans on trade... Sanctions on Iran have probably reached 'the high water mark,' the British envoy said. 'You would probably see more sanctions erosion' if the talks collapse, unless the failure were 'clearly, incontrovertibly' Iran's fault. 'If diplomacy fails, then the sanctions regime might unravel,' German Ambassador Peter Wittig said. 'It depends on who's to blame if there's no deal.' Some would view a move by the U.S. Congress 'blocking this deal' as a 'trigger' to stop observing sanctions, he warned." http://t.uani.com/1PNdeMU

Al-Monitor: "Iranian parliament members who attended a closed-door session with Iranian negotiators say Iran has accepted 'managed inspections' of military sites. While the negotiators have denied it, some Iranian media commentators remain unconvinced. Javad Karimi-Ghodousi, a member of parliament's influential National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Fars News Agency on May 24 that Iranian nuclear negotiator and Deputy Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi said, 'Inspections of military sites within the Additional Protocols has been accepted, but these inspections will be managed and this management will be conducted with seriousness.' ... A number of other Iranian parliament members also said that Araghchi made similar comments, forcing Iran's Foreign Ministry - which is responsible for the nuclear negotiations - to release a statement May 24 regarding reports about Iran having accepted inspections at nuclear sites. The statement read, 'At the closed-door session, [Foreign Minister] Mohammad Javad Zarif and I emphasized our opposition to inspections or visits of any military site or interviews with nuclear scientists, and explained that during the entirety of the negotiations essentially any path to abuse has been closed.' The statement continued, 'The procedures for work within the Additional Protocols for managed access to nuclear sites was described,' going on to add that comments attributed to him about the inspections of military sites were 'incorrect.'" http://t.uani.com/1AtHZQ8

AP: "Iranians have been captivated by a video circulating on social media this week that shows a hard-line lawmaker trading barbs with the country's foreign minister over the ongoing nuclear negotiations with world powers. The video, which surfaced Monday, shows Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and hard-line lawmaker Mahdi Kouchakzadeh in a heated exchange, apparently at the end of a closed session of parliament. The hard-liner calls Zarif a 'traitor,' claiming he speaks for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which then prompts an angry reaction from the minister, who becomes obviously upset and chastises the lawmaker saying he has no right to speak for the country's top leader." http://t.uani.com/1SBWEOZ

AFP: "Russia on Tuesday confirmed its decision to deliver S-300 air defence missile systems to Iran, but said it could not yet announce a date. 'The decision on delivering S-300 to Iran has been taken but the realisation of the project will take some time,' Yevgeny Lukyanov, deputy head of Russia's security council, was quoted by Russian agencies as saying. 'As I understand, the time of delivery has not come yet,' he said. Talks on the controversial deal, which has been frozen since 2010, finished Monday with Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian pronouncing them a 'success'... The decision sparked condemnation from Israel and concern from Washington, as it came before the lifting of the sanctions by the UN Security Council, which originally caused Moscow to freeze the deal. Now Russia is arguing that the missile system is exclusively defensive and does not even fall under the sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1LJ1F3A

AP: "A senior U.S. official has joined nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers with little more than a month until the deadline for a deal. The talks resumed in Vienna Wednesday, with negotiators working on a main document and technical annexes outlining how it will be implemented. Most recent meetings have involved technical experts rather than diplomats. But U.S. Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman has joined two Iranian deputy foreign ministers and a senior European Union official for this round as the talks move into the final stretch." http://t.uani.com/1BoZ1d4

Tehran Times: "President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday draw an analogy between the Iranian nuclear negotiators and fighters who liberated the city of Khorramshahr in 1982, saying there are 'new Khorramshahrs' to be liberated by the Iranian 'political commanders'. He made the remarks during a ceremony in Tehran to commemorate the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr... The president also described the Western-led sanctions against Iran as a kind of 'economic' and 'scientific' occupation. 'We should liberate all of our occupied economic and scientific lands from the enemy as new Khorramshahrs and cities of blood,' he stated. There are 'new Khorramshahrs' that the Iranian people are determined to liberate, he reiterated." http://t.uani.com/1J5nlHf

AP: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Tuesday that a nuclear-armed Iran would be 'a thousand times more dangerous and more destructive' than the Islamic State group, his office said. 'As horrific as ISIS is, once Iran, the preeminent terrorist state of our time, acquires nuclear weapons, it will be a hundred times more dangerous, a thousand times more dangerous and more destructive than ISIS,' Netanyahu said, referring to IS... 'As we are meeting, the P5+1 talks are reconvening, and I'm afraid they're rushing to what I consider is a very bad deal,' Netanyahu told US Senator Bill Cassidy, in remarks relayed by the Israeli premier's office. 'I see no reason to rush to a deal and certainly not a bad deal that paves Iran's path to the bomb, but also fills Iran's coffers with tens of billions of dollars to pursue its aggression throughout the Middle East and around Israel's borders,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1evu0zv

Sanctions Relief


Press TV (Iran): "The official's comments came as Iran is getting ready to host the biggest international conference on mines and mineral industries to be attended by companies from 27 countries. The event dubbed 'Iran Mines and Mining Industries Summit (IMIS 2015),' will be held from May 31 to June 1, 2015, in the Iranian capital city of Tehran. On May 13, deputy minister of industry, mine and trade, Mehdi Karbasian, said 284 domestic companies will be also present in the conference, during which more than 200 mineral projects ready for investment will be presented. Karbasian, who also heads the board of Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO), added that the conference will be attended by foreign companies from 27 countries, including Germany, Sweden, Finland, China, India, Japan and Canada." http://t.uani.com/1JVlIwF

Yemen Crisis

Reuters: "Iran's foreign minister urged rival Saudi Arabia to end its military campaign in Yemen, saying the war would 'bring harm' to the kingdom, Iran's official IRNA news agency reported on Wednesday. Iran has repeatedly condemned a Saudi-led air offensive against Yemen's Houthi movement, launched in March after the Tehran-allied fighters began battling forces loyal to exiled President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi for control of the country. Zarif's remarks from Kuwait, where he was attending a meeting of the Islamic Organisation Conference (IOC), was one of Tehran's most direct attempts yet to engage Gulf Arab countries on the crisis in Yemen. 'We say to our Saudi brothers that we want a brighter future for all countries in the region, and what they are doing in Yemen will end up harming them,' Zarif was quoted as saying... In an open letter published in Kuwaiti newspapers, Zarif called for dialogue between Tehran and its Arab neighbors to resolve the region's crises." http://t.uani.com/1evs4qz

Free Beacon: "Iran has dispatched additional paramilitary forces to Yemen to aid pro-Tehran rebels seeking to take control of the strategic southern Arabian state, according to recent U.S. intelligence reports. The Iranian leadership earlier this month ordered militants from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) Quds Force, along with Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, to Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states are seeking to defeat an insurgency led by Houthi rebels that currently control large parts of the country. The influx of Iranian forces was outlined in several classified intelligence reports circulated within government over the past two weeks, said U.S. officials familiar with the reports... Estimates put the number of both Iranian and Iraqi Shi'ite forces helping the Houthis in Yemen at around 5,000 people. The number of Lebanese Hezbollah members in Yemen is not known. On Sunday, Quds Force Deputy Commander, Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghani was quoted as confirming the fact that the IRGC is training Yemenis... 'The defenders of Yemen have been trained under the banner of the Islamic Republic and the enemies cannot deal with Yemeni fighters.' It was the first official reference to Iran's training of the Houthis in Yemen." http://t.uani.com/1AxOocQ

Human Rights

WashPost: "Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian went on trial Tuesday on espionage and other charges in a closed Tehran courtroom more than 10 months after he was imprisoned, but the proceedings were adjourned without any indication of when they would resume. The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported that Abolghassem Salavati, a judge known for draconian sentences, read the four-count indictment in a two-hour session in Tehran's Revolutionary Court. The semiofficial Mehr News Agency said Rezaian roundly denied having done anything outside the normal activities of a news reporter. 'I am a journalist, and all of my activities have been conducted as a journalist, and all were legal,' Mehr quoted him as saying when the judge asked about his contacts with U.S. Consulate officials in Dubai, where Rezaian's family says he was seeking a visa for his Iranian-born wife." http://t.uani.com/1AtKdPG

NYT: "But with the espionage trial now underway in a closed Tehran court against Jason Rezaian - The Washington Post's Iran correspondent, who has been imprisoned since July- speculation has intensified that the facts of the case, or lack of them, will have little bearing on the outcome. Iran has many laws that are written so vaguely they can be applied to almost any situation, and it remains possible that Mr. Rezaian did, intentionally or not, violate some aspect of Iran's legal code simply by gathering information - doing his job as a journalist. Yet if history is a guide, his fate may be tied to Iranian political tensions and calculations in the estranged relations between Iran and the United States that may have nothing to do with the accusations, according to political experts, relatives of prisoners and former prisoners." http://t.uani.com/1Ko4xlp

IranWire: "The Revolutionary Guards' Intelligence Unit obtained a forced confession from Jason Rezaian under duress in September 2014. An Iranian security official who withheld his name due to the sensitivity of the case told IranWire that the Guards pushed Rezaian to confess in order to 'influence Iran's nuclear negotiations with Western powers, including the United States.' Maziar Bahari's 2012 film Forced Confessions pulls the mask off a regime that brutally extracts lies from its citizens - not criminals, but writers, journalists, and scholars. Bahari, who was forced to confess following his arrest in 2009, tells the story of the Iranian regime's attempt to legitimize its rule through force. And, as the case of Jason Rezaian highlights, the regime continues to use this tactic to intimidate and isolate journalists for simply reporting the truth." http://t.uani.com/1FgbykF

Foreign Affairs

AFP: "Iran said on Tuesday it had foiled a cyber-attack on the Islamic republic's oil ministry, and that those behind the hacking attempt were based in the United States. The Fars news agency cited Brigadier General Kamal Hadianfar, head of the cyber police, as saying the unit had thwarted 'the hackers' attack on the oil ministry'. He said the source of the attempt was in the United States, and that the US authorities had been informed. 'The IP address for these hackers was in America,' he said, adding that 'an international judicial order' had been sent to the United States, without elaborating. Hadianfar said the hacking attempt took place over a four-day period at the start of the new Iranian year which began on March 20." http://t.uani.com/1J5cA7S

Opinion & Analysis

Samuel Berger, Stephen Hadley, James Jeffrey, Dennis Ross & Robert Satloff in Politico: "There are two main external threats to the Middle East state system. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as ISIS or the Islamic State, embodies the most direct threat, particularly with its declaration of a caliphate designed to replace existing states. The Islamic Republic of Iran also constitutes a threat, perhaps not as blatant in its assault but no less real. It uses its militia proxies to undermine states and deny them authority throughout their territory, a process that has already given Tehran leverage over four Arab capitals - Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa... On ISIL, President Barack Obama has made clear that the challenge is more than a military one, although providing military support to governments fighting ISIL on the ground is critical. But military action is only one dimension; ISIL cannot be defeated unless it is also discredited. Only Muslims can undermine ISIL's fanatical ideology, and they must take the lead in doing so. Ultimately, U.S. strategy depends on inflicting setbacks on ISIL while building a broad coalition of partners in support of Arab-based efforts to defeat it. The loss of Ramadi, the capital of Iraq's Anbar province, underscores the enormity and the urgency of this challenge. Some see such a coalition as offering the possibility of bringing the Iranians and the Saudis together in their common enmity toward ISIL. Although the traditional view that 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend' might apply to Sunni readiness to cooperate covertly with Israel, it does not work for the Saudis, Emiratis, Bahrainis and others when it comes to the Iranians. They see their struggle against Iran in existential terms, and the more the Iranians seem to be intent on encircling Saudi Arabia, the more the Saudis and other Arabs will position themselves to counter Tehran. This objective is so fundamental to them that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and others have now agreed to mobilize an Arab force - not to fight Israel but to counter Iran-backed militias and, perhaps, jihadi forces. We, too, have to judge the Iranians based on their behavior. Iran will surely fight to prevent ISIL's domination in Syria and Iraq, an arena in which our objectives converge and our operations may sometimes run in parallel. But while tactical points of convergence are possible, the Iranian strategic view of the region is fundamentally at odds with ours. Perhaps this outlook could be different if economic integration with the outside world and internal aspirations cause Iran to alter its strategic objectives in the region. But we need to judge Iran on how it acts. The most powerful elements in Iran today still see the United States as their enemy. This is not simply because of a conspiratorial mind-set about American determination to subvert the Islamic Republic, but also because they see America as the main impediment to their domination of the region. Even if the U.S. seeks to reassure them about its aims, they are highly unlikely to believe it unless the U.S. is prepared to acquiesce in their regional hegemony. The combination of their interest in weakening the state structures of their Sunni adversaries and the belief of our traditional friends that they are locked in an existential conflict with Iran should give us pause about partnering with the Iranians and the Iran-backed Shiite militias in the fight against ISIL. Ultimately, if the U.S. hopes to mobilize Sunni Arab populations of Iraq and Syria in opposition to ISIL - an essential element to marginalizing it - Iran cannot be seen as a presumed ally. That would pre-empt any serious Sunni effort to delegitimize ISIL, put the Sunni states on the defensive and, worst of all, increase the prospect that ISIL will present itself as the only real protector of the Sunnis. To be sure, the Saudis have a history of playing a negative role in proselytizing the ideology of Sunni extremism. Today, however, they recognize they have a stake in combating its most radical elements. And unlike the Iranians, the Saudis also see the danger of undermining the state system in the Middle East." http://t.uani.com/1Bp3UTJ

Michael Tomlinson in The Daily Caller: "In Las Vegas earlier this month, the 'Fight of the Century' took place with Floyd Mayweather winning the welterweight championship over Manny Pacquiao with a display of his textbook defensive boxing skills that kept his aggressive opponent at bay, earning him the unified title. While Mayweather raked in a reported $200 million for a night's work, Trita Parsi, the head of the National Iranian-American Council, was also hard at work playing defense, earning his money protecting the Iranian regime's façade of 'moderation'. In Politico, Parsi was ducking questions over some rather bizarre comments made in Iranian state media, including the whopper that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was caught meeting with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the founder and self-declared caliph of ISIS. The photo used by Tehran to 'prove' its ludicrous charge was so clearly doctored it would be laughable were it not part of a recurring pattern of propaganda efforts by the regime to portray Iran as aggrieved, threatened, and beset upon by the U.S. Such a posture gives Iran the ability to take actions - propaganda and otherwise - in the name of defending the Islamic nation from its enemies, real or imagined. In an even more bizarre twist, after months of dithering the Iranian regime finally accused imprisoned Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian of espionage, but ironically charged him with working with the NIAC as proof of his spying. The regime claimed conversations Rezaian had with Parsi through Twitter was evidence enough. Parsi was left in the uncomfortable situation of having to deny that Rezaian was working with the NIAC, while at the same time correcting the New York Times characterization of the NIAC as being 'supportive of Iran' on all issues. Mayweather has nothing on this guy. Granted it's been a tough year for Parsi and company. They had a defamation suit they filed to combat charges that they colluded with the Iranian regime thrown out of court. Parsi was sanctioned for $183,000 for misconduct during the trial, including withholding key pieces of evidence. Parsi has long been a stooge of Tehran. In the summer of 2007, Parsi embarked on a campaign to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the State Department's terrorist list. The designation of Iran's Guards Corp was in response to Iranian infiltration in Iraq, and in particular their direct role in killing hundreds of American soldiers by supplying Shia extremists with improvised explosive devices (IED).  Parsi argued: 'The White House's decision to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization could deal a double blow to efforts to utilize diplomacy with Iran to stabilize Iraq.  Not only does the designation risk undermining the important yet limited talks between the United States and Iran in Baghdad, but it may also negatively impact the next U.S. president's ability to seek diplomacy with Iran by further entrenching U.S.-Iran relations in a paradigm of enmity.'" http://t.uani.com/1FYABi1
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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