The Long War Journal (Site-Wide)

Analysis: Former US Marine killed by Islamic State's Tripoli 'province'

Posted: 28 Jan 2015 12:33 PM PST

Note: A version of this article was first published at The Weekly Standard.

Two gunmen entered the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli Tuesday morning. When their shooting rampage was over, at least ten people had been killed. For jihadists in Libya, the hotel was an inviting target. Foreign diplomats, Western tourists and officials from Libya's rival governments are known to frequent it. Indeed, the victims were five foreigners, including an American, and five Libyans.

The American killed in the attack has been identified as David Berry. According to The New York Daily News, Berry is a former US Marine who worked as a security contractor for Crucible, LLC. The company's web site says that Crucible "provides high-risk environment training and global security solutions to employees of the U.S. Government, NGOs, and multinational corporations who live and work in dangerous and austere locations worldwide." The company has not identified the client Berry was working for at the time of his death.

In the past, it could take weeks or months for a terrorist organization to take credit for an attack. Sometimes there is no claim of responsibility at all. Before the siege of the Corinthia Hotel had even been ended, however, a group calling itself the Islamic State's province in Tripoli claimed on Twitter (see image above) that the attack was the work of its members. In short order, the group posted photos of the two gunmen (seen on the right), identifying one as a Tunisian and the other as being from the Sudan.

The Islamic State, an al Qaeda offshoot that controls much of Iraq and Syria as a self-declared "caliphate," announced the establishment of several "provinces" in North Africa and the Middle East in November of last year. The group's provinces are more aspirational than real, as none of them controls much territory.

Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, who heads the Islamic State, argues that all other jihadist groups, and indeed all Muslims, in his provinces' territories owe him their loyalty now that the caliphate has expanded. From Baghdadi's perspective, this means that more established jihadist groups, such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, are now null and void. AQAP, which rejects Baghdadi's assumed role as "Caliph Ibrahim I," naturally takes offense to the Islamic State's proclamations. An already heated rivalry became even testier after the Islamic State's announcement in November.

Baghdadi's international sway is often exaggerated. The Islamic State has failed to usurp the power of organizations such as AQAP and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), both of which remain loyal to al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri. AQIM and its allies maintain a strong presence in Libya. And we cannot be sure how much of an operational relationship there is between the Islamic State's headquarters in Iraq or Syria and the groups that fight in Baghdadi's name in Libya and elsewhere.

Regardless, the Islamic State's international network, and the threat it poses to American interests, is real. The establishment of "provinces," which was intended to cut into al Qaeda's dominant share of the global jihadist market, has had some success.

In fact, Berry is not the first American victim of the Islamic State's provinces.

Late last year, the Islamic State's province in the Sinai claimed responsibility for the death of a petroleum worker named William Henderson. The Sinai province was formed by a faction of another group, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis (ABM), which split over the rivalry between al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Henderson was actually killed in August 2014, before ABM's Sinai presence officially swore allegiance to the Islamic State's Baghdadi. But there are credible reports of cooperation between ABM and the Islamic State before their formal alliance.

The Sinai province has launched a string of attacks already this year, focusing on Egyptian security forces and others.

Earlier this week, Islamic State spokesman Abu Muhammad al Adnani, announced the formation of a province in the "Khorasan," a geographical region that covers Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of neighboring countries. A former Pakistani Taliban leader was named as the Khorasan province's "governor." His deputy governor is a former Guantanamo detainee known as Abdul Rauf Khadim.

The Islamic State's Khorasan province is not the strongest jihadist organization in its home turf. The Taliban, al Qaeda and their allies have a much firmer foothold in South Asia. And the Khorasan province's leaders include jihadists who lost internal power struggles in their previous organizations, paving the way for the Islamic State to garner their allegiance. Khadim, for example, was once a senior Taliban commander. After Khadim was forced out of the Taliban, Khadim and his supporters threw their lot in with Baghdadi. It wasn't the pull of the Islamic State that led Khadim to switch allegiances, so much as the Taliban's push, which was caused by Khadim's disagreements with his fellow jihadists.

Still, Khadim has been an effective commander and the Khorasan province is already active in southern Afghanistan. There have been skirmishes between Baghdadi's followers and their rivals in the Taliban, which is clearly gunning for Khadim. One report says that the Taliban has captured Khadim and dozens of his followers, but that has not been confirmed.

In the months to come, the Islamic State's provinces will claim more victims, including perhaps more Americans.

Hezbollah kills two Israeli soldiers in anti-tank missile attack

Posted: 28 Jan 2015 12:55 PM PST

Hezbollah killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded seven more in an attack on a armored unit that was patrolling near Mt. Dov at the border between Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. The group has claimed credit for the attack.

"The IDF has confirmed that during today's attack, Hezbollah militants fired 5 anti-tank missiles at the patrolling force near Mt. Dov. One soldier and one officer," a company commander, "were killed," the Israeli Defense Forces stated on its blog. "Seven additional IDF soldiers were injured, two of them moderately. The injured soldiers were evacuated to a hospital."

"The IDF responded to attacks with combined aerial and ground strikes at Hezbollah operational positions," the Israeli military stated.

According to Reuters, a Spanish peacekeeper was killed during retaliatory air and artillery strikes against Hezbollah. It is unclear if any of the group's fighters were killed.

Hezbollah claimed the attack via Al Manar, the the group's official news outlet.

"At 11:25 this morning, the Quneitra Heroic Martyrs group, of the Islamic Resistance, targeted an Israeli military convoy in the Shebaa Farms composed of several vehicles transporting Zionist officers and soldiers," the statement said. "Several vehicles were destroyed, and casualties were caused among the enemy ranks."

Several senior Lebanese government officials, including the prime minister, the speaker of parliament, and the foreign affairs minister, praised the attack, according to Al Manar.

Today's assault was likely launched in retaliation for the deaths of six Hezbollah operators, including the son of slain leader Imad Mughniyah, and a Qods Force general and six other officers and advisers in an Israeli airstrike. The thirteen Hezbollah and Qods Force commanders and members were scouting the Quneitra area in Syria on Jan. 18 when Israeli aircraft launched an attack, killing them all. [See LWJ reports, Hezbollah commanders killed in suspected Israeli airstrike, and Senior Qods Force general killed in suspected Israeli airstrike.]

Video shows Hezbollah Brigades convoy transporting American M1 tank

Posted: 28 Jan 2015 08:38 AM PST

American-made M1 Abrams shown flying the Hezbollah Brigades' flag while being transported by the group.

A video uploaded to YouTube appears to show a large Hezbollah Brigades convoy transporting weapons, troops, and armored vehicles to the front to fight the Islamic State.

Several American-made military vehicles, including an M1 Abrams tank, M113 armored personnel carriers, Humvees, and Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles (MRAP), as well as Iranian-made Safir 4x4s and technicals (armed pickup trucks) are in the convoy.

The Hezbollah Brigades is US-designated foreign terrorist organization that has been involved in killing American soldiers in Iraq.

At one point in the video, a transport truck is shown carrying an M1 Abrams tank. The Hezbollah Brigades' flag is flying over the tank and other US-made vehicles. The M1, which is the main battle tank of the US Army, has been sold to and utilized by the Iraqi Army.

The screen shot above marks the first evidence of Iranian-backed militias having M1 tanks at their disposal. It is unclear if the Hezbollah Brigades seized the M1 from an Iraqi Army unit that dissolved in the face of the Islamic State's onslaught, or if the Iraqi military gave the militia the tank. Several Iraqi M1s have been photographed after being destroyed by the Islamic State.

The Hezbollah Brigades, or Kata'ib Hezbollah, receives funding, training, logistics, guidance, and material support from the Qods Force, the external operations wing of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. The radical militia has joined the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq. In addition, other Iranian-supported Shia militias, such as Asaib al Haq, Badr Organization, and Muqtada al Sadr's Promised Day Brigades have played a prominent role on the battlefield. these militias have played key rolls in securing Amerli, Baiji, and Jurf al Sakhar, and are on the forefront of the fighting in Diyala province.

The United States designated the Hezbollah Brigades as a terrorist organization in July 2009. On the same day, the US added a Qods Force commander who supported the "Special Groups," such as the Hezbollah Brigades, to the list of specially designated global terrorists. The so-called Special Groups are responsible for the deaths of hundrends of US and allied soldiers between 2004 and 2011. [For more information, see LWJ report, US sanctions Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades and Qods Force adviser.]

The organization has also been responsible for several American deaths during the war in Iraq. The US State Department described the Hezbollah Brigades as "a radical Shia Islamist group with an anti-Western establishment and jihadist ideology that has conducted attacks against Iraqi, US, and Coalition targets in Iraq."

The group has been directly linked to the murder of two UN employees in November 2008. Additionally, the Iranian-backed extremists conducted attacks against US and Iraqi forces, using explosively-formed penetrators and improvised rocket-assisted mortars, which have been described as flying improvised explosive devices.

Despite this, the group was assisted by US airstrikes when Iraqi and Kurdish forces broke the siege of Amerli in Salahaddin province. The US military said it launched airstrikes against the Islamic State outside of the town "[a]t the request of the Government of Iraq" and "in support of an operation to deliver humanitarian assistance to address the humanitarian crisis and protect the civilians trapped in Amerli." [See LWJ report US aided Hezbollah Brigades in breaking Islamic State siege of Iraqi town]

Video of Hezbollah Brigades convoy:

'Foreigners' among 7 jihadists killed in US drone strike in Pakistan

Posted: 28 Jan 2015 09:06 AM PST

Several foreign fighters were among seven suspected jihadists who were killed in the latest US drone strike in Pakistan's Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan.

The CIA-operated, remotely piloted Predators or Reapers fired two missiles at a compound and a vehicle in the Shawal Valley, killing "seven suspected militants," Dawn reported.

"The compound was razed to ground whereas a vehicle inside the compound was blown into pieces," the Express Tribune reported.

Three of those killed are said to be "foreigners," a term used to describe foreign fighters from Arab countries or from regional groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan or the Turkistan Islamic Party. Al Qaeda and other jihadist groups have not announced the deaths of any senior leaders, commanders, or operatives.

The Shawal Valley, which is administered by Taliban commander Hafiz Gul Bahadar and spans both North and South Waziristan, is a known haven for al Qaeda and other terror groups operating in the region. A number of Taliban, Pakistani, and foreign terrorist groups gather in the Shawal Valley and then enter Afghanistan to fight US, NATO, and Afghan government forces.

The US has launched 24 drone strikes in the Shawal Valley since September 2010. Abdul Shakoor Turkistani, the former emir of the Turkistan Islamic Party, was killed in a strike in August 2012; while three al Qaeda military trainers were killed in an attack there in August 2013.

US strikes in Pakistan

Today's drone strike in North Waziristan is the third reported in Pakistan this year. The last attack, on Jan. 15, targeted a compound belonging to Sajna Mehsud, a Taliban commander in South Waziristan. Two Uzbek fighters were reported killed in the strike.

Last year the US launched 24 airstrikes inside Pakistan; 19 of those strikes took place in n North Waziristan and four more in South Waziristan. The number of operations has decreased since the program's peak in 2010, when 117 attacks were recorded by The Long War Journal. [See LWJ report, Charting the data for US airstrikes in Pakistan, 2004 - 2015.]

The US continues to target and kill al Qaeda and Taliban leaders in Pakistan's tribal areas despite previous claims by Obama administration officials that al Qaeda has been decimated and only two "core" al Qaeda leaders remain active. Al Qaeda also remains active outside of Pakistan's tribal areas in the provinces of Baluchistan, Punjab, and Sindh, where US drones do not operate.

Islamic State is forced from Kobane

Posted: 27 Jan 2015 06:35 PM PST

Flags of the People's Protection Units and the Free Syrian Army's Dawn of Freedom Brigade can be seen flying above Kobane.

The Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and elements from the Western-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) have driven the Islamic State out of the battleground city of Kobane in northern Syria.

After beginning an assault on the city in September of last year, Islamic State fighters were forced to retreat after a continued campaign of resistance by the YPG, backed by elements of the Free Syrian Army and US airstrikes. Kurdish fighters from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a US-designated terrorist organization to which the YPG is affiliated, and fighters from the Iraqi Peshmerga also assisted YPG forces in Kobane.

In a statement released by the YPG, the organization said "For 134 days, our fighters of the People's Defense Units (YPG)/Women's Defense Units (YPJ), men and women of Kurdistan, lovers of freedom from four parts of Kurdistan and other countries, came to a heavy battle, and conducted a great resistance against Daesh's [a term for the Islamic State] terrorism."

The YPG continued by thanking those who fought with them, saying, "At first we are grateful to our people in Kurdistan who relentlessly supported the resistance, especially our people in Bakur (North Kurdistan). We would like to thank the members of the Anti-Daesh International Coalition who contributed an active support with airstrikes. We thank the Burkan al Furat joint operations room and those brigades of the Free Syrian Army who fought shoulder to shoulder with our forces. We repeat our thanks to our Peshmerga brothers who were of a great support to us in this battle."

The Burkan al Furat is an alliance of YPG forces, elements of the Free Syrian Army, and elements from the Islamic Front which formed to fight the Islamic State in northern Aleppo province. The Islamic Front is a coalition of Islamist and jihadist groups that is closely allied with the Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda's official branch in Syria.

US Central Command (CENTCOM), which backed the forces fighting the Islamic State in Kobane with airstrikes, made clear that the fight in the area is still not decided.

"While the fight against ISIL [Islamic State] is far from over," CENTCOM said, "ISIL's failure in Kobani has denied them one of their strategic objectives." CENTCOM also makes clear that around 90 percent of the city is cleared of Islamic State fighters. While anti-Islamic State forces are largely in control of the city, the Islamic State still controls a good portion of the countryside outside the city.

A now deleted YouTube video uploaded by 'Amaq News,' an unofficial Islamic State propaganda outlet, proclaimed to show the Islamic State still controlling the Aleppo road into Kobane as of Jan. 25. So far, no other propaganda has been released by the Islamic State about the situation in Kobane.

Kobane central to Islamic State and Coalition's information campaigns

The Islamic State made its push to take control of Kobane in September. An Islamic State military force, which included tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, and infantry, began moving on villages (more than 350) surrounding Kobane. By the beginning of October, the villages were under Islamic State control and Kobane was surrounded from three sides; the fourth side borders Turkey, and it was sealed.

The US and allied forces began launching airstrikes in Kobane on Sept. 27, 2014. The targets of the air campaign included armored vehicles, troop concentrations, fighting positions, ammunition dumps, command, control, and communications centers, and training facilities. Despite the air campaign, the Islamic State advanced into Kobane in the beginning of October.

By mid-October, more than one third of Kobane was under Islamic State control and fighters had advanced to the city center.

FSA and Peshmerga reinforcements began arriving via Turkey by the end of October. By mid-November, the YPG and its allies launched their counteroffensive, and retook the city center. On Jan. 23, after more than two months of heavy fighting, the YPG controlled 70 percent of Kobane and forced the Islamic State to withdraw the bulk of its forces from the city.

Both the Islamic State and the US-led Coalition have invested significant resources during the battle for the Kurdish enclave. The town, while of little strategic significance, came to symbolize the Coalition's fight against the Islamic State in Syria.

The US-led Coalition has launched 606 airstrikes on the Islamic State in Kobane between Sept. 27, 2014 and Jan. 20, 2015, according to data compiled by The Long War Journal and Military Edge. That represents more than 71 percent of the total number of coalition airstrikes in Syria during that timeframe.

The Islamic State has also emphasized the fight in Kobane. In the past the jihadist group has been keen to promote its successes in the area. The Islamic State has even used John Cantlie, a captured British reporter, to counter claims that it was losing ground in October 2014. [See LWJ report, Islamic State uses British hostage in propaganda video to rebut Western, Kurdish claims.]

The Islamic State has also poured significant resources into Kobane. While no official estimate of the number of its fighters killed has been provided, it is likely in the hundreds based on press reporting. And the Islamic State has also lost some key local commanders during the fighting, including two Saudis known as Sultan al Safri al Harbi and Sheikh Othman al Nazeh.

US Central Command press releases also indicate that scores of Islamic State tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces were destroyed during the fighting.

It is unclear what the impact of the loss of Kobane will have on the Islamic State. The jihadist group has made advances in other areas of Syria and in Anbar province, Iraq during the battle near the Turkish border, indicating that despite taking casualties and the destruction of a number of its armored vehicles, the group has not spent its entire force and can remain on the offensive elsewhere.

Videos from Kobane

Video showing Kurdish forces celebrating in Kobane:

Another video showing Kurdish forces celebrating in Kobane:

Video showing the FSA group Dawn of Freedom Brigade celebrating with Kurdish forces:

Video showing the YPG flag flying over Kobane:

Islamic State appoints leaders of 'Khorasan province,' issues veiled threat to Afghan Taliban

Posted: 27 Jan 2015 02:13 PM PST

An organizational overview of the Khorasan Shura. The Islamic State has appointed Hafez Saeed Khan as the Governor of Khorasan province.

Abu Muhammad al Adnani, a spokesman for the Islamic State, announced the group's "expansion" into the lands of "Khorasan" -- modern day Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of the surrounding countries -- and declared former Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan or TTP) commander Hafez Saeed Khan as the "governor" of Khorasan province. Khan had previously served as the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan's emir for the tribal agency of Arakzai.

Adnani made his announcement in a nearly seven minute audio taped speech titled, "Say, Die in Your Rage!" which was published on Jan. 26 2015 by the Islamic State's Al Furqan media outlet. [For a translation of the speech, by Pieter Van Ostaeyen, see 'Audio Statement by IS Spokesman Abu Muhammad al-'Adnani as-Shami.']

The declaration comes only a few weeks after a conglomeration of former TTP officials formed the Khorasan Shura and pledged bayat, or allegiance, to the Islamic State. [See Long War Journal report, Pakistani Taliban splinter group again pledges allegiance to Islamic State.]

The Islamic State spokesman acknowledged Khan's pledge of allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi as Commander of the Faithful and the Caliph of Muslims, and claimed that Baghdadi had accepted the pledge and appointed Khan as the province's governor and Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim as the deputy governor. Khadim, a former Guantanamo detainee and former senior Taliban commander in southern Afghanistan, has reportedly been operating in Helmand province on behalf of the Islamic State. [See Long War Journal report, Ex-Gitmo detainee leads contingent of Islamic State fighters in Afghanistan.]

Adnani further urged the "mujahideen in Khorasan" to come forth and obey the commands of Khan and Khadim. Notably, Adnani also urged caution in his call to arms, noting that "the factions will assemble against you and the rifles and bayonets fixed against you will multiply." He encouraged the mujahideen to stand firm against "factionalism and disunity" and to meet these challenges by "unsheathing your swords and spears." Although not clearly stated, Adnani was issuing a veiled threat to the Taliban factions, both Afghan and Pakistani, that opposed the creation of the Khorasan Shura and who were opposed to the Islamic State.

The Afghan Taliban movement has been consistent in avoiding recognizing the Islamic State and its Caliph Abu Bakr al Baghdadi since the reclusive leader of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Mohammad Omar, has previously held the title of Commander of the Faithful position since 1996.

Adnani's declaration and Baghdadi's reported approval for the Islamic State to expand into Afghanistan and Pakistan could incite divisions within the various Taliban factions operating in both countries. The cohesion of many Taliban factions has been compromised over the past few years, mostly due to attrition and leadership decapitations, as well as ideological differences and personal feuds.

Islamic State assaults Iraqi border post near Jordan

Posted: 28 Jan 2015 07:54 AM PST

Islamic State fighters shown attacking the Arkaban border post near the Jordanian border.

The Islamic State has released photos showing its forces attacking Iraq's Arkaban border post near Jordan. The photos were produced by the Islamic State's Wilayat (Province) Anbar and disseminated by its supporters online.

The pictures show fighters firing on the border post with rocket propelled grenades, small arms, and with technicals (pickup trucks armed with heavy machine guns). At least seven technicals are shown in the images released by the jihadist group.

Iraqi media reports that the Islamic State attack on the outpost was repelled by Iraqi border forces backed by airstrikes. Brigadier Saad Maan, a spokesman for the Iraqi Interior Ministry, said that "The strength of the third regiment in the fourth border guards foiled an attempt by Daesh [the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State] to attack the Iraqi Arkaban Border Station near the Iraqi-Jordanian borders and confronted the attack in coordination with the Joint Operations which provided aerial support for the Iraqi troops." Maan continued by saying that three border guards were wounded in the attack, sustaining minor injuries.

Last November, the Islamic State attacked an Iraqi military outpost near the Trebil border complex with Jordan. At least six Iraqi military personnel were killed or wounded in that attack. Iraq had recaptured the Trebil crossing just days after the Islamic State overran it in June of last year. [For more information on the attack on the Trebil crossing, as well as the brief capture of it, see LWJ report, Islamic State attacks Iraqi border crossing with Jordan.]

Photos released by the Islamic State showing the attack on the Arkaban border post with Jordan can be seen below:

Analysis: Islamic State sleeper cells a threat to Turkey

Posted: 27 Jan 2015 01:33 PM PST

A leaked Turkish National Police intelligence report reveals alarm in Ankara about potential attacks by Islamic State sleeper cells across the country.

The police report, which was disclosed by Jane's Intelligence Weekly, warns of 3,000 operatives living in Turkey who are directly linked to the jihadist organization. The report also lists a number of vulnerable cities, including the country's political and cultural capitals of Ankara and Istanbul.

This threat was all too predictable. In an effort to bring down the regime of Bashar al Assad in Syria, Turkey opened its southeastern border to a wide range of Syrian rebels beginning in 2011. As the war has dragged on, the fighters came to include jihadist groups like the Islamic State, which has since conquered large swaths of Syria and Iraq, as well as the Al Nusrah Front, which is al Qaeda official branch in Syria. Today, Turkey's 565-mile border with Syria is the transit point of choice for the illegal sale of Islamic State oil, the transfer of weapons to various fighting factions, and the flow of foreign fighters to jihadist groups of all stripes.

This problem is now more than four years old. Extremists have by now had ample time to establish infrastructure in Turkey to facilitate this illicit activity. In the process, they have also established cells and other logistical bases throughout the country. The Turkish National Police now seem to acknowledge this threat.

Turkish and America media have been reporting for months about Islamic State recruitment activity in Turkey. For example, a report by the Turkish daily Hurriyet from September 2014 identified Islamic State activities in cities such as Istanbul and Kocaeli in the western portion of the country, and Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, and Diyarbakir to the east. A New York Times report also detailed how the Islamic State was recruiting militants in Ankara, located in central Turkey.

The anti-AKP and Kemalist newspaper, Aydinlik, noted that Islamic State militants were operating in other towns, such as Konya, which is known for its conservative Islamic culture. As Newsweek explained, other conservative pockets in Turkey, such as Dilovasi neighborhood in Ankara, are particularly susceptible for recruitment.

One jarring metric is the raw number of Turks who have joined the Islamic State. Just last week, Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that there are about 700 Turkish citizens fighting for the radical group. Without question, the Islamic State's ideology and recent expansion are luring many conservative Turks to fight. But financial inducements may also play a role; according to one New York Times report, the Islamic State offers $150 a day to Turkish recruits who agree to fight.

In addition, Turkey is home to many IS sympathizers. Ali Ediboglu, a Turkish opposition deputy, claims that "at least 1,000 Turkish nationals are helping ... foreign fighters sneak into Syria and Iraq to join ISIS." YouTube videos depict Islamic State gatherings in Istanbul and demonstrations of support by Turkish citizens for the jihadist fighters in Syria, including those with the Islamic State. Last fall, it was reported that some 20 people with black masks on their faces and bats in their hands attacked an Istanbul University demonstration against IS. The group, identified in the article as "Musluman Gencler" (Muslim Youth), reportedly returned to campus for more attacks.

There is also reason to fear the radicalization of Syrians living in Turkey. As a result of the civil war, Turkey is now home to more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees, and that number may be a low-ball estimate. Reports suggest that the Islamic State may be targeting young men and boys in refugee camps for recruitment.

Turkey recently had a glimpse of what the future could hold if the Islamic State launches concerted assaults on its territory. On January 6, a suicide bomber who attacked a police station in Istanbul's historic district of Sultanahmet is believed to have had ties to the Islamic State. As commentators noted, a spate of such attacks could do irreparable damage to Turkey's vital tourism sector, and sow fear into the hearts of Turks country-wide.

As the Janes report notes, the Islamic State also has much to lose by attacking Turkey. Indeed, the terror group benefits greatly from illicit oil sales to Turkey, the flow of foreign fighters, cash and weapons over the border into Syria, and a rather permissive environment in southeastern Turkey, where authorities don't seem terribly alarmed over the presence of extremists. The leaders of the Islamic State are also fully aware of the fact that Ankara has refused to play an active role in the US-led coalition that is now bombing Islamic State fighters. In fact, Turkey has refused to even allow its bases to be used for that purpose. The Islamic State would like to keep it that way.

This modus vivendi notwithstanding, the existence of Islamic State sympathizers and operatives inside the country puts Turkey at risk. The longer the conflict plays out in Syria, the higher the likelihood that Turkey gets dragged into it. If the Islamic State strikes back by activating its local assets, Ankara will only have its own policies to blame.