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ICHRI:
"The Revolutionary Court in Tehran has sentenced eight Facebook
users to a total of 123 years in prison on charges of 'propaganda against
the state' and 'insulting the Supreme Leader.' The ruling by Judge
Mohammad Moghiseh, which is harsher than what the law allows, is clearly
intended to spread fear among Internet users in Iran, and dissuade
Iranians from stepping outside strict state controls on cyberspace.
According to the Kaleme website , the eight accused had been arrested
during the late summer and late fall of 2013 by the cyber crime
intelligence unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards... In addition to
the above-mentioned charges, the individuals were also charged with
'assembly and collusion against national security,' 'blasphemy,'
'creating public anxiety,' and 'spreading falsehoods.'" http://t.uani.com/1nUd5W2
LAT:
"The United Nations is unlikely to complete its assessment of
whether Iran has conducted research on nuclear weapons before the
deadline set by six world powers for a deal to curb the country's nuclear
activities, a new complication in the international negotiations. In its
latest quarterly report released Friday, the International Atomic Energy
Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, said it would conduct a
comprehensive 'system assessment' of all evidence on the sensitive issue
of whether Iran has sought to gain nuclear weapons capability. The scope
of the study probably means that the United States and the five other
world powers won't have the U.N.'s final judgment on Iran's disputed activities
by July 20, when they hope to have completed an agreement with Iran.
Instead, the world powers - the U.S., Britain, China, France, Germany and
Russia - will have to determine whether Iran has sought nuclear weapons
capability, adding a further challenge to a negotiation that is already
difficult, said David Albright, a nuclear weapons specialist who is
president of the Institute for Science and International Security. The
exhaustive U.N. approach 'does make sense - but the problem is in the
timing,' said Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector. 'They're going
to take their sweet time; they don't understand the need to speed
up.'" http://t.uani.com/1puG5EW
WashPost:
"For the first time in decades, businesspeople from the United
States are visiting Iran in significant numbers, exploring the
possibility of future partnerships as Iranian and American entrepreneurs
begin to envision a reopening of long-closed commercial channels.
Although sanctions blocking most types of trade between the two countries
are still in place, there are no bans on travel to Iran. For U.S.
citizens granted a visa to Iran, local hosts can organize programs, which
have included recent visits to investment firms, Tehran's stock exchange,
factories, farms and high-tech start-ups... 'There will be phenomenal
opportunities for American investors. I would definitely consider
investing in Iran, and I think that's the universal answer,' said Dick
Simon, chief executive of RSI, a Boston-based real estate development and
investment management company, who co-organized a recent trip to Iran
composed of mostly U.S. entrepreneurs, as well as several that were
Canadian or British." http://t.uani.com/1kKA5qY
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Reuters: "Iran is cooperating 'too slowly' with a U.N. watchdog
investigation into suspected nuclear weapons research, France said on
Tuesday, warning that world powers will not seal any long-term deal with
Tehran until there were tangible results... Iran's discussions with the
IAEA are separate from its talks with the powers, but both are aimed at
ensuring that it does not develop nuclear weapons, an intention it
strongly denies. '(The IAEA report) shows that Iran is respecting its
commitments according to the Geneva agreement,' French Foreign ministry
spokesman Romain Nadal said, referring to last year's pact under which
Tehran curbed parts of its nuclear program in exchange for some easing of
sanctions battering its economy. 'That is indispensable for talks to
reach a long-term agreement between the six and Iran,' he said...
However, Nadal said Iran's 'cooperation with the IAEA on a possible
military dimension (to its nuclear program) is progressing too slowly
despite the agency's repeated efforts'... 'Concrete results (in the
IAEA-Iran talks) are indispensable before the possible finalization of a
long-term agreement,' Nadal said. 'More needs to be done between now and
July.'" http://t.uani.com/1hxXjfJ
Reuters: "After months of delays, Iran appears to be finalizing a
plant to convert a large amount of low-enriched uranium gas into an oxide
form that would be less suitable for processing into nuclear bomb
material, a U.N. watchdog report shows. Under last year's landmark accord
with six world powers to curb Iran's nuclear program, it needs to take
action by late July to limit its stockpile of uranium gas refined to a
fissile concentration of up to 5 percent. It was one of the terms of the
interim deal that won Tehran some sanctions easing. To be able to do that,
it has been building a facility near the central city of Isfahan for
turning the gas into powder. A new U.N. nuclear agency report said its
commissioning - final preparations originally expected last year - had
now begun. In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
said Iran had transferred 4.3 tonnes of low-grade uranium gas to the site
from its Natanz enrichment plant. It did not say when conversion into
oxide would get under way. 'I think we will hear anytime soon that it has
started up with the actual material,' one Western diplomat said." http://t.uani.com/1otmpDU
Sanctions
Relief
Trend: "China's Wan Hai shipping company announced its readiness to
restart its activities in Iran's Shahid Rajaee port. A high-ranking
delegation from the company has travelled to the port to discuss possible
ways of cooperation with Iranian officials, Iran's IRIB News Agency
reported on May 24. The company is reportedly ready to operate ships with
capacity to carry 6,000 containers." http://t.uani.com/SbEHLY
Sanctions
Enforcement & Impact
Trend: "Brazilian state oil company Petrobras has closed its office
in Tehran. Brazilian Ambassador to Tehran Santiago Irazabal Mourao said
for the time being Petrobras has no intention to return to the Iranian
market, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on May 27. 'Petrobras focused on
developing oil and gas projects in Brazil,' he added. 'However, the
company is obliged to its contract with the National Iranian Oil Company
to explore for oil in the Persian Gulf,' he noted. In 2009, Petrobras
said the exploration of an Iranian oil block in the Persian Gulf would
prove its development to be not commercially feasible. Petrobras also
said it had decided not to continue with an exploration project in the
Caspian Sea in northern Iran." http://t.uani.com/1h964Co
Human Rights
Al-Monitor: "Iranian female workers, many of whom work under dire
circumstances, are often slighted and undergo hardship alongside the
tough nature of their jobs. In an interview with Iranian Labor News Agency
(ILNA), Haleh Safar-Zadeh, an activist for female workers' rights, talked
about many of the issues facing Iranian women who work in factories. She
said, 'The minimum wage female workers accept for work is so low that it
has angered their male co-workers, who tell them these kinds of
agreements may backfire on them and result in lower wages for them - the
male workers - as well.' She added, 'In certain instances, single women
are employed in factories on the condition that they commit to remaining
single and/or refrain from reproduction.'" http://t.uani.com/1rggCUg
Guardian: "Eight people, including an Iranian-born British woman,
have been jailed in Iran on charges including blasphemy and insulting the
country's supreme leader on Facebook. The opposition website Kaleme
reported that two of the eight, identified as Roya Saberinejad Nobakht,
47, from Stockport, and Amir Golestani, each received 20 years in prison
and the remaining six - Masoud Ghasemkhani, Fariborz Kardarfar, Seyed
Masoud Seyed Talebi, Amin Akramipour, Mehdi Reyshahri and Naghmeh
Shahisavandi Shirazi - between seven and 19 years. They were variously
found guilty of blasphemy, propaganda against the ruling system,
spreading lies and insulting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Nobakht's husband, Daryoush
Taghipoor, told the Manchester Evening News in April that his wife had
been detained at the airport in Shiraz last October in connection with
comments she had made on Facebook." http://t.uani.com/1nUdxn0
Opinion &
Analysis
WSJ Editorial: "The International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran last
week issued a joint statement in which Tehran pledged to apprise the
Agency of 'the initiation of high explosives, including the conduct of
large scale high explosives experimentation in Iran.' In a word: weaponization,
the most secretive dimension of the Iranian nuclear program. Tehran's
willingness to broach the topic will be hailed by supporters of the
current talks as a sign that they're yielding results. Yet Iran has thus
far dismissed as 'fabrications' evidence of its weaponization work
compiled by the IAEA. We'll believe honest disclosures of prior
weaponization activity when we see them. More to the point, we've
obtained a plausible new report from the Mujahedeen-e Khalq, an Iranian
opposition group, suggesting that Tehran has kept active and intact its
core team of weaponization researchers. The Islamic Republic's attempts
to develop a nuclear explosive device date to the late 1980s, when the
regime established a Defense Ministry-linked physics research center in
Tehran, according to Western intelligence agencies. By the next decade,
according to the IAEA, the regime would consolidate its weaponization
researchers under an initiative called the 'AMAD Plan,' headed by Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh, a Ph.D. nuclear engineer and senior member of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps. The AMAD Plan was charged with procuring
dual-use technologies, developing nuclear detonators and conducting
high-explosive experiments associated with compressing fissile material,
according to Western intelligence agencies. The AMAD Plan's most intense
period of activity was in 2002-03, according to the IAEA, when current
President Hasan Rouhani headed Iran's Supreme National Security Council
before becoming its chief nuclear negotiator. Feeling the heat from the
MEK's disclosure of two nuclear facilities in 2002 and the 2003 U.S.
invasion of Iraq, the mullahs apparently halted the AMAD Plan's
activities in late 2003. But Mr. Fakhrizadeh and his scientists didn't
stop their weaponization work. As former United Nations weapons inspector
David Albright told us, 'Fakhrizadeh continued to run the program in the
military industry, where you could work on nuclear weapons.' Much of the
work, including theoretical explosive modeling, was shifted to Defense
Ministry-linked universities, such as Malek Ashtar University of
Technology in Tehran. Mr. Fakhrizadeh has continued to oversee these
disparate and highly compartmentalized activities, now under the auspices
of Iran's new Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by
its Persian acronym, SPND. The MEK first disclosed the SPND's existence
in 2011. Now the opposition group has obtained what it says are key new
biographical details and the first photograph of the 56-year-old Mr.
Fakhrizadeh, whom Iran has refused to make available to the IAEA for
long-sought interviews. The MEK has also compiled a list of what it says
are 100 SPND researchers. Far from disbanding the SPND, the MEK alleges,
the Tehran regime has kept its nucleus of researchers intact. Possibly to
avoid detection by the IAEA, the MEK says, the regime recently relocated
the SPND's headquarters from Mojdeh Avenue in Tehran to Pasdaran Avenue.
'The new site,' the MEK adds, 'is located in between several centers and
offices affiliated to the Defense Ministry . . . , the Union of IRGC, the
sports organization of the Defense Ministry . . . and Chamran
Hospital.'" http://t.uani.com/1otsZui
Eric Edelman, Dennis Ross & Ray Takeyh in WashPost: "Arms
control has often been a bone of contention between the White House and
Congress. Presidents and their diplomats prefer to reach agreements in
secret and then shield the accord from congressional scrutiny, much less
consent. It is all too tempting for the Obama administration to follow
this script as it negotiates with Iran. But that would be a mistake.
Notwithstanding partisan difficulties, seeking congressional endorsement
is essential lest any agreement rest on a shaky foundation and be
difficult to implement. Two of President Obama's predecessors offer a
path worthy of emulation. Harry Truman did much to anchor the
institutions of the Cold War in a durable domestic consensus. Richard
Nixon, in turn, created the modern arms-control architecture and managed
to persuade both parties on the importance of nuclear restraint. Truman
appreciated that, for the United States to awaken fully from its
isolationist torpor, he had to bring along a Republican Party skeptical
of international engagement. He cultivated influential Republican
lawmakers such as Sen. Arthur Vandenberg (Mich.) and paid close attention
to their advice and suggestions. Even a fierce partisan such as John
Foster Dulles was included in the Truman administration's inner circle on
issues such as the peace treaty with Japan and the establishment of NATO.
As a result of these efforts, key initiatives such as the creation of the
United Nations and the Marshall Plan enjoyed widespread support from
across the aisle - even though bipartisan support could not be assumed at
that time. It is worth recalling that, for the Republican Party,
membership in global organizations and offering aid to foreign countries
had once been anathema. At this point, the Obama administration's Iran
policy rests on no such national consensus. The president can do much to
alter this reality by offering detailed briefings on the Hill and even
including Republican staffers in U.S. delegations to the P5+1 talks.
Although Nixon is remembered today mostly for the opening to China and
ending the Vietnam War, he did much to temper the nuclear arms race at
the height of the Cold War. Nixon could have sought to protect his
signature achievement, SALT I, from congressional scrutiny by claiming
presidential authority. To be sure, the Arms Control and Disarmament Act
of 1961 stressed that all agreements limiting the U.S. arsenal had to be
subject to congressional affirmation. Still, SALT I was an executive
agreement, and if he wanted to, Nixon could have made a murky case for
not seeking Congress's sanction. He thought better of it and submitted
the agreement for approval. That meant negotiating with the formidable
Sen. Henry 'Scoop' Jackson (D-Wash.) and taking his concerns into
consideration. The process may have been tortuous, but the result was a
public law that enshrined the agreement in statute. One point that may
enhance the Obama administration's ability to bring Congress along would
be to offer an explanation about the consequence of cheating by Iran if
there is an agreement. Given Congress's deep distrust of Iran's leaders, any
deal is likely to be far more credible on the Hill if the administration
has a clear plan to deal with cheating. Such a plan could go beyond the
imposition of harsh sanctions and include congressional authorization for
the use of force to respond to violations of the agreement. In this way,
the administration would demonstrate resolve while also having Congress
show its support for use of force - a message that the Iranians would be
unlikely to miss." http://t.uani.com/TTyqpI
Saeed Ghasseminejad & Emanuele Ottolenghi in WSJ: "Investing in
Iran is a mistake. The new presidential leadership in Tehran has prompted
some investors to think seriously of the Islamic Republic as a promising
emerging market. 'Iran could very quickly turn into one of the hottest
investment opportunities of the next two decades,' wrote a columnist for
the Journal's Market Watch in March. The evidence is compelling at first
glance. The Tehran Stock Exchange has more than doubled its value over
the past year, rising to 76,212 points from 45,553.4 on the eve of
President Hasan Rouhani's election last June. But would-be investors face
serious structural, legal and moral hurdles. The Tehran regime is touting
Mr. Rouhani's allegedly moderate foreign policy, the prospect of a thaw
in Iran-U.S. relations and the promise of a nuclear compromise to lure
back investors. The mullahs' argument is that investing in Iran is a
sound business proposition. Soaring stocks offer ordinary Iranians the
hope of easy earnings, and the regime sees market exuberance as a vote of
confidence in its new course. Many inside the country and in the West
view the TSE's performance as a sign that Iran's economy has as much
potential for growth as that of Turkey, India or Brazil-once sanctions
are removed, that is. The courtship is beginning to pay off. A delegation
from the TSE visited London in early April to promote investment in Iran.
Since then, a number of business delegations from Europe and Asia have
traveled to Tehran to explore investment opportunities. Seminars
promoting investment are being held across the region. So what's wrong
with investing in Iran? Investing in Iranian stocks means, primarily,
casting your lot with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a
U.S.-designated terrorist entity. The IRGC presently controls 21% of
TSE's market value, all of it in sectors such as oil, petrochemicals,
telecommunications, construction, mining and metals, which would top
foreign investors' shopping lists. The IRGC fully controls 28 publicly
traded companies, including key players such as the Telecommunication
Company of Iran, Ansar Bank and Toos Gostar Urban Development. Investing
in a company controlled by a terrorist organization whose record includes
murdering Western military personnel and countless civilians isn't just
in bad taste. It can also invite serious consequences under antiterror
regulations. Western investors granted exemptions would still be
vulnerable to lawsuits by victims of terrorism and their families. And
avoiding IRGC-controlled companies is easier said than done. Alongside
the companies it directly controls, the IRGC maintains significant
minority shares in many other businesses, such as Mellat Insurance, where
the IRGC is a minority shareholder through companies like Bahman Group
and Mehr Eqtesad Group. If investors were to avoid this liability as
well, they would then find a number of publicly traded companies in which
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the controlling shareholder.
Buying a stake in companies owned by Iran's supreme leader is also asking
for trouble. For one thing, Mr. Khamenei shares responsibility with the
IRGC for ordering and financing terrorist activities. Dealing with his
companies carries the same risk of liability associated with investing in
IRGC-controlled assets." http://t.uani.com/1mEKMeL
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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