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Top Stories
Politico:
"Iran's ability to make missiles loaded with nuclear warheads now
rests primarily on the 'political will' of its leaders, rather than any
technical constraints, according to an annual U.S. intelligence
assessment presented on Capitol Hill Wednesday. 'Tehran has made
technical progress in a number of areas - including uranium enrichment,
nuclear reactors, and ballistic missiles - from which it could draw if it
decided to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons,' Director of
National Intelligence James Clapper said in written testimony submitted
as he appeared before the Senate Intelligence Committee. 'These technical
advancements strengthen our assessment that Iran has the scientific,
technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons.
This makes the central issue its political will to do so.' On that point,
the U.S. Worldwide Threat Assessment suggests a lack of consensus at high
levels of the Iranian government and notes that the interim agreement
Iran reached to halt and roll back aspects of the program appears to be
the product of uncertainty about whether the effort is worth the severe
economic price the country has paid in economic sanctions, set to be
eased somewhat under the six-month deal. 'Iran's overarching strategic
goals of enhancing its security, prestige, and regional influence have
led it to pursue capabilities to meet its civilian goals and give it the
ability to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons, if it chooses to do
so,' the assessment says." http://t.uani.com/Ml2Qgi
AFP:
"President Barack Obama appears to have prevailed, for now, in a
campaign to stop Congress from imposing new sanctions on Iran he fears
could derail nuclear diplomacy. Several Democratic senators who
previously backed a bipartisan sanctions bill publicly stepped back after
Obama threatened a veto during his State of the Union address Tuesday.
Several sources familiar with behind-the-scenes maneuvring say a number
of other Democratic senators signed up for more sanctions had privately
recoiled from a damaging vote against their own president. According to
some counts in recent weeks, the measure had 59 likely votes, including
16 Democrats, and was even approaching a two-thirds veto-proof majority
in the 100-seat Senate. But latest developments appear to have checked
that momentum." http://t.uani.com/1fjABZw
Reuters:
"India imported nearly 40 percent less Iranian crude last year, with
no sign in the last month of 2013 that the easing of Western sanctions in
a landmark deal resulted in Indian refiners bumping up their purchases...
Oil industry sources in India have said they expect no rapid increases in
the imports in coming months, while noting shipments could fall further
in the upcoming fiscal year. India's cuts last year due to the toughened
sanctions that were put in place in 2012 were deeper even than the
targeted cut of 15 percent to 220,000 bpd in average imports from Iran
for the year ending March 31, 2014. And New Delhi could take just
180,00-190,000 bpd in 2014/15 as it may have to cut imports further if
sanctions against Iran are not fully lifted later this year, an oil
ministry official said earlier in January. For 2013, India - Iran's top
oil customer after China - imported 195,600 bpd of oil and condensate,
down 38 percent compared with 315,200 bpd in 2012, according to data
obtained from trade sources. India's purchases from Iran declined nearly
14 percent last month compared with November and about 31.5 percent from
a year ago, the data also showed. India's cut in Iranian oil shipment in
2013 was in sharp contrast to a meagre 2.2 percent decline in China's
imports excluding condensate. South Korea's crude purchases from Iran
were down about 14 percent in 2013 from the previous year. China and
South Korea also decreased their Iranian oil shipments in December from
the same month a year ago by 14.5 percent and 29.5 percent, respectively.
Japan reports its crude import data for December and 2013 on Friday. It
cuts its imports from Iran over January-November by 4.6 percent, only by
reducing its November intake of the crude by more than half from the same
month in 2012." http://t.uani.com/1ezEsyh
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
AFP:
"Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited
Iran's Gachin uranium mine on Wednesday for the first time in nine years,
Iranian officials said. 'The inspectors expressed their satisfaction
after having visited different parts of the mine,' said Mohammed Amiri,
an official of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, quoted by state news agency
IRNA. He said the visit to the mine lasted five hours, while agency
spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said earlier that it was carried out by
three inspectors. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts
were to leave Iran in the evening, but no specific details were given of
the visit, which was conducted in the absence of any media. Their visit
to the mine in southern Iran -- which had been off-limits to the IAEA
since 2005 -- falls within the scope of a framework agreement which
Tehran reached with the UN nuclear watchdog in November." http://t.uani.com/1dQxRhU
AP:
"Iran's Foreign Ministry has rejected President Barack Obama's
remarks made during his State of the Union speech on the subject of
Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Obama said in his annual address on Tuesday
that 'American diplomacy, backed by pressure' led to the landmark
November deal in which Iran agreed to cap its nuclear program in return
for some sanction relief by the West. On Thursday, Iran's Foreign
Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham dismissed that statement as a
'totally wrong interpretation.'" http://t.uani.com/1bBmfzt
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters:
"A group of insurers warned shipowners this week to be careful when
signing deals to carry Iranian oil because the United States has not been
able to clarify whether insurance claims will be paid after the
suspension of sanctions ends in July... Uncertainty over post-July
insurance payments, however, has made the suspension of sanctions on ship
cover 'of very limited, if any, value to shipowners,' the group of
shipping insurers said in a note this week. The International Group of
P&I Clubs said it was uncertain if insurance claims that arose while
sanctions are eased would be honoured if they remained unpaid after July
20. The International Group has been in talks with the U.S. Office of
Foreign Assets Control but OFAC has not been able to confirm whether
payments for claims could be made after July 20 when sanctions could
possibly be reimposed, the group said. 'Members should proceed on the
basis that beyond 20 July 2014 (or any extension of the initial six-month
period), clubs will not be able to respond to any claims presented in
respect of liabilities arising during the 20 January-20 July suspension
period," the group said in its note... P&I claims can take one
or two years to settle, said a Japan P&I Club official. If claims
cannot be settled within six months it would be similar to having no
insurance, he said. He said owners of Japanese ships importing Iranian
crude oil are staying with Tokyo's sovereign insurance scheme put in
place in mid-2012 to keep the oil shipments flowing, and none have moved
to get cover from the Japan P&I Club." http://t.uani.com/1lnVacW
Reuters:
"Switzerland said on Wednesday it had suspended sanctions against
Iran on trade in precious metals and in petrochemical products until
August 14, in light of a deal with world powers under which Tehran has
scaled back its nuclear programme. In a statement, the Swiss Federal
Council (cabinet) said it was following the lead of the European Union,
which agreed on Jan. 20 to suspend some sanctions. The United States
eased some sanctions last week, pausing efforts to reduce Iranian crude
exports. The Swiss lifted a ban on precious metal trade with Iranian
public bodies and eased restrictions on trade in petrochemical products,
transport of Iranian oil or petroleum products, and the provision of
insurance for shipments, it said. Ceilings were raised tenfold for
transfers of funds to Iranians, it added." http://t.uani.com/1iPf7HT
Domestic
Politics
Reuters:
"While international sanctions have made life a struggle for many
Iranians, they were a big break for businessman Babak Zanjani, who made a
fortune helping the government evade the restrictions on oil sales. He
also made enemies. A $40,000 watch on his wrist and a Tehran football
club for a plaything, Zanjani shuttled to meetings on private jets,
arranging billions of dollars of oil deals through a network of companies
that stretched from Turkey to Malaysia, Tajikistan and the United Arab
Emirates, he said last autumn. 'This is my work - sanctions-busting
operations,' he told Iranian current affairs magazine Aseman. Under the
conservative presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the 39-year-old Zanjani
was good enough at his work to amass a fortune of $10 billion - along
with debts of a similar scale, he told Aseman - until he was arrested
late last month. He is being held in Tehran's notorious Evin prison,
accused of owing the government, under moderate new President Hassan
Rouhani since August, more than $2.7 billion for oil sold on behalf of
the oil ministry... Analysts say Zanjani's connections with senior
officials in Ahmadinejad's administration and in the Revolutionary Guards
- a powerful branch of Iran's military with extensive business interests
- have made him a political target." http://t.uani.com/1jNyQb1
Opinion &
Analysis
Zachary Keck in
TNI: "The most significant way the
U.S. has benefitted from the Syrian civil war is by seeing its regional
and global adversaries undermined by the conflict. Just as the U.S. has
been the primary external benefactor of the Syrian civil war, no third
party has been a bigger loser in Syria then Iran. The prospect of the
Alawites losing power in Damascus threatened to roll back all the gains
Iran made over the last decade, not only undermining Iran's position in
Syria, but also by extension in Lebanon. Not surprisingly, Iranian
leaders quickly sprang into action, providing significant assistance to
Assad's regime. They undoubtedly realized the danger of being seen as
propping up Assad, as evidenced by their refusal to acknowledge doing so
in the beginning. Moreover, Iranian leaders probably believed the
rebellion could be suppressed quickly given their experience following
the disputed 2009 presidential elections. With the conflict nearing its
third year, it has proven anything but short. Over the past two years, Iran
and its ally Hezbollah have been forced to devote considerable blood and
treasure into preventing Alawite rule from collapsing in Syria. Although
the Alawites' rule no longer seems to be in imminent danger, they also
appear no closer to reasserting control over the entire country. Thus,
the material costs for Iran are likely to continue to mount. From Iran's
strategic perspective, the larger cost of supporting Assad has been its
loss of Iran and Hezbollah's softer power in the greater Middle East.
Lacking the ability to project conventional military power, Iranian
influence in the region is largely based on the soft power it accrues
from its defiance and denouncements of Israel and the United States. For
decades this soft power has allowed Iranian leaders to bridge the ethnic
and sectarian divide with the Arab Sunni street. The Syrian civil war,
and Iran's support for al-Assad, has quickly eroded Iran's favorability
among this demographic. Although Iran's popularity in the Arab world
began diminishing before the Syrian conflict began, it has virtually
fallen off the cliff over the last few years. As James Zogby notes, in
2006 Iran had a 75 percent favorability rating among publics in twenty
Middle Eastern nations, with 85 percent of Saudi Arabians viewing Tehran
favorably. By 2012, Iran's favorability ratings in those same countries
declined to just 25 percent, and 15 percent in Saudi Arabia. This has had
real and immediate repercussions for Iran. For example, Iran's support
for al-Assad caused a serious rift in its relationship with Hamas.
Similarly, after considerable diplomatic pressure, Egypt and Iran resumed
tourism ties in April of last year. Egyptian Salafists responded days
later by storming Iran's chargé d'affaires in Cairo. Months later, Egypt
quietly severed tourism ties. Elsewhere, in Yemen, multiple Iranian
diplomats have been kidnapped and killed in recent months. The latest one
was evidently beheaded after being held hostage for months (at the
time of this writing, Iran is denying this account). The growing
sectarian divide in the Middle East poses a real threat to Iran. It is
for this reason that the Rouhani administration has made repairing ties
to Arab states a top priority, and why Supreme Leader Khamenei has made
Muslim unity an ever-more prevalent theme of his public addresses." http://t.uani.com/1cyKFxO
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