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Top Stories
AP: "Twenty-six
senators introduced legislation Thursday that could raise sanctions on
Iran and compel the United States to support Israel if it launches a
preemptive attack on the Iranian nuclear program, defying President Obama
and drawing a veto threat. The bill, sponsored by 13 Democrats and 13
Republicans, sets sanctions that would go into effect if Tehran violates
the nuclear deal it reached with world powers last month or lets the
agreement expire without a long-term accord. The measures include a global
boycott on Iranian oil exports within one year and the blacklisting of
Iran's mining, engineering, and construction industries. The goal,
according to supporters, is to strengthen the negotiating leverage of the
Obama administration as it seeks to pressure Iran into a comprehensive
agreement next year that would eliminate the risk of the Islamic republic
developing nuclear weapons. But it could also add complications for US
negotiators, who promised Iran no new economic sanctions for the duration
of the six-month interim pact that was finalized Nov. 24 in Geneva.
'Current sanctions brought Iran to the negotiating table and a credible
threat of future sanctions will require Iran to cooperate and act in good
faith at the negotiating table,' said Senator Bob Menendez, Democrat of
New Jersey, who spearheaded the effort with Senator Mark Kirk, Republican
of Illinois. Kirk called the draft law 'an insurance policy to defend
against Iranian deception.'" http://t.uani.com/19hdrDL
ICHRI:
"Shirin Ebadi, the 2003 Nobel Peace Laureate and human rights
lawyer, told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran in an
exclusive interview that the draft Citizenship Rights Charter published
by Hassan Rouhani in November to solicit input from analysts is redundant
and ineffectual, and 'is in fact a tool to distract those who are waiting
for justice to be carried out.' ... 'The Citizenship Rights Charter is
not an indication of a serious political will for protecting citizens'
rights, because writing an incomplete law, most of which is dedicated to
pleasantries and does not have any guarantees, does nothing but waste the
time of those whose rights have been violated, or who are in prison just
for writing an article or having a religious ideology,' Shirin Ebadi told
the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. Shirin Ebadi spoke
about the double standards of the Iranian officials in using certain
social networks while ordinary people are deprived of the same. "We
see that Facebook is blocked in Iran but the Ministers use it. We see
that a thief's hand was amputated in a small town after he stole some
money and chocolate from a bakery, while individuals who stole billions
from the treasury are walking around comfortably and with pride." http://t.uani.com/1frJOy5
AFP:
"The economic benefits of an interim nuclear agreement between Iran
and world powers are already being felt in the Islamic republic but the
relief is limited, a report said Thursday. A deal struck in November to
suspend international sanctions for six months has seen an improvement in
Iran's stock market and a drop in inflation, said the Institute of
International Finance, which represents 450 banks and global financial
institutions. In particular, the gap between the black market and
official exchange rates for the Iranian rial have narrowed, 'falling from
an average of IR 35,675 per dollar in June to IR 29,700' as of December
16, the report said. 'Real GDP could stabilize and even rise modestly in
the current fiscal year,' which ends on March 20, 2014." http://t.uani.com/1cFvMph
Sanctions
Reuters:
"Before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran was a flourishing
marketplace for U.S.-manufactured cars and trucks, but a combination of
U.S. sanctions barring most trade and Iran's own restrictions have
blocked sales. Yet since last year, hundreds of the most sought-after
American and European car models have appeared in Tabriz from a nearby
free trade zone close to Armenia and Azerbaijan, an example of how
sanctions rarely stop the flow of luxury goods... The Aras free zone
established eight years ago in the north-west of the country began
allowing car imports last year, putting it in prime position as a key
conduit for trade if the diplomatic thaw between Iran and the West
continues... Businesses contacted by Reuters say more than 1,500 have
been sold in Aras since the first half of 2012. More than half of those
are American brands - including Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac, Ford and
Dodge... Sources in Aras say some vehicles are shipped from the United
Arab Emirates to Bandar Abbas or Bandar Lengeh - ports in southern Iran -
and transported by truck more than 1,200 miles across the country to
Aras. Others are imported from Iraqi Kurdistan and Georgia, said another
Aras auto trader." http://t.uani.com/1l11CkN
Bloomberg:
"Iran probably will use European banks to handle some payments for
its crude exports once a deal with world powers relating to the nation's
nuclear program starts, said a deputy oil minister from the Persian Gulf
state. 'The arrangement is that it will be four to five banks and there
certainly will be European banks too,' Ali Majedi, deputy oil minister
for international and commercial affairs, said in an interview in Tehran
on Dec. 18. Europe, the U.S. and other nations agreed last month to ease
measures targeting Iran's oil exports in return for curbing its nuclear
program. The country probably will use banks in Europe and Asia to handle
income from crude sales and to pay countries supplying goods, Majedi
said. The EU said when the agreement was reached that some financial
restrictions could be relaxed for humanitarian purposes." http://t.uani.com/1dW55yQ
Reuters:
"South Korea's crude oil imports from Iran fell 34.4 percent in
November from a year earlier, while its total crude oil imports declined
5.5 percent year on year to 75.8 million barrels last month, data from
state-run Korea National Oil Corp (KNOC) showed on Friday." http://t.uani.com/19XAjTb
Human Rights
AP:
"Iran's state TV is saying the country's foreign ministry has
rejected a U.N. human rights resolution, calling it biased. The Thursday
report quotes spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham as saying the resolution is
'full of untrustworthy items' and presents no evidence except reports by
western sources and 'terrorist groups.' Afkham accused the West of
systematically violating human rights itself but using claims of its
infringement for political gain against other countries." http://t.uani.com/1l13Oc2
Domestic
Politics
Bloomberg:
"Iran's Revolutionary Guards, a business empire as well as the
country's most powerful military force, have been a vocal critic of
recent nuclear diplomacy. President Hassan Rouhani is fighting back,
setting up a contest that may shape his presidency... 'One of the two
will be defeated,' said Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Foundation
for Defense of Democracies in Washington and author of several studies of
the Guards. The Guards report directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, who encouraged their participation in politics to counter the
reformist movement that emerged around President Mohammad Khatami in 1997.
Khamenei typically plays different factions against one another to ensure
no group gets too powerful, said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran specialist
with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. He may
use the Guards to put the brakes on Rouhani's plans, Sadjadpour said.
'Khamenei doesn't want to be seen blocking Rouhani but he's betting Sepah
will do his dirty work for him,' he said, referring to the Persian name
for the Guard Corps. Equally, the supreme leader will sometimes back the
president because 'he wouldn't mind seeing Rouhani roll back some of the
influence of the Guards,' Alfoneh said." http://t.uani.com/1l12Zjq
FT:
"Their experiences reflect the social change bubbling underneath the
surface of Iranian society, as the adult children of a more conservative
generation rebel against the traditional and Islamic strictures their
parents conformed to and seek to emulate what they see as more western
norms. In recent years, the divorce rate in Iran has risen, the marriage
rate has fallen as has the birth rate. 'The pace of developments is so
fast and vast it is as if this nation wants to jump 50 years ahead
overnight,' says Mostafa Eghlima, head of Social Workers Scientific
Association, a non-governmental group. Academic research shows 70 per
cent of divorcees are under 27 years old, he says. 'Newly married couples
think marriage and having children deprive them of their freedom,' he
adds... Such social upheaval is a natural outcome of the tension between
a conservative regime and a changing society, says Saeed Moidfar, a
prominent sociologist. 'Iranians increasingly adopt modern lifestyles,
which are based on individualism and rationality rather than official
diktats, leading to a kind of hidden lifestyle under the skin of big
cities,' he said." http://t.uani.com/19XxXDM
Foreign Affairs
Free Beacon:
"The United Nations overwhelmingly voted on Wednesday to adopt an
Iranian and Syrian authored resolution that calls on nations across the
globe to denounce violence and extremism.The U.N.'s General Assembly
voted by consensus to approve the 'World Against Violent Extremism'
(WAVE) Act, which critics lambasted as hypocritical, given Iran's
designation as one of the global leaders in executions and
state-sponsored terrorism. Iran's WAVE Act urges member nations to take
'appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace and to achieve
international cooperation in solving international problems of an
economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian character,' according to text
of the resolution. It also encourages 'respect for human rights and for
fundamental freedoms for all without distinction of any kind such as to
race, color, sex, language, religion, political or other opinions,
national or social origin, property, birth, or other status.' Iran also
asks that member states refrain 'from the threat or use of force.'" http://t.uani.com/JKEDhX
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI President
Gary Samore in Harvard's Belfer Center: "In the near
term, the Obama administration does not yet need to engage Senators
Menendez, Kirk, and Schumer on the details of their proposed Nuclear
Weapon Free Act of 2013. The upcoming congressional recess and the
protection of friendly senators (including Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid and Chairman of the Senate Banking and Finance Committee Tim
Johnson) are likely to delay consideration of the bill for the time
being. However, congressional support for sanctions legislation against
Iran has strong bipartisan support, and pressure for additional
legislation is likely to grow if - as seems likely - it becomes apparent
in coming months that negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran on a final
agreement are not faring well. In the event that the Obama administration
is forced to enter into negotiations with Congress on new sanctions legislation,
the White House is likely to have several objections to the proposed
Senate legislation, especially on the certification requirements to waive
or suspend sanctions... The sponsors of the Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act
of 2013 argue that the threat to reimpose existing sanctions and levy
additional sanctions is necessary to pressure Iran to comply with the
Joint Plan of Action and make additional nuclear concessions required for
a final agreement. No doubt, effective enforcement of current sanctions
and the threat of additional sanctions are essential to maximize the
administration's bargaining leverage with Iran. Nonetheless, the Obama
administration opposes the introduction of new sanctions legislation
because it could harden domestic Iranian opposition to President
Rouhani's efforts to negotiate a settlement and ultimately give Iran
grounds to blame the U.S. if final negotiations fail. While it seems
unlikely that Iran would withdraw from the Joint Plan of Action in
response to legislation that threatens (but does not yet impose) new
sanctions, the Iranian Majlis is almost certain to adopt parallel
legislation that threatens to escalate nuclear activities in the event
that an acceptable final agreement is not achieved. In addition, the
administration is likely to object that some of the Senate bill's
required certifications unduly restrict the president's ability to
conduct foreign policy and dictate unrealistic conditions for a
diplomatic settlement. In the first case, some of the required certifications
are inherently subjective (such as the requirement to attest to Iran's
'good faith' in the negotiations) or unclear (such as certifications
related to undefined terms like 'illicit nuclear activities,' 'nuclear
weapons capability' and 'nuclear breakout capability')." http://t.uani.com/1bUXYqz
WashPost
Editorial: "President Obama said this month that he
assessed the chance of reaching a permanent accord with Iran on its
nuclear program as no 'more than 50-50.' For his part, Secretary of State
John F. Kerry told Congress that he 'came away from our preliminary
negotiations' with Tehran 'with serious questions about whether or not
they're ready and willing to make some of the choices that have to be
made.' Events in the past week have made clear that those bearish
judgments were justified. Iranian officials walked out of talks with the
West last Friday - not the negotiations about a final accord, which have
not begun in earnest, but those on the implementation of the preliminary
agreement reached in Geneva in November. The pretext was an announcement
by the U.S. Treasury of actions against companies that have been
violating U.S. sanctions against Iran. The announcement should not come
as a surprise: Though the United States and its partners agreed to some sanctions
relief in Geneva, they made clear that they would continue to enforce
measures constraining Iranian trade and banking. By making a show of
breaking off talks, Tehran was attempting to bluff the West into
hollowing out the remaining sanctions by stopping their enforcement. It
also delayed the time when it will have to comply with its own commitment
to cut back on its enrichment of uranium and reduce the stockpile it has
accumulated. Meanwhile, other nuclear activities not covered by the
preliminary accord continue. No doubt, Iran does not expect this work to
prompt the United States to walk out. Perhaps such maneuvering is
inevitable. But Iran is sending an early message that it does not intend
to bargain in good faith. That impression was reinforced by interviews
given recently by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, including one to
The Post's David Ignatius. Mr. Zarif claimed that Iran wanted a deal and
that 'on our side... it is very easy to reach an agreement.' But he also
came close to ruling out acceptance of steps that will be essential to
ensuring that Iran is not left with a nuclear breakout capacity. Of
particular concern are two nuclear facilities that have scant conceivable
purpose other than the production of weapons: the underground Fordow
enrichment facility and the Arak heavy-water reactor, which is under
construction and could be used to produce plutonium. In previous rounds
of negotiations, the Obama administration sought the shutdown of Fordow
and suspension of construction at Arak; though it obtained neither in the
interim agreement, a final deal must address both. Yet Mr. Zarif said of
Arak, 'We cannot roll back the clock 20 years and simply get rid of a
project that has been the subject of a great deal of human and material
investment.' Of Fordow, he said the U.S. demand revealed an intention to
facilitate a military attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, since
'Fordow cannot be hit.' But the reverse logic also applies: Iran would
not need a facility invulnerable to attack unless it wished to preserve
the option to attempt a breakout. Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry have devoted
much time since the Geneva deal to persuading Congress not to approve
additional sanctions on Iran. Perhaps their time would be better spent
pushing the Iranian negotiators to stop posturing and stonewalling."
http://t.uani.com/J1z52J
Mark Landler in
NYT: "Early next year, the Obama administration will
embark on an extraordinary diplomatic doubleheader, trying to negotiate a
comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran while seeking yet again a political
end to nearly three years of civil war in Syria. The United States has
strictly segregated the Iranian nuclear talks from the diplomatic efforts
to end the bloodshed in Syria. But the two are more closely connected than
the White House cares to admit - and not just because both sets of
negotiations are likely to be conducted on the shores of Lake Geneva.
Success or failure in each could heavily influence the other. Iran
remains a destabilizing force in Syria, and its neighbors view its
efforts to prop up President Bashar al-Assad as inextricably linked to
its expansionist designs in the Middle East, which would be furthered
significantly by having a nuclear weapon. Since Iran signed the interim
nuclear deal in Geneva last month, Israel and Saudi Arabia have argued
that any final deal needs to confront regional issues, notably Iran's
role in Syria. Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
acknowledged as much when he toured Persian Gulf states recently to
reassure them about Tehran's intentions. 'They recognize their nuclear
negotiations cannot be hermetically sealed off from regional issues,'
said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
'Ultimately, a nuclear deal has to be underpinned by a regional
consensus. You've got to get other people's buy-in.' The trouble is, Iran
has not been invited to next month's conference on Syria because it
refuses to affirm that Mr. Assad must cede power - a prerequisite of the
West. Its absence is a major impediment, given that Iran is a lifeline
for Mr. Assad, providing him with training and equipment through the
paramilitary Quds Force and with fighters from the Iranian-backed
militant group Hezbollah. Iran, experts say, is redoubling its support
for Mr. Assad in the days before the Syria conference, which will be held
in the Swiss city of Montreux, to maximize his chances of keeping power.
Iran is recruiting militias in Lebanon and Iraq to fight the rebels in
Syria. Iranian rockets have worsened an already gruesome winter for
millions of Syrians. Mr. Assad's survival is so important to Iran because
he is the main patron of Hezbollah, and Iran relies on that group's
missiles and rockets, pointed at Israel from Lebanon, to act as a
deterrent against Israeli threats to strike its nuclear facilities. 'The
result is a humanitarian abomination caused by the regime, abetted by
Iran, complicated by recent diplomatic initiatives, and worsened by the
onset of winter,' said Frederic C. Hof, who as a State Department official
worked on plans for a political transition in Syria and is now a senior
fellow at the Atlantic Council. 'I would hope we are leaning hard on
Tehran to get its client to stop the war crimes and crimes against
humanity and to oblige the regime to give unrestricted access to U.N.
humanitarian relief organizations now,' he said. Mr. Hof's words reflect
a fear shared by some that the United States will turn a blind eye to
Iran's malign activities outside the nuclear sphere to prevent its
diplomacy from going off the rails. Mr. Zarif has already threatened that
any new sanctions will kill the negotiations... Given how the Middle East
is dividing along sectarian lines, between Shiites and Sunnis, some
analysts warn that allowing Iranian-backed elements to triumph in Syria
could fatally weaken any nuclear deal. 'A deal on the Iranian nuclear
program isn't going to work if you cede the hard-liners the Levant,' said
Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near
East Policy." http://t.uani.com/1l14RJ2
Hadi Ghaemi in
HuffPo: "The recent interim nuclear agreement
between Iran and the P5+1 powers is a welcome development for most
Iranians. It is a major step in the right direction, addressing many of
their pressing concerns: it reduces international tensions, provides a
diplomatic path to avoid a military confrontation, promises to make the
country's nuclear activities transparent and subject to effective
international monitoring, and begins the process of easing the great
economic burden they have endured due to sanctions. Yet there is also
much concern inside Iran about the ongoing and widespread human rights
violations in the country. For nearly a decade, the nuclear issue has
eclipsed the struggle for human rights inside Iran on the international
stage. As Iran's foreign policy makers move towards rapprochement with
the West after 34 years of estrangement, Iranians are worried that their
basic rights, instead of being elevated to the importance it deserves,
will be sacrificed in these negotiations. They fear that repression in
Iran could even intensify if the regime concludes that once a nuclear
deal with the international community is reached, there will be little
international pressure to improve the country's human rights record.
Progress towards a nuclear deal should by no means lessen international
attention to the human rights violations that have reached crisis levels
in Iran since the disputed 2009 election and which continue to this day
despite the election of Hassan Rouhani. The Obama administration deserves
credit for its diligent pursuit of the diplomatic track. But its policy
makers must understand that they can pursue dialogue with the Iranian
government on both the nuclear issue and the human rights front. Ignoring
the latter, even if in the hopes of facilitating the former, would be a
major mistake. Indeed, encouraging domestic political and social reform
in Iran is essential for a successful and lasting nuclear deal and is
unquestionably in the long-term strategic interests of Iran's negotiating
partners. Without pressure from the negotiating powers to improve
the human rights situation, the Iranian government is likely to continue
its current record, which has not resulted in tangible reforms. The
hardliners in Iran may have lost the presidential election, but they
continue to hold many major levers of power and so far they have ensured
that the country's human rights record worsens rather than improves under
Rouhani's presidency. Rouhani came to power with an overwhelming mandate
by the Iranian electorate not just to change the country's foreign policy
track, but also to significantly reduce the social and political
repression gripping the country. So far he has achieved little on this
front. If Rouhani does not demonstrate leadership on the domestic front,
his hardline opponents will capitalize on this weakness and may well
challenge him on his foreign policy initiatives too, significantly
endangering a final agreement on the nuclear file. Rouhani's failure to
end the current repression will disappoint the millions who voted for him
and reduce his popular support, further empowering the hardliners to
stymie his foreign policies. This is exactly what happened to the
reformist president Khatami, who achieved neither lasting domestic reforms
nor foreign policy success. Now is the time, with both sides fully and
substantively engaged, for the West to press Iran to respect its
international human rights obligations. No foreign power, including the
US, can directly bring about lasting democratic changes to Iran. Such a
development must be homegrown and there is a large constituency inside
the country struggling peacefully for it, as the election of Rouhani has
demonstrated. But the international community, in particular the US and
the EU, can play an important role by publicly and privately
communicating to the Iranian government that progress on the human rights
is as much of an imperative for normalized relations with the West as the
nuclear issue." http://t.uani.com/1ch1Chb
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an
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