Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Eye on Iran: Repression Intensifies Despite Rouhani's Promises







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ICHRI:
"The Iranian Judiciary should immediately halt its new wave of repression of the media and civil society and stop its numerous rushed executions, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said today. In the past three days alone, the Judiciary has banned the reformist daily Bahar, sentenced the prominent actress Pegah Ahangarani to 18 months in prison, and put to death 18 individuals who are ethnic minorities. 'President Rouhani has an immense responsibility to uphold his promises to protect citizenship rights and use all means at his disposal to stop this latest onslaught against civil and human rights,' said Hadi Ghaemi, the Campaign's executive director... 'President Rouhani has a mandate in the votes of millions of Iranians who propelled him to office to pursue the changes he promised. Now is the time for President Rouhani to show his willingness and determination to defend the rights of the people by condemning such gross human rights violations. His silence is a tacit approval of these violations,' Ghaemi said." http://t.uani.com/19Pjw74

FT: "Iran plans to persuade international companies to invest in its oilfields by offering them more lucrative contracts as part of efforts to repair its battered economy and improve the Islamic Republic's relations with the western world... In a rare interview, Mehdi Hosseini, an adviser to the oil minister, said the current system of 'buyback' contracts - which do not allow foreign companies to book reserves or take equity stakes in Iranian projects - would be scrapped. Mr Hosseini said the government was developing a 'win-win' form of contract so leading companies 'whether American or European' could benefit. Details are expected to be revealed in London next March, he said, as part of an effort to attract at least $100bn in investment over the next three years. The overhaul would mark a big step for a regime that has traditionally been hostile to any form of foreign ownership of its vast oil and gas wealth... 'Iran has a long history of aggressive resource nationalism, and I doubt that will change,' said Robin West, senior adviser to IHS Energy, a consultancy. 'They have always had very aggressive fiscal terms and always tried to shift the investment risk to operators while keeping the lion's share of revenue.' But he said the country's mature reserves required heavy investment from western majors and, to coax them in, Tehran would have to offer 'extremely attractive terms.' 'If they do, it'll be a real break with the past,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1covkS9

Reuters: "The U.N. nuclear watchdog and Iran held productive talks this week on how to advance a long-blocked inquiry into Iranian atomic activities and agreed to meet again in Tehran on Nov. 11, the two sides said in a rare joint statement on Tuesday... The IAEA and Iran 'had a very productive meeting on past and present issues,' Tero Varjoranta, the agency's deputy director general in charge of nuclear inspections, told reporters at the end of the two-day meeting in Vienna." http://t.uani.com/1aQJYL1
Election Repression ToolkitNuclear Program

Reuters: "Iran's new proposal to U.N. inspectors is practical and meant to 'solve the issue', an Iranian envoy said before a second day of talks on Tuesday, a hint Tehran may cooperate more with an inquiry into suspected nuclear arms research in the country. A series of meetings since early 2012 have yielded no deal that would give the International Atomic Energy Agency access to sites, files and officials relevant to its investigation... Reza Najafi, Iran's new ambassador to the IAEA, made the comment late on Monday to an Iranian news agency after he and other Iranian officials met with senior IAEA experts at the agency's Vienna headquarters... Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in Vienna on Monday that he had put forward proposals to IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano and pledged a 'new approach' in dealings with the U.N. agency. But he gave no details. 'Our proposal is practical and intended to solve the issue between Iran and the agency,' Najafi told the ISNA news agency, adding that Iranian and IAEA experts had 'entered into substantive discussions in these negotiations.'" http://t.uani.com/19PiHeu

Bloomberg: "U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that failing to pursue diplomacy on Iran's disputed nuclear program would be irresponsible and urged Congress to become more involved in efforts to halt the spread of nuclear weapons... 'Iran is so crucial in the health of the whole nonproliferation regime and policy, it's kind of the centerpiece,' said Robert Einhorn, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington policy group... 'Iran is so crucial in the health of the whole nonproliferation regime and policy, it's kind of the centerpiece,' said Robert Einhorn, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington policy group... Abandoning the diplomatic process now under way with Iran 'would be the height of irresponsibility,' Kerry said last night. Even so, he said, 'no deal is better than a bad deal.'" http://t.uani.com/1dIa0qt

Free Beacon: "Iran has passed the 'point of no return' in its nuclear weapons program and could soon have the ability to enrich enough missile-grade uranium to build a bomb in just two weeks, the former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency told reporters on Monday. Olli Heinonen, who served at the IAEA for 27 years until 2010, said the advanced centrifuges that Iran recently began installing in its enrichment facilities will 'radically reduce the so-called breakout time' for the regime to quickly produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear weapon. Iran announced in January it would install 3,000 IR-2 centrifuges in its Natanz facility. These produce a four to five times greater output than the older model, according to the Institute for Science and International Security. A recent ISIS report estimated Iran could achieve breakout in one month, based on its current capabilities. This highlights the advancements Iran has made in its program since last year, when ISIS estimated it could produce the necessary amount of weapons-grade uranium in two to four months. Heinonen said this window could shrink further. 'I believe that if certain arrangements are done, [the breakout time] can even go down to two weeks,' said Heinonen. If Iran continues to install new centrifuges at its current rate, Heinonen said the time estimates would be shortened significantly by next summer." http://t.uani.com/1dIjG4c

Times of Israel: "Iran will not suspend its uranium enrichment nor will it stop the custom of chanting 'death to America' in public gatherings, a senior Iranian politician said. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chairman of the foreign policy and national security committee in the Iranian parliament, told members of the engineers' association that uranium enrichment is a "red line" in nuclear negotiations, adding that the suspension of enrichment in the past by Iran's reformist government will never repeat itself. 'The gloom that surrounded the nuclear facilities at the time is over,' Boroujerdi was quoted by Iran's Arabic-language news channel Al-Alam as saying Saturday. 'Today Iran can take new decisions.' ... In his speech, the Iranian official also referred to reports that the traditional chant 'death to America' will no longer be used, saying the opposite was true; and the slogan will be used even more than before." http://t.uani.com/1g9jTyl

Sanctions

Bloomberg: "Deutsche Boerse AG said the fine its Clearstream unit faces from U.S. government allegations that it violated sanctions against Iran may be half the previously disclosed amount. The penalty totals $169 million, or only $152 million if the Frankfurt-based company settles with the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, Deutsche Boerse said in a statement yesterday. In January, Deutsche Boerse said it might have to pay $340 million. The Treasury investigation, which Deutsche Boerse said has concluded, centered on securities transfers within the Clearstream system in 2008, following the company's decision in 2007 to close Iranian customers' accounts. The company started talks on a deal with the U.S. Treasury in 2008, the Frankfurt-based exchange said earlier this year." http://t.uani.com/1cgDVCc

Reuters: "India's crude imports from Iran fell 40 percent in the first nine months of this year as some refiners cut purchases from the sanctions-hit nation while waiting for New Delhi to back local insurers covering plants processing the oil. European reinsurers, due to Western measures targeting Iran's disputed nuclear programme, have added a clause in contracts with Indian refiners that could mean claims arising during the processing of Iranian oil would not be met. New Delhi has decided to set up a sovereign fund to back local insurers covering such refineries, hoping to boost imports paid for in rupees to ease its current account deficit. But the fund has yet to start and this could lead to import cuts larger than the goal of about 15 percent. Despite a near doubling of Iran oil shipments from August as one refiner stepped up purchases, the year-to-date volumes are still down sharply from a year ago. India's imports of Iranian oil have fallen to 194,000 barrels per day (bpd) for January-September, down from 324,000 bpd in the same period last year, trade data made available to Reuters shows. September barrels from Iran rose to 296,100 bpd from 151,000 bpd in August, partly due to Indian Oil Corp taking 2 million barrels of oil from Tehran, the data showed... Refiner Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd was the biggest importer of Iranian oil in September, replacing Essar Oil by shipping in 133,000 bpd, the data showed." http://t.uani.com/1dI4vYI

Syria Conflict

The National: "Iran provides military support to President Bashar Al Assad by way of regular clandestine flights between Tehran and Damascus, according to a Syrian official with knowledge of air traffic between the two capitals. Up to three supply flights occur each week between the two cities, none of them appearing on public timetables, said the official, who has access to certain details of air traffic in and out of Damascus International Airport. The flights typically take place at night, with no weekly schedule set in advance. 'There are private flights every week, sometimes three a week, and they are controlled by an Iranian officer in Damascus,' the Syrian official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information. 'Everyone must follow this [Iranian] man's orders. We have been told he is the second most important man in Syria and that we are to do as he says without question,' said the official, who continues to support the Assad regime and work for the Syrian government in Damascus. The identity of the Iranian officer is not publicly known. 'We have not been told openly, but we know the flights are being organised by the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guard,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1f1woZz

Human Rights

AFP: "The International Federation for Human Rights on Tuesday condemned Iran's execution of 16 convicts to avenge a deadly border attack, saying nothing has changed under the country's moderate new president. 'The retaliatory execution of 16 Baluchi prisoners on Saturday, in revenge for the deplorable killing of 14 border guards, is in total breach of international law,' the FIDH said. 'The latest executions are even more shocking as these Baluchi prisoners were not even connected to the insurgents' attack,' said Karim Lahidji, the FIDH president. 'This further vindicates our assertion that the situation of human rights has not changed in Iran since the taking of office of Hassan Rouhani' as the Islamic republic's president in August, he added." http://t.uani.com/1gXSwsc

Amnesty: "Two death row prisoners from Iran's Kurdish minority are at imminent risk of being executed after the Iranian authorities carried out 20 death sentences over the weekend, Amnesty International warned today.  'This surge in executions shows that behind words and promises, the Iranian authorities continue to rely on state-sponsored killing, sparking fears that Zaniar Moradi and Loghman Moradi, two Kurdish minority prisoners on death row, could be next,' said Hassiba Hadj Sahraoui, Middle East and North Africa Deputy Director at Amnesty International... Among those executed over the weekend was Habibollah Golparipour, another Kurdish minority political prisoner for whom Amnesty International has campaigned. On the morning of 25 October, he was transferred from solitary confinement in Oroumieh Prison, West Azerbaijan Province, north-west of Iran, to an unknown location and executed the same evening. His family was not notified beforehand After his execution, the Iranian authorities have reportedly refused to hand over his body to his family adding to their distress. Habibollah Golparipour was sentenced to death in a five-minute trial in March 2010." http://t.uani.com/17qcF6v

AFP: "An Iranian court has sentenced filmmaker and actress Pegah Ahangarani to 18 months in prison, her mother told ISNA news agency Monday, apparently for her social activities, political comments and interviews with foreign media. 'She has been sentenced to 18 months in the trial court,' Manijeh Hekmat, who is also a director, told ISNA without giving further details. Ahangarani, 29, was arrested in her flat in July 2011 and was released on bail later that month. Currently, she is not in detention, as an appeals court must confirm the sentence before it is applied under the Iranian system... Hekmat said that her daughter has been prevented from leaving Iran for nearly three years." http://t.uani.com/17VB1PP

RFE/RL: Iran's reformist 'Bahar' daily has become the first publication to be banned since President Hassan Rohani came to office in August. The closure was imposed by Iran's state press watchdog over publication of an article that critics say undermined Islamic principles. The controversial article was an opinion piece that questioned the Shi'ite belief that the Prophet Muhammad had appointed his son-in-law, Imam Ali, as his successor. Culture Minister Ali Jannati claimed the article distorted the history of Islam and created religious divisions... The move against 'Bahar' is, for some, a discouraging sign and a reminder of threats against press freedom in the Islamic republic, which has been branded by rights groups as one of the biggest jailers of journalists in the Middle East." http://t.uani.com/1abO4fT

Foreign Affairs

AFP: "Japan's foreign minister said Tuesday he would visit Iran next month, in the latest sign of Tehran's rapidly thawing relationship with the Western world. Fumio Kishida said he plans a three-day trip from November 9, the day after Iranian negotiators wrap up talks with world powers in Geneva over the country's nuclear programme. Tokyo, which is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, has maintained friendly relations with Tehran through its years of ostracism, keeping up a diplomatic two-way that many developed countries cut off decades ago." http://t.uani.com/1f1vpc3
Opinion & Analysis

Dennis Ross, Eric Edelman & Michael Makovsky in LAT: "This month in Geneva, at the first negotiations over its nuclear program since the election of President Hassan Rouhani, Iran took an unprecedented step: It negotiated. For the first time, Tehran presented an actual vision of the endgame for the talks with six world powers, and how to get there. However, contrary to expectations, it offered no concessions, leaving serious questions about Iranian purposes. With another round of talks scheduled for next week, U.S. negotiators would do well to follow principles that signify the core interests at stake. The most pressing national security threat facing the United States remains preventing a nuclear-capable Iran. The preferred way to achieve that objective is through a diplomatic agreement. But diplomacy can only be that - a means to an end. As Secretary of State John F. Kerry has said, a 'bad deal is worse than no deal.' A deal struck for its own sake would still allow for a nuclear Iran; undermine the legitimacy of any subsequent U.S. attempts or, much more likely, Israeli attempts to arrest Iran's progress by military action; discredit and compromise U.S. credibility; and weaken, if not destroy, the decades-old international nonproliferation regime. Therefore, the United States should only pursue an agreement within certain parameters, to ensure the deal actually furthers the interests of the U.S. and its allies. As we explain in a new JINSA Gemunder Center report, there are six such principles that should guide the negotiations with Iran. First, Iran must resolve outstanding international concerns. The International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly complained that Iran has not been forthcoming about its nuclear activities. Indeed, the IAEA in 2011 expressed its 'deep and increasing concern about the unresolved issues regarding the Iranian nuclear program, including those which need to be clarified to exclude the existence of possible military dimensions.' Iran must quickly address all outstanding IAEA concerns as part of any deal... Third, deny Iran nuclear weapons capability. The main concern about Iran's nuclear program is that it is on the verge of producing enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear device. An acceptable deal must not just freeze but tangibly roll back its ability to do so. This will require limits on size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile, number and type of operating and installed centrifuges, design of enrichment facilities and possible plutonium production at the Arak heavy-water reactor. Fourth, impose a strict inspections regime. Just because Iran agrees to a deal does not mean it will stick to it. It has tried to build each of its current enrichment facilities covertly. To prevent it from attempting to do so again, negotiators should require Iran to agree to more rigorous monitoring of its nuclear program. Fifth, negotiate from a position of strength. Too often, Iran has used negotiations to extract concessions, undermine international resolve and play for time. In the few instances it has compromised, it has been because of the threat of force. The success of these talks will hinge on Iran understanding that there will be very real and damaging consequences if negotiations fail. This will require at least these U.S. actions: Intensify sanctions and incentivize other countries to do the same, issue more forceful and credible statements that all options are on the table, initiate new military deployments and make clear the support for Israeli military action if conducted." http://t.uani.com/1amtGP4

Michael Weiss in FP: "It's hardly a secret that the Iranian regime views the current grinding war in Syria as more of a domestic than a foreign-policy concern. Its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force has been training and financing a host of Shiite and Alawite sectarian militias in Syria to fight a war that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's conventional military and traditional paramilitary proxies have been unable to win on their own. Without the direct military intervention of Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Qusayr and Homs this year, those territories would still be under rebel control. Not for nothing has Mehdi Taeb, a confidant of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, famously described Syria as Iran's '35th province,' the loss of which would spell the fall of the Islamic Republic. But now documentary evidence has come to light showing that Iran -- which had previously been helping the regime in Damascus sell and ship its own sanctioned oil to international buyers -- is shipping light crude into Syria under terms that practically amount to pro bono petroleum imports. Simply put, the Iranian regime is giving its natural resources away at a time when its own people are starving thanks to debilitating international sanctions on its nuclear program. A packet of documents Foreign Policy obtained last week indicates that Iran has been 'selling' shipments totaling around 4 million barrels of light crude oil over the last year to Syria at a 10 percent discount, at least since May of this year, when global oil prices were around $98 per barrel. The discounted cost borne by the Assad regime -- about $88 per barrel, not including transport fees -- appears to be paid out of a long-term $3.6 billion line of credit for energy imports that Tehran issued Damascus a few months ago to help it counteract the economic impacts of a devastating nearly three-year civil war. In reality, however, Assad may never be able to repay this loan -- not that the Iranians likely even expect him to, given that they view his survival as inextricable from their own. This means that not only are the Iranians selling Assad oil at a bargain, but they're floating him the money to buy it at that reduced rate... A letter dated May 12, 2013, signed by S. Moradinasab, managing director of Sahand Naft Iran Ltd., a trading services company affiliated with Iran's oil ministry, and addressed to Mohammad Alrobeh, the president of Sytrol, Syria's state-owned oil firm (which has been sanctioned by the United States and the European Union), confirms the 10 percent discount as having been certified by the 'latest resolution in the Special Economic Plan Committee.' This blandly named committee, says David Patrikarakos, author of Nuclear Iran: The Birth of an Atomic State, is one of many set up by the Islamic Republic 'for managing certain aspects of the economy and, in some cases, allocating funds to particular projects.' Patrikarakos notes that this one is clearly linked to the crisis in Syria. Additionally, the packet of documents includes a contract, dated May 31, 2013, certifying the sale of over a million barrels of Iranian light crude to Syria, which was delivered to the port of Banias "during April 2013" via the Camellia, an oil tanker owned by a company with a registered address at offices belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Co. (NITC) in Tehran, the largest tanker company in the Middle East and a subsidiary of the now-privatized National Iranian Oil Co. The contract stipulates that the purchase would either be transacted directly between the Central Bank of Iran and the Central Bank of Syria or 'by the credit line which has been allocated by Iranian government to Syria.' ... 'I can't see Assad repaying this loan anytime soon,' Patrikarakos told me. 'He may not even be around in another year or two to do so.' But a freebie oil deal to the Syrian regime may have dire populist consequences back in Iran. There's growing perception among the Iranian people that its clerical government is squandering crucial funds on foreign adventurism rather than on domestic exigencies. Parvaneh Vahidmanesh, an Iranian human rights activist based in Washington, thinks the mullahs' behavior is disgraceful. In an email to me, she wrote: 'The Iranian government has money to support the Assad regime, to provide it with almost free oil, but it has no money to support its own population at a time when people in the capital city can't afford to buy meat and when schools in poor districts are burning down because of cheap, faulty heating systems. Why is the money of Iranian children being used for guns and bombs in Syria?' Patrikarakos believes such opinions are widespread in Iran. 'The Iranians are suffering badly from sanctions and they're wasting money -- money they don't have -- giving it to Hezbollah and Assad,' he says. 'Floating Syria's energy sector is politically stupid, too, because the greater threat to the mullahs is their own population more than the fall of Assad.'" http://t.uani.com/1abMXNo

David Michel in The Iran Primer: "Iran faces growing environmental challenges that are now more perilous to the country's long-term stability than either foreign adversaries or domestic political struggles. More than two-thirds of the country's land-up to 118 million hectares-is rapidly turning into desert, Iran's Foreign Range and Watershed Management Organization reported in mid-2013. 'The main problem that threatens us [and is] more dangerous than Israel, America or political fighting... is that the Iranian plateau is becoming uninhabitable,' presidential adviser Issa Kalantari warned in the newspaper Ghanoon. 'If this situation is not reformed, in 30 years Iran will be a ghost town.' He described an alarming future of desiccated lakes and depleted groundwater, potentially driving millions of Iranians from their homes. Iran now ranks 114 of 132 countries evaluated on 22 environmental indicators, including water resources, air pollution, biodiversity and climate change, according to the 2012 Environmental Performance Index compiled by Yale and Columbia Universities... The damage - from water stress, desertification and pollution--could impose debilitating burdens long-term. The annual cost of Iran's environmental degradation already amounts to a whopping 5 percent to 10 percent of GDP, according to the World Bank.  In contrast, tough U.S. and international sanctions shrunk Iran's GDP by some 1.4 percent in 2012, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. Over time, valuable resources will be further depleted, productivity diminished, and public health damaged. Mismanagement has contributed to Iran's environmental problems.  Its cities lose one-third of their water supplies in leaky pipes. Irrigation is also highly inefficient; more than half of Iran's renewable water used in agriculture is lost. Surmounting Iran's environmental challenges will require serious reorientation of policies and resources. The cost of new technologies, conservation practices and other measures to meet projected water needs in 2050 could top $3 billion a year, experts say. Iran has recently taken important steps in the right direction. Subsidy reforms initiated in 2010 will gradually require consumers to absorb the actual costs of water supplies, enhancing the incentives to be efficient. Revenues saved from cutting back energy subsidies are intended to support initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. But the subsidy reforms stalled after phase one. They were also not designed or intended to deal with environmental challenges.  Iran's looming environmental crisis will require a comprehensive green revolution in national policy-making." http://t.uani.com/1dlEXOh

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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