Friday, October 25, 2013

Eye on Iran: Report: Iran May be Month from a Bomb







For continuing coverage follow us on Twitter and join our Facebook group.
  
Top Stories

USA TODAY:
"Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear bomb in as little as a month, according to a new estimate by one of the USA's top nuclear experts... 'Shortening breakout times have implications for any negotiation with Iran,' stated the report by the Institute for Science and International Security. 'An essential finding is that they are currently too short and shortening further.' David Albright, president of the institute and a former inspector for the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency, said the estimate means that Iran would have to eliminate more than half of its 19,000 centrifuges to extend the time it would take to build a bomb to six months... In the report, Albright said negotiations with Iran should focus on so-called 'breakout' times, or the time required to convert low-enriched uranium to weapons-grade. Albright, who has testified before Congress, said the negotiators should try to find ways to lengthen the breakout times and shorten the time that inspectors could detect breakout. ISIS' analysis is based on the latest Iranian and United Nations reports on Iran's centrifuge equipment for producing nuclear fuel and its nuclear fuel stockpiles. Iran's stockpile of highly-enriched uranium has nearly doubled in a year's time and its number of centrifuges has expanded from 12,000 in 2012 to 19,000 today." http://t.uani.com/1ePCmN0

Reuters: "Iran's oil sales in October will fall to their lowest in months, according to sources who track tanker loadings, indicating no early petrodollar dividend for Iran despite its apparent willingness to compromise on its disputed nuclear work. The OPEC-member is reaching out to its mostly Asian oil buyers to start clawing back the million barrels in market share lost to rivals such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia since the U.S. and EU slapped it last year with the toughest sanctions in decades. But the buyers have been lukewarm to Iranian offers of discounted oil. The Asian market is well supplied, with shipments rising from Russia, West Africa and Latin America as import demand in the West slows, and with other Middle Eastern producers lowering prices to retain customers. Keeping Iran oil imports at reduced levels will also make it easier for China, India, Japan and South Korea - Tehran's top clients - to win the sanction waivers the United States grants every six months for progressively lower oil buys from Iran. It is not clear how Washington would react if Iran oil shipments began creeping up, and the importers are unlikely to take chances, especially since U.S. officials have said easing of the sanctions would take time despite the thaw in relations. 'Unless there are clear signals (on the easing of tensions), I don't think there will be big change in imports,' said a Chinese industry source familiar with the situation. 'As long as the U.S. waiver is still there, no one can make a big move.' ... The Middle Eastern nation's crude exports, excluding condensate, are expected to fall nearly 30 percent from a year earlier to 719,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October, according to the sources who track its tanker loading plans. September loadings were estimated to have come in at 966,800 bpd, according to the sources... That means a plunge in the exports to near the 636,000 bpd level touched in April, the smallest daily average in decades... The sharp fall in October will be led by China, Iran's top oil customer, which is expected to lift just 188,400 bpd, less than half the average imports between January and September." http://t.uani.com/16xOKRH

Reuters: "The United States is not looking to ease sanctions on Iran 'at the front end' of negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program, a senior White House official said on Thursday. The Islamic republic would have to take 'concrete steps' to address its program before Washington could provide sanctions relief, Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser to President Barack Obama, said at the Reuters Washington Summit... In an hour-long interview, Rhodes said one way to offer Iran sanctions relief would be to give it access to frozen funds. But he said that was simply one possibility among many and that he did not wish to suggest a preferred course had been identified... 'We are not contemplating anything that removes those sanctions at the front end of any negotiation or agreement, because it's going to be important to test Iranian intentions,' Rhodes said. 'Before we could pursue sanctions relief, we'd have to see concrete steps by the Iranians to get at the state of their nuclear program,' he added at the summit, held at the Reuters office in Washington. Rhodes made clear the Obama administration wanted some flexibility from the U.S. Congress to explore such a deal, saying the White House would like lawmakers to consider the progress of negotiations as they contemplate any new sanctions." http://t.uani.com/16zVQ2Z
Election Repression ToolkitNuclear Program

AP: "A top nuclear negotiator from Tehran will meet with the head of the U.N.'s nuclear agency next week just hours before agency experts sit down with Iranian counterparts to renew their push for access to sites, people and documents believed linked to possible work on atomic arms, the agency said Thursday. The talks between International Atomic Energy Agency specialists and Iranian negotiators have been set for nearly a month. But Iran's decision to send Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was only announced Thursday... The IAEA, in an email to The Associated Press, said Araghchi will meet with agency chief Yukiya Amano on Monday afternoon for about an hour. Two hours later, agency officials seeking to restart their probe of suspicions that Tehran worked on the bomb will meet with Iranian officials, the IAEA said... The Vienna talks have been deadlocked for nearly two years, with agency experts seeking an open-ended probe and Iran insisting that it be carefully scripted." http://t.uani.com/HjwMaP

JPost: "Iran is facing one of its most difficult periods since its war with Iraq in the 1980s, making the current period conducive for reaching a potential deal, former Mossad chief Meir Dagan said on Thursday. Addressing the Iran at a Cross Roads conference at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, Dagan said that economic troubles caused by sanctions, growing ethnic tensions within Iran (such as discord among Azeris and Baluchis), and conflict with the Sunni world have all contributed to Iran's difficulties. 'This is the most comfortable time to gain achievements in talks with Iranians,' Dagan said, citing high levels of hostility developing against the regime inside and outside of Iran. He stressed, however, that the Islamic Republic 'hasn't changed its policies because of Rouhani's election. The president does not set the policies in Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/H6yPxX

Sanctions

Reuters: "The White House hosted a meeting of aides to Senate committee leaders on Thursday seeking to persuade lawmakers to hold off on a package of tough new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, a senior Senate aide said. The White House will press for another delay on a sanctions bill that had been expected to come to a vote in the Senate Banking Committee last month but was held back after appeals from President Barack Obama's administration to let negotiations on Iran's nuclear program get under way. The aide said Republicans would resist further delay, but that the decision was in the hands of Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, the committee's chairman, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, also a Democrat... While Congress has sought harsher sanctions on Iran, the administration wants more time to give negotiations over Iran's nuclear program a chance. The negotiations that include six world powers are due to resume November 7-8 in Geneva... 'Tehran must know that Congress will not acquiesce to lifting sanctions until they completely and verifiably dismantle their nuclear program,' said Daniel Harsha, a spokesman for the House committee's Democrats." http://t.uani.com/17NU5j1

Reuters: "European governments have taken preliminary steps to re-impose sanctions against Iran's main cargo shipping line, potentially complicating a new diplomatic push to settle the dispute over Tehran's nuclear program. Diplomats told Reuters the governments had agreed this week to send letters to Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and some of its subsidiaries to inform them of their intention. The decision, not yet final, is part of a broader EU effort to counter a number of court rulings annulling European sanctions such as these ones in recent months. 'We will give notice to the companies that if they have information that would affect the decision, they should submit it. It is a notice,' one EU source said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The source said the EU would use any response from the targeted companies to decide how to formulate new sanctions, which would freeze the company's assets in Europe... A new round of talks is scheduled for November 7-8 in Geneva, and the EU in its letter to IRISL is asking for feedback before November 5. The EU has in the past appealed against cases of sanctions that have been quashed, for example after the General Court overturned sanctions on Bank Mellat and Bank Saderat, among the biggest private lenders in Iran, earlier this year. But diplomats say a growing body of litigation makes it difficult to find legal bases for appeals, complicating Europe's effort to exert economic pressure on Iran. 'There is no chance for the appeals to win,' one EU diplomat told Reuters." http://t.uani.com/1ap2FsC

Human Rights

Reuters: "Iranian women guards struck the two daughters of reformist opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi and bit one of them after they visited their father under house arrest, one of the daughters said on Facebook late on Thursday. Mousavi, in his 70s and in poor health, has been held under house arrest since early 2011 when he called for marches in solidarity with 'Arab Spring' pro-democracy protests. The election of relative moderate Hassan Rouhani as Iran's president in August and his expressed wish to see all political prisoners released has led to hopes that Mousavi, a former prime minister, and other reformists may soon be freed... One of the guards attempted to search the women as they left, Nargess Mousavi said. 'We were then met with a bizarre and filthy demand by this prison guard,' she wrote on Facebook. 'We couldn't believe it at first, but she unabashedly repeated her demand, even saying she wanted us to take off our underwear.' 'To try and describe her treatment of us defies basic human decency. After refusing to take off our underclothes, she attacked us and smacked both my sister Zahra and myself in the ear with a great deal of force. As I was trying to grab her hand to keep her from attacking us any further, she stopped acting like a human being and bit my entire wrist like a wild animal,' she wrote, attaching a picture of a wrist with what appeared to be teeth marks." http://t.uani.com/1aiaYoc

Fox News: "Four Iranian Christians were reportedly sentenced to 80 lashes for drinking wine for communion, a shocking punishment meted out even as a new United Nations report blasted the Islamic republic for its systematic persecution of non-Muslims. The four men were sentenced Oct. 6 after being arrested in a house church last December and charged with consuming alcohol in violation of the theocracy's strict laws, according to Christian Solidarity Worldwide. They were among several Christians punished for their faith in a nation where converting from Islam to Christianity can bring the death penalty. According to a new October UN report by Ahmed Shaheed, UN special rapporteur on human rights in Iran, such persecution is common, despite new President Hasan Rouhani's pledge to be a moderate. 'At least 20 Christians were in custody in July 2013,' Shaheed wrote. 'In addition, violations of the rights of Christians, particularly those belonging to evangelical Protestant groups, many of whom are converts, who proselytize to and serve Iranian Christians of Muslim background, continue to be reported.'" http://t.uani.com/1ePBGqX

AFP: "Iran on Thursday angrily rejected as 'unfair' and politically-motivated a UN report which said the Islamic republic's human rights record showed no sign of improvement. The report 'describes the human rights situation in Iran in a completely unfair light and with political motivations,' foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said in a statement carried by the state broadcaster. Iran will not allow 'such prejudiced reports to become the judging standard of its human rights situation,' she said. In a report on Wednesday, special human rights monitor for Iran Ahmed Shaheed condemned the high number of executions in the country this year as well as tough restrictions on freedom of speech, especially online. 'The human rights situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to warrant serious concern, with no sign of improvement in the areas previously raised by the general assembly or the various human rights monitoring mechanisms,' Shaheed said in the report. Tehran has so far refused to let Shaheed visit the country since being appointed in 2011, and has responded to only a handful of official requests for information." http://t.uani.com/1a4RKQx

Bloomberg: "Ali Aalaei, an editor at Iran's Etemaad daily, recalls how he tried to publish a story about a dissident arrested in 2009 only to have it pulled from the paper by editors who didn't want to alienate the censors. Last month, 'we put him on our cover.' The article featured several photographs of the anguished face of Mohsen Safaei Farahani, a reformist politician and head of Iran's Football Federation, at his trial in 2010. Farahani was sentenced to six years in prison for challenging the results of the previous year's presidential election, won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad amid charges of fraud and nationwide protests that led to a government crackdown. 'We got a good reaction' to the piece, Aalaei said. 'Press restrictions have lessened.' ... How far the liberalization will go isn't clear. Authorities have curtailed media freedoms in the past after allowing them to flourish for a period. After Mohammad Khatami's election in 1997, dozens of new publications were launched, challenging the status quo and demanding wider freedoms. Within a few years the gains were lost as a conservative-dominated parliament passed laws making it easier to prosecute journalists. By the time Khatami left office in 2005 more than 150 newspapers had been forced to close, according to Reporters Without Borders. The opening under Rouhani, who took office in August, hasn't gone as far as that era, when 'the press challenged the red lines of power, areas that the leadership wasn't comfortable with,' said Aliasghar Ramezanpoor, a former deputy culture minister under Khatami, who now lives in the U.K. Current debates are mostly limited to topics permitted by authorities, including the relationship with the U.S., he said." http://t.uani.com/1hfrASm

IHR: "Four Sunni Muslim prisoners belonging to the Kurdish ethnic minority in Iran are at imminent danger of execution. According to the reliable sources there is increasing concern that these prisoners, who are being held at the Ghezel Hesar Prison (near Tehran), might be executed in the coming days." http://t.uani.com/1aJwEIh

Foreign Affairs

Reuters: "Saudi Arabia's warning that it will downgrade its relationship with the United States is based on a fear that President Barack Obama lacks both the mettle and the guile to confront mutual adversaries, and is instead handing them a strategic advantage... Behind its concerns was a fear that its closest major ally had failed to respond robustly on Syria and would give away too much in any negotiations it undertakes with Iran, Riyadh's main Middle East foe. 'The Saudis are putting the pressure on so that the Americans stop being so weak,' said a Saudi analyst close to official thinking... For Riyadh, the prospect of a U.S. deal with Tehran raises several unappetizing scenarios, including continued Iranian domination over big Arab neighbors such as Syria and Iraq, and an Israel-Iran war with Gulf Arab states caught in the middle." http://t.uani.com/17iAxJl
Opinion & Analysis

Patrick Migliorini, David Albright, Houston Wood & Christina Walrond in ISIS: "Since October 2012 when ISIS last published detailed breakout assessments about Iran's gas centrifuge uranium enrichment program, Iran has steadily expanded the number of IR-1 centrifuges installed at both its Fordow and Natanz gas centrifuge plants. Additionally, it has started installing its more advanced centrifuge model, the IR-2m centrifuge, at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP). These substantial changes merit updating our previous breakout estimates of the time Iran would need to produce one significant quantity (SQ) of weapon-grade uranium (WGU), taken as 25 kilograms of WGU, using its existing safeguarded nuclear facilities and low enriched uranium (LEU) stocks as of August 2013... As in the October 2012 iteration, the estimates in this report do not include the additional time that Iran would need to convert WGU into weapons components and manufacture a nuclear weapon. This extra time could be substantial, particularly if Iran wanted to build a reliable warhead for a ballistic missile. However, these preparations would most likely be conducted at secret sites and would be difficult to detect. If Iran successfully produced enough WGU for a nuclear weapon, the ensuing weaponization process might not be detectable until Iran tested its nuclear device underground or otherwise revealed its acquisition of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the most practical strategy to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is to prevent it from accumulating sufficient nuclear explosive material, particularly in secret or without adequate warning. This strategy depends on knowing how quickly Iran could make WGU. We evaluated a range of breakout scenarios based on the current enriching IR-1 centrifuges and LEU stockpiles, total installed IR-1 centrifuges, and a possible covert facility containing IR-2m centrifuges. This analysis utilizes a modified form of the well-known four-step enrichment process that was developed under A.Q. Khan for Pakistan's centrifuge program and transferred to other countries, such as Iran. Using all four steps, Iran would enrich natural uranium to 3.5 percent in step one, then to 20 percent in step two, then to 60 percent in step three, and finally to WGU in step four. This analysis considers the four-step, three-step, and two-step process also with the use of existing LEU stockpiles. The table lists the major estimated breakout times of the four scenarios considered in this report. Today, Iran could break out most quickly using a three-step process with its installed centrifuges and its LEU stockpiles as of August 2013. In this case, Iran could produce one SQ in as little as approximately 1.0-1.6 months, if it uses all its near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride stockpile. Using only 3.5 percent LEU, Iran would need at least 1.9 to 2.2 months and could make approximately 4 SQs of WGU using all its existing 3.5 percent LEU stockpile." http://t.uani.com/1ePEeFF

Jacob Zenn in the Combating Terrorism Center: "Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran has promoted 'Khomeinism' as one of its foreign policy tools in the Muslim world. Despite Nigeria's geographic and cultural distance from Iran, there is no region outside of the Middle East where Iran's ideology has a greater impact than in northern Nigeria. Nigeria's pro-Iranian Shi`a Muslim community was virtually non-existent 30 years ago but now comprises about five percent of Nigeria's 80 million Muslims. In recent years, Iran's Quds Force and Lebanese Hizb Allah have coordinated intelligence gathering on U.S. and Israeli targets in Nigeria and engaged in weapons and drug trafficking in West Africa with operatives drawn from Nigeria's Shi`a community. The Iranian government also maintains ties with an influential religious group called the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN). The rhetoric and actions of the IMN's leading imams and former members add fuel to the hot mix of Islamic fundamentalist movements that emerged in northern Nigeria after the 1970s. This article analyzes the activities of the IMN, the Quds Force, and Hizb Allah in Nigeria and West Africa. It finds that the Zaria, Kaduna-based IMN's charismatic leadership and northern Nigeria's attraction to revivalist Islam enables Iran to spread 'Khomeinism' in Nigeria, including its antagonism towards the United States and the West. Kaduna, which is the political center of northern Nigeria, has experienced increased Muslim-Christian violence, unemployment, and anti-Western sentiment since Nigeria restored democracy in 1999 and 12 northern states adopted modified versions of Shari`a (Islamic law). The IMN exploits this extremist-prone environment to extend its message to Shi`a and Sunnis, including members who joined movements such as Boko Haram." http://t.uani.com/1c3Eu29

Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center: "On October 10, the Asr-e Iran website published extensive excerpts from an interview granted by Iranian President Hassan Rowhani a few years ago to the author of the book Young Politicians. The book, which included conversations with several Iranian politicians, was published in 2007 by Ettelaat, in a limited edition. The interview with Rowhani that appeared in the book took place in 2004 or 2005, when he served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and head of Iran's nuclear talks team. In the interview, Rowhani provided biographical information about his childhood, private life, studies at school, religious seminary and university, and about his political activity before and after the Islamic revolution. In the interview, Rowhani also spoke at length about the nuclear talks that he was in charge of under the Khatami administration and defended the conciliatory policy adopted by Iran in 2003. He also expressed his well-known views in recent years on the nuclear talks." http://t.uani.com/1acdNef

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

No comments:

Post a Comment