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Top Stories
AP: "Iran's
parliament speaker warned Sunday that lawmakers could call for stepped-up
atomic work if the West presses too hard for concessions in ongoing
nuclear negotiations. The message from Ali Larijani - less than a week
after talks resumed - appears aimed at both envoys from the West and
Iran's negotiation team, which is led by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad
Zarif. It also highlights the political jockeying inside Iran between
backers of moderate-leaning President Hassan Rouhani and hard-liners wary
of his outreach to Washington... Larijani, meanwhile, told Iran's
representatives that parliament would not permit world powers to impose
'special measures' on the country beyond the obligations laid out by the
U.N. treaty overseeing nuclear activity, such as U.N. monitoring and
inspection... On Sunday, Rouhani told a Cabinet meeting to be careful
about foreign enemies' plans for damaging unity in the country, the
official IRNA news agency reported. Rouhani said Israel is trying to
undermine the ongoing nuclear negotiations. 'Zionists were resorting to
sabotage and trouble-making inside or outside the country whenever Iran
was achieving a success,' Rouhani was quoted as saying." http://t.uani.com/18BmfRT
LAT:
"The six world powers negotiating with Iran over its disputed
nuclear program asked Tehran in an opening proposal earlier this week to
slow, rather than halt, low-level uranium enrichment at its two
enrichment facilities, a hard-line website in Iran reported. The Mashregh
website said the six countries proposed in a meeting in Geneva on Tuesday
and Wednesday that Iran also slow the installation of gas centrifuges,
the machines that produce enriched uranium, at the Natanz and Fordo
nuclear facilities... The Farsi-language website said the six countries
proposed that Iran convert its stockpile of medium-enriched nuclear
material - which can be easily turned into nuclear bomb fuel - into
low-enriched material, which is used in civil reactors and is seen as
less threatening. It said the diplomatic group asked that Iran limit its
stockpile of low-enriched material to 10,000 kilograms, or about 22,000
pounds. The remainder of the stockpile should be turned into fuel rods, a
form that can't be used as bomb fuel, the group reportedly proposed. It
also asked that Iran sign an international protocol that would allow
United Nations nuclear inspectors to more closely monitor the expanding
nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1a6zWZg
Reuters:
"Iran believes it can wrap up negotiations with world powers over
its disputed nuclear program in one year or less, Iranian media quoted
its chief nuclear negotiator as saying. At talks last week, the first
since moderate President Hassan Rouhani's election in June, Tehran
offered a three-phase plan it said could yield a breakthrough in the
stand-off after years of diplomatic paralysis and increasing
confrontation. 'If we see the same seriousness in future negotiations
which we saw in the (October 15-16) Geneva negotiations, we believe that
within six months to one year we can conclude the negotiations,' Deputy
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in an interview with the state-owned,
Arabic-language Al Alam television channel. 'Perhaps within three months
or six months we can reach a conclusion regarding the first step,' he
said, in remarks that were published on Monday by ISNA news agency."
http://t.uani.com/H6jWw0
 Nuclear
Program
WSJ: "The revival of nuclear talks
between Iran and world powers has carved a new divide among Tehran's
hard-line leaders over whether to bend to Western demands in exchange for
relief from the sanctions that have crippled their economy. As Iran's new
president and his foreign minister have shown a willingness to end their
country's nuclear stalemate and improve relations with the West,
high-ranking conservatives have both praised and condemned these
initiatives. On one side is the familiar rhetoric aired by the senior
cleric leading the Friday prayer service in Tehran, who said the West was
using nuclear negotiations to wage war against Islam. On the other, a
cleric close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly questioned
at prayers in Isfahan whether it was wise to continue chanting 'Death to
America' at public gatherings if Iran was going to normalize relations
with the U.S." http://t.uani.com/19moqYP
Haaretz: "Iran's
proposal at the Geneva summit meeting last week, though general and open
to question, indicated Tehran's willingness to scale back its uranium
enrichment program and discuss issues it had previously rejected out of
hand, according to a high-ranking Israel official who was briefed on the
talks. United States Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, who led the
U.S. delegation to the talks, called National Security Adviser Yaakov
Amidror on Thursday and briefed him on the substance of the talks. In
addition, members of the British delegation came straight to Israel from
Geneva for talks with their Israeli colleagues. The U.K. delegation met
with Strategic and Intelligence Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz and other
top Israel officials on Friday. Prior to that, senior French and German
officials spoke by phone with their Israeli counterparts about the
talks... The Iranian proposal, as conveyed to Israel by the world powers
was formulated as a two-phase plan, consisting of confidence-building
measures by both sides, followed by negotiations toward a comprehensive
agreement ending the nuclear crisis. The Iranian representatives
explicitly said Tehran was willing to cease uranium enrichment to 20
percent and to exchange its stores of 20-percent-enriched uranium for
nuclear fuel for its experimental reactor in the capital, Tehran. Iran
expressed willingness to discuss the quantity and scope of its enrichment
of uranium to 5 percent and the number of centrifuges running in its
enrichment facilities. According to the Israeli source, the Iranians said
they were open to discussing the future of the heavy-water reactor in
Arak and the underground enrichment site in Fordo. 'The Iranians said
they can't scrub the entire program but implied that a compromise was
possible,' the source said, adding, 'they're not willing to completely
shut down these sites but they are willing to greatly restrict and limit
them.' According to the source, the Iranian representatives did not rule
out Tehran's ratification of the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty, allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency
to make unannounced inspections of suspicious nuclear facilities in Iran.
'The Iranians told the international delegations in Geneva, Don't expect
us to shut down our entire nuclear program, but we are willing to discuss
measures that will reassure you.'" http://t.uani.com/1fPtCcL
AFP:
"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday world
pressure on Iran must be maintained, as an Israeli delegation travelled
to Washington to be briefed on talks on Iran's nuclear programme...
Netanyahu's remarks came as a senior Israeli delegation was on its way to
Washington for updates on talks between the major powers and Iran over
its nuclear programme which resumed in Geneva on Tuesday. Strategic
Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz and a team of officials from intelligence
services and the foreign and defence ministries were to participate in
the bi-annual strategic dialogue, a statement from his office said."
http://t.uani.com/16m03fN
Times of Israel:
"Speaking at a cabinet meeting, Rouhani said Iran must be careful
about foreign enemies' plans for damaging unity in the country, the
official IRNA news agency reported. Rouhani added Israel was trying to
undermine the ongoing nuclear negotiations. 'The Zionists have resorted
to sabotage and creating incidents at home and abroad,' he said, adding
that the history of the Islamic Revolution showed that this ostensibly
happened every time the Islamic Republic was close to a breakthrough in
the international arena. Rouhani praised his government's diplomatic
efforts, saying his administration actively took the initiative in the
global arena and 'won the battle in the court of public opinion in the
countries that have imposed sanctions on Iran,' according to Tehran
Times. He added that his administration has already achieved diplomatic
success by stopping additional sanctions on Tehran and by engaging
constructively with world powers... The Iranian president concluded by
saying that the 'the dignified path of the Iranian nation is clear, and
the goals that have been set out by the Supreme Leader of the Revolution
for the development of the country will be vigilantly pursued.'" http://t.uani.com/1a6K0BL
Sanctions
FT: "As
Iranian and western negotiators hunkered down for talks on Tehran's
nuclear programme in Geneva last week, oil traders and analysts went into
their own war rooms - estimating the speed and quantity of oil the
country can bring back to the market should sanctions be lifted. A rapid
return of Iranian barrels could push Brent below $100 a barrel and force
Opec countries to confront the US shale revolution, which has been kept
at bay by production shortfalls in Iran and elsewhere in the cartel. Two
post-sanction scenarios are dominating discussions: the Iraqi model,
where production has only recently recovered to 1990 levels, a decade
after the end of the Iraq war, and the Libyan model, where production
returned to 1.4m b/d within months of the end of the country's civil war
in 2011. The key variable is the way production was shut in. In an
orderly shutdown, wells are plugged and equipment left in place, with
minimal geological damage to the fields. The other extreme is Iraq where
fields were abandoned in the face of military invasions and suffered
physical damage. Most analysts think Iran falls into the first category.
No bombs have fallen on the country, and the sanctions programme was well
telegraphed, giving the government plenty of time to adjust down
production as it lost markets." http://t.uani.com/1a7z0DZ
VOA:
"U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew says talk of a possible easing of
U.S. sanctions against Iran is premature, despite last week's discussions
in Geneva on the country's disputed nuclear program. The White House has
described the recent talks between Western diplomats and Iran as
displaying a new level of 'seriousness and substance.' But, appearing on
NBC's Meet the Press program, Secretary Lew gave no indication the Obama
administration is contemplating a pullback on sanctions, at least not
yet. 'It is premature to talk about the easing. I think the sanctions are
working, and that is why the discussions have started. We need to see
that they [Iranian officials] are taking the steps to move away from
having nuclear weapons capacity,' said Lew. 'We need to see real,
tangible evidence of it. And we will not make moves on the sanctions
until we see those kinds of moves [from Iran].'" http://t.uani.com/15WCpUE
USA TODAY:
"Republican senators say they will defy President Obama and push for
a bill to toughen sanctions against Iran despite White House objections
that any new legislation should wait until after the current round of
talks run their course... Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois, a junior member of
the Senate banking committee that is considering the bill, said the end
of talks in Geneva this week with no change in Iranian behavior means the
Senate should move forward on toughening sanctions despite White House
objections. Kirk released a statement together with Sens. Lindsey Graham
of South Carolina and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire responding to a
report in Friday's New York Times that the Obama administration is
considering easing sanctions on Iran by releasing Iran's frozen overseas
cash. 'Now is a time to strengthen--not weaken--U.S. and international
sanctions,' the senators said. 'The U.S. should not suspend new
sanctions, nor consider releasing limited frozen assets, before Tehran
suspends its nuclear enrichment activities.' The White House did not deny
the Times report, but Bernadette Meehan, a spokeswoman for President
Obama's National Security Council, said 'Discussion of specific types of
sanctions relief is premature and speculative.' Meehan said new sanctions
should wait while talks show promise and that Congress should match its
actions to the White House negotiating strategy. 'We believe it will be
helpful to allow the ongoing diplomatic negotiations to move forward
before we consider any new sanctions legislation,' Meehan said... The
proposed legislation is likely to be discussed in the Senate banking
committee after the Senate reconvenes from its recess Oct. 28." http://t.uani.com/16m5F9X
AP:
"Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois, a key proponent of Iran sanctions,
plans to introduce an amendment to a new package of international
restrictions on commerce with Iran that would seek to provide the
administration with more sticks and carrots for talks through Iran's cash
reserves, a Senate aide said. Kirk's plan would freeze any remaining
assets overseas that Iran can still access by threatening to cut off from
the U.S. market any foreign banks that continue doing business with Iran.
At the same time, it would also give Obama the flexibility to allow Iran
to access some of the money it can only use for limited purposes today,
said the Senate aide, who wasn't authorized to speak publicly on the
pending legislation and demanded anonymity. There's a catch, however.
Kirk's legislation would allow Iran to get the money only if it agrees to
end all uranium enrichment and reprocessing, activities that even
Rouhani's new reformist government has vowed to continue." http://t.uani.com/19mpOKY
Reuters:
"China's daily crude oil imports from Iran were the third-highest so
far this year at 475,521 barrels per day in September, up 24 percent from
the same month last year, official customs data showed on Monday. The
figure was 9 percent higher than August's 436,300 bpd level and kept the
daily average for Iranian crude imports so far this year above an
unofficial target for 2013. China and other Asian importers of Iranian
crude have to keep reducing the shipments to win waivers to U.S.
sanctions aimed at curbing the country's disputed nuclear programme...
China, Iran's largest oil client, bought 16.01 million tonnes Iranian
crude oil in the first three quarters of the year, or an average of
428,160 bpd, up 1.4 percent versus the same period a year ago. That is
above an unofficial maximum target of 416,400 bpd for 2013. Chinese oil
officials estimated late last year that domestic refiners would cut their
Iran shipments 5-10 percent this year from the 438,450 bpd average for
2012. China's average daily Iran oil imports for 2013 need to fall into a
394,600-416,400 bpd range to meet that target... Iranian supplies made up
7.6 percent of China's total September crude oil imports, which hit a new
high of 6.25 million bpd." http://t.uani.com/1a1XEYw
Human Rights
Guardian:
"Hopes have been raised for the life of the Iranian man who survived
a hanging only to be condemned to be re-executed, after one of the
country's oldest and most respected Islamic scholars appeared to question
the ruling. The extraordinary case of Alireza M, a 37-year-old father of
two who was convicted of drug smuggling three years ago, has caused
controversy around the world and divided Iranians... Among the arguments
was a fatwa, or ruling, from the religious writings of grand ayatollah
Lotfollah Safi Golpaygani, a sharia law expert, which stated that
execution was viable even after a convict had come back to life. But now
the 94-year-old ayatollah has posted an oblique reference to the case on
his website, suggesting that, as it concerns a case of drug smuggling,
not among crimes seen as an act against God, his earlier fatwa need not
apply... There are also concerns that Iran is botching hundreds of
executions, leaving people to die slow, agonising deaths, because the sheer
volume of killings being carried out means they are not being done
'professionally'. According to Amnesty International, at least 508 people
may have been executed in Iran this year." http://t.uani.com/1c8FTIT
Domestic
Politics
NYT:
"As Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, steers the country away
from its confrontational posture toward the West, he is inevitably
calling into question the bedrock anti-American ideology of the Islamic
republic. That is turning the revolution's leading slogan, 'Death to
America,' into a political battleground. 'These three words are the blood
of our ideology,' said one of those leaving Friday Prayer, Mohammad
Jahanbi. He said he had been a political prisoner during the reign of
Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and was a veteran of the bloody eight-year war
with Iraq. 'We must hold on to Death to America; otherwise, our
revolution will be lost.' But the current government has been calling for
reasoned actions rather than slogans. 'We can stand against powers with
prudence rather than with slogans,' Mr. Rouhani said recently... And so
they marched, a couple of hundred people in this capital of 12 million.
American flags were burned, children waved portraits of President Obama
with Dracula-like fangs, and security officers holding walkie-talkies
tried to look inconspicuous. While many, if not most, Iranians in the
capital scoff at the 'Death to America' crowd, anti-Americanism remains
an important part of the Islamic republic's ideology and
legitimacy." http://t.uani.com/172X5eA
RFE/RL:
"Heard the one about the ayatollah who wanted to marry war widows?
It's the type of joke that doesn't get many laughs in Iran, even if told
by the grandest ayatollah of them all -- Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder
of the Islamic republic. The 1980-88 war with Iraq remains a painful
memory for Iranians, and the tens of thousands of soldiers lost their
lives in the conflict are honored as martyrs. So when a one-liner
attributed to the late Khomeini appeared on his granddaughter's Facebook
page, controversy ensued. Khomeini's granddaughter, Naeimeh Eshraghi,
denies posting the joke, which recently appeared on the comments section
of her Facebook page, under her ID. 'Another joke we used to tell the
Imam, and he always jokingly recalled, is this: Imam Khomeini: Hey
Pasdaran [Revolutionary Guards Corps members], marry the widows of the
martyrs ... I wish I were a Pasdar.' Amid the outcry, Eshraghi has closed
her account on the social-networking site." http://t.uani.com/1fJ350H
AP:
"Iran's media says President Hassan Rouhani has named three
candidates for ministerial posts to replace nominees who were rejected by
the conservative-dominated parliament. Shortly after Rouhani was
inaugurated in August, lawmakers attacked his proposed Cabinet for its
members' Western educations, their alleged ties to the opposition, and
their supposed lack of experience. But in the end Parliament rejected
only three out of his 18 nominees. State TV said Sunday that the
president named Reza Faraji Dana to be Science, Research and Technology
Minister, Reza Salehi Amiri to fill the Sports and Youth portfolio and
Ali Asghar Fani to head the Education Ministry. The parliament will
discuss the nominations next week." http://t.uani.com/1gxi6UM
Foreign Affairs
AP:
"An accord reached with world powers over Iran's controversial
nuclear programme could help Tehran foster better ties with Europe,
visiting members of the European Parliament said here Sunday. 'It is of
great importance for the European Union to reach an agreement with Iran,'
said Hannes Swoboda, head of a three-member MEP delegation from the
socialist and democrat faction visiting Tehran. Accompanied by Ana Gomes
and Veronique de Keyser, he made the remarks in a meeting with Iranian
parliament speaker Ali Larijani, the ISNA news agency reported." http://t.uani.com/1fPjG3a
Opinion
& Analysis
Michael Singh in WashPost:
"With the first round of nuclear talks with Iran's new, and newly
pragmatic, negotiating team in the books, the Washington policy debate
about Iran has shifted from whether a deal is possible to what sort of
deal is acceptable. While such discussions can often seem a miasma of
centrifuge counts and enrichment levels, there are, in fact, two distinct
paths to a nuclear deal with Iran. The first path is one in which Tehran
would receive relief from sanctions in exchange for putting strict limits
on its nuclear activities, such as restricting uranium enrichment to low
levels. The success of such an agreement would depend on ensuring that
Iran could not use declared nuclear activities as a cover for covert
activities aimed at developing a nuclear weapon. It would also depend on
ensuring that the deal was not easily reversible, so Tehran could not
renege once pressure had been alleviated. There are ways that sanctions relief
could be made more easily reversible - for example, channeling oil
payments to Tehran through a single mechanism that could be blocked in
the event of noncompliance - but none of these is fail-safe. The efficacy
and durability of a deal over limited enrichment would rest on Iranian
transparency. To be meaningful, transparency measures would have to
include allowing inspectors unfettered access to sites of their choosing,
not just those declared by Iranian officials, and a comprehensive
accounting of Iran's past and present nuclear work, including the
military elements of its nuclear program, such as weaponization research.
Coming clean in this manner is a prerequisite for the success of any deal
that leaves in place dual-use nuclear capabilities. Countries that have
divulged their nuclear secrets, such as South Africa, have proceeded to
cooperate peacefully with the international community on atomic energy.
Those that continued to obfuscate despite agreements, such as North
Korea, experienced deeper isolation and external tensions. Iran appears
to prefer the latter model. While its officials profess a desire for
cooperation, they continue to dismiss as 'unfounded allegations' evidence
deemed 'credible' by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran has
engaged in nuclear work related to weapons. Iran continues to deny
inspectors access to suspected nuclear sites and key personnel, and it
seeks to constrict their activities within the bounds of its declared
nuclear program. Even in the best circumstances, it would take time to
establish confidence that Iran had truly given up its nuclear weapons
aspirations. Allies such as Israel and the Gulf states would distrust
Iranian intentions, while Iranians would bristle at the intrusiveness of
inspections. Absent a strategic shift by Iran, a deal on limited
enrichment is more likely to increase those tensions than to defuse them:
Iran would seek to hide or deny activities for which the United States
and its allies have convincing evidence; Iran's adversaries would seek to
match its nuclear capabilities; and erstwhile allies such as Russia and
China would drift away from the unlikely coalition currently led by
Washington. The unlikelihood of a change of heart by Iranian leaders
suggests a second, more straightforward path to an agreement: requiring
Iran to dismantle its nuclear program in exchange for any relief from
sanctions, which would be increased should Tehran refuse to yield. In
this model, Iran would have to suspend enrichment- and
reprocessing-related activities as demanded by the U.N. Security Council,
dismantle its underground enrichment facility at Fordow and export its
stockpiles of enriched uranium, among other steps. The obvious objection
to such a deal is that it may be too difficult to achieve; even U.S.
negotiators have characterized this stance as 'maximalist.' But any deal
must be evaluated in comparison to plausible alternatives, not in
isolation, and Iran's alternatives are bleak. Iran's economy is under
severe strain because of the sanctions. If Iran tried to 'break out' for
a nuclear weapon, the United States and Israel have made clear that they
would strike a devastating military blow. And contrary to conventional
wisdom, time is not on Iran's side. With each passing day, Iran's
economic predicament deepens and its nuclear program expands. But while
the former threatens Iran's well-being, the latter does not improve it.
Adding to its centrifuge inventory and uranium stockpile merely edges
Iran closer to Western 'red lines' while making it no less vulnerable to
attack. The United States possesses powerful leverage in the nuclear
talks: Its negotiating position is eminently reasonable. The West is
offering Iran something it desperately needs - sanctions relief - in
exchange for something it has little ostensible use for - enrichment and
reprocessing - given its disavowal of nuclear weapons. That's hardly a
maximalist position." http://t.uani.com/19mAw4e
Katerina Dalacoura
in FT: "Iran's positive attitude in its negotiations
with the US, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia over its nuclear
programme marks a clear shift in policy. This welcome development, seen
during the past week in talks in Geneva, follows Tehran's willingness to
go along with the Russian-initiated deal on chemical weapons in Syria -
where Iran is backing the Assad regime. The Islamic Republic appears to
be softening its longstanding policies in favour of a more conciliatory
approach. The shift is caused by the country's long-term decline in the
Middle East - and Tehran's recognition that it must act on this decline.
Iran's stance will hold the key to a number of interlocking regional
conflicts, so identifying its cause helps shape policy responses to it.
If an agreement with Iran does come to pass, many will argue that economic
sanctions, imposed by the UN Security Council, the EU and the US, have
achieved their objective. President Hassan Rouhani was elected this year
with a mandate to ease the economic plight of his people. Ali Khamenei,
the supreme leader, has at least partly conceded that the country needs
to achieve this by proffering an olive branch to the international
community, and the US in particular. But the economic factor is only part
of a bigger picture. Iran is slowly but perceptibly losing the struggle
for power in the Middle East. The messages it has propagated in various
forms since the 1979 revolution are sounding tired and losing popularity
at home and abroad. Its attempts to lead anti-western and anti-Israeli
resistance fail to excite as they used to. The Sunni-Shia conflict, which
now seems to permeate the politics of the region, has reduced Shia Iran
to the status of a sectarian power. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the
leader of the revolution whose vision was of Iran at the forefront of the
entire Islamic world, would be turning in his grave... But Iran's failing
fortunes in the region should not be gauged only in material terms. Its
bid for regional leadership has never rested solely on such crude
measures. At its core was a self-appointed role as Islamic champion of
the anti-western camp, forged in the 1979 revolution. It is on this most
crucial ideological front that Iran is losing out. The Arab uprisings of
2011 revealed this most poignantly to anyone in Tehran who cared to look.
When the revolts broke out, the Iranian leadership hoped that they
signified a popular turn to Islamism as they understood it. However, it
soon became clear that the rebellious youth were neither driven by an
anti-western animus nor by a desire for an Islamist system. In Egypt and
Tunisia, Islamist movements capitalised on the fall of presidents Hosni
Mubarak and Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. However, even in these countries
(especially Egypt), their popularity declined rapidly. As the impact of
the Arab uprisings reverberated through the Middle East, the Islamic
Republic continued to lose out. The Assad regime's brutal tactics have
delegitimised it in the eyes of many in the region, even those who had
sympathised with its longstanding anti-western, anti-Israeli stand.
Hizbollah's support of the Assad regime has similarly dented its
legitimacy. Gone are the days when Hassan Nasrallah, its
secretary-general, was the hero of the Arab street - Sunni and Shia - for
his position at the forefront of the struggle against Israel. If anyone has
taken over that role, at least until recently, it is Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister. Iran's appeal has been tainted by the
brutal tactics of its allies, in Damascus and Beirut, who may remain
strong materially but have lost out in terms of image and ideas. The
long-term decline of the Islamic Republic in the Middle East presents an
opportunity for peace in the region, particularly in Syria. However, when
it comes to the nuclear issue, it may prove a double-edged sword: opting
for nuclear weapons can be seen as the only way to avoid being pushed
into a corner." http://t.uani.com/1c8FkyB
Zachary Keck in
The Diplomat: "Even as the U.S. considers Iran's
nuclear program as its most immediate threat, a consensus has emerged in
the U.S. foreign policy establishment that China's rise poses the biggest
long-term strategic challenge to the country. There is little indication
that a similar consensus has taken hold among Iranian elites. It will.
Indeed, as Iran has been preoccupied with the U.S. and its allies over
the past decade, China has quietly established a growing presence along
all of Iran's borders. In none of these places are Iran and China's
interests perfectly aligned. In some cases, particularly the Middle East,
they are starkly at odds. Consequentially, should Iran avoid a conflict
with the U.S. in the next few years, it's likely to find China to be its
most menacing threat in the future. Some may find the prospect of a clash
between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the People's Republic of China
farfetched. After all, the countries share many similarities. Each can
legitimately claim to be the heir of one of the great ancient empires of
the world, as well as of a nation that more recently suffered a century
of humiliation at the hands of Western powers. The interplay between
their divergent ancient and modern histories formed the basis of the
revolutions that brought the current regimes to power, and have shaped
their worldviews ever since. In the post-Cold War era, this worldview has
expressed itself most prominently in their shared hostility to Western
cultural hegemony in general, and the U.S. in particular. Not
surprisingly, then, the PRC and IRI have enjoyed friendly and growing
relations since the latter came to power. During Iran's war with Iraq in
the 1980s, China was one of the only countries to provide Iran with
material support. This continued throughout most of the 1990s when
Beijing provided Iran with military and nuclear assistance. More
recently, China's insatiable appetite for energy has led to a rapid
expansion in economic ties, with Sino-Iranian bilateral trade rising from
US$12 billion in 1997 to US$28 billion in 2009, the same year that China
became Iran's largest trading partner. Since then, as sanctions have
continued to push Western energy companies out of Iran, Chinese companies
have readily filled the vacuum. Consequently, bilateral trade has reached
US$45 billion in recent years. But this ostensibly friendly relationship
masks a level of mistrust that runs particularly deep on the Iranian
side. Tehran has long perceived China as playing a double game toward it.
For example, although Beijing provided Iran with desperately needed arms
during its war with Iraq (1980-1988), it provided Baghdad with well over
double the amount of arms during the same period. Similarly, from
Tehran's perspective, China has used Iran as a pawn and source of
leverage in its dealings with the United States, always willing to sell
it out for the right price. Thus, after years of U.S. pressure, China
agreed in 1997 to halt its nuclear assistance to Iran and the sale of
certain types of arms to reduce Beijing's existing tensions with the U.S.
This decision included Beijing cancelling a US$4 billion contract for
missiles and nuclear technology. More recently, U.S. concessions in other
areas have led China to support five UN Security Council resolutions
against Iran over its nuclear program. While China watered these down
enough to preserve its own interests in Iran, it was less insistent on
preventing Western companies from fleeing the country. Economic relations
have also proved to be a source of tension. Although Chinese oil
companies have signed numerous multi-billion dollar contracts to develop
Iran's energy industry, Tehran has later terminated many of these over
Beijing's repeated delays. As a 2011 Atlantic Council report noted, 'Of
the $40 billion in announced China-Iran energy investment deals, less
than $3 billion appears to have actually been provided.' Additionally,
Iranian markets have been flooded with cheap Chinese goods in recent
years, further devastating Iran's domestic industry. This has
increasingly angered ordinary Iranians and forced the government to claim
it was taking measures to reduce imports of non-essential goods from
Chinese... In short, Iran rightly considers the U.S. as its greatest
security threat in the near-term. Given America's desire to scale back
its presence in the Middle East, and the possibility of an U.S.-Iranian
rapprochement on the horizon, China's expansion in the Middle East
ultimately poses the greatest threat to Iran over the long term. The U.S.
will undoubtedly share Iran's concern with Beijing's more assertive
Middle East policy, and this could be an additional impetus for them to
put aside their bitter rivalry. Regardless if that occurs or not, it is
clear that as China seeks to deepen its presence in the Middle East, it
will increasingly have to contend with Iran." http://t.uani.com/1da8flE
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive
media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with
discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please
email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
United Against Nuclear
Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a
commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a
regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an
issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own
interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of
nuclear weapons.
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