Thursday, March 21, 2013

Eye on Iran: Obama, Netanyahu Show Solidarity on Iran









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AP: "Seeking a fresh start to a strained relationship, President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday demonstrated solidarity on the key issues that have stirred tensions between them. The U.S. president vowed he would do 'what is necessary' to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while Netanyahu reaffirmed that his newly formed government seeks a two-state solution to Israel's decades-long dispute with the Palestinians. Obama, in Israel for the first time in his presidency, also pledged to investigate reports that Syria had used chemical weapons for the first time in its two-year civil war. And he sternly warned Syrian leader Bashar Assad that use of such weapons would be a 'game-changer,' one that could potentially draw the U.S. military into the conflict for the first time. 'The Assad regime must understand that they will be held accountable for the use of chemical weapons or their transfer to terrorists,' Obama said, standing alongside Netanyahu at a nighttime news conference... On Iran in particular, the two leaders sought to show they were united in their desire to prevent the Islamic republic from developing what Obama called 'the world's worst weapons.'... Netanyahu strongly backed Obama's efforts, saying he was 'absolutely convinced' the U.S. is determined to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons." http://t.uani.com/WGgj4c

Reuters: "Iran's most powerful authority said the Islamic Republic would destroy the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa if Israel launched a military attack against it. 'At times the officials of the Zionist regime (Israel) threaten to launch a military invasion but they themselves know that if they make the slightest mistake the Islamic Republic will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground,' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said during an address, broadcast live on state television." http://t.uani.com/YI2ejn

AFP: "Iran began the Persian New Year on Wednesday with its most senior leader asking the people to stand up to piling Western economic sanctions and also warning that the pressure was unlikely to ease. If Iranians show more 'readiness' to face Western pressure, the next 12 months will be a 'political and economic epoch' for the country, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a recorded message on state television. The year will be filled with 'development, activity and dexterity,' Khamenei vowed in the message aired shortly after Iranians celebrated the Persian New Year, or Nowruz, marking the transition of winter to spring. But, he warned, 'it does not mean that the enmity of enemies will subside,' alluding to Western opposition to Iran's nuclear programme and harsh sanctions against the economy of the Islamic republic... On Wednesday, Khamenei said economic sanctions had failed to 'cripple' Iran, while also noting an increase in pressure. 'It appeared that the enemy was toughening up against Iran' in the past 12 months, he said. 'They said and insisted they wanted to cripple the Iranian nation with sanctions. But they failed.'" http://t.uani.com/11k3JrJ
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Nuclear Program

AP: "While international diplomacy has focused on trying to prevent Iran from using enriched uranium to produce nuclear arms, concern is growing about another rapidly advancing project that could supply plutonium for a nuclear weapon. Tehran hopes to have a plutonium-producing reactor up and running next year, part of a nuclear program that the Iranians insist is designed to produce electricity and material for medical and scientific research - not for bombs. Both plutonium and enriched uranium can be used to produce a nuclear explosion. International concern has so far focused more intensely on Iran's uranium enrichment path... The United States and its allies worry about the plutonium reactor at Arak, southwest of Tehran. U.S. envoy Joseph Macmanus told a recent meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency - the U.N. nuclear watchdog - that the reactor is 'of increasing concern' as its startup date approaches. Israel, which has taken a lead in criticizing Iran's nuclear program, is even more concerned." http://t.uani.com/13eW56U

LAT: "An offer in the most recent round of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program has created anxiety in Israel and injected tension into President Obama's scheduled meetings Wednesday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem. Netanyahu and other Israeli officials worry that the United States and five other world powers offered too much to Tehran during Feb. 26-27 talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan, aimed at persuading Iran's government to curb its uranium enrichment program. Iranian negotiators showed interest in the offer, but no deal was reached... The Israelis argue that the U.S. and its partners 'haven't been maximizing their leverage,' said David Makovsky, a Mideast specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a nonpartisan think tank. He said Iran may read the offer as a sign of wavering U.S. resolve. Other signs, he said, include not sending a second U.S. aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf because of budget cuts at the Pentagon, and Obama's nomination as Defense secretary of Chuck Hagel, who in the past has expressed reluctance to go to war with Iran." http://t.uani.com/YaM3lt

Sanctions

WSJ:
"Iran's crude production capacity is down almost 20% due to strict sanctions imposed by western governments on the nation, according to figures published by the International Energy Agency. The IEA says in its March oil market report that Iran's maximum sustainable crude production capacity is off by 700,000 barrels a day since December 2011, to a current 3 million barrels a day. Western nations agreed on tough sanctions on Iran's oil industry at the start of 2012. Analysts attribute the falling capacity to a ripple effect beginning with the dwindling demand for Iranian crude. Fewer buyers mean it is likely the Islamic Republic has shut in some production. This can reduce the pressure pushing oil and gas out of the fields, making it difficult to return to previous levels of output when production is restarted, analysts added. 'If both gas and oil supply are being shut in, there may well be issues in terms of sustainable production capacity,' said David Fyfe, head of market research and analysis at Gunvor, a role he previously held at the IEA... The energy advisory group is signaling that 'this round of sanctions has had the impact of arguably permanently destroying some capacity in Iran,' said Amrita Sen, oil analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects... The IEA said Iran's oil production was 2.7 million barrels a day in February, compared with 3.5 million barrels a day in December 2011." http://t.uani.com/WMGY0z

Reuters: "Iran's most important holiday, Nowruz is rooted in ancient Zoroastrian culture and marked by large family gatherings, gifts for children, vacations and spring cleaning (called "house shaking" in Persian). But Nowruz this year caps 12 months of high inflation and unemployment and comes with no sign of an end to Western sanctions on Iran's energy and banking sectors that have halved the country's oil exports and made it difficult to conduct trade, even in items not banned by the West. The sanctions are meant to force Iran's leadership to reconsider its disputed nuclear program, which the United States and some allies suspect may be aimed at developing a nuclear weapons capability, something Iran denies. But the most immediate effect of the measures has been a decline in the living standard of millions of Iranians, and that is being felt keenly at this time of year... But some say it is the government that is to blame for the price hikes because subsidized dollars that should have gone to food imports have instead been co-opted by well-connected individuals who used the hard currency to import luxury items instead. 'Some wealthy people are importing expensive cars with cheap dollars and ordinary people can't afford pistachios,' said 48-year-old Shahrokh, who works in a taxi agency." http://t.uani.com/102lQAU

Reuters: "Oil major Royal Dutch Shell lost money trading Iranian crude in 2012 shortly before a European Union embargo and still owes $2.3 billion to Tehran for oil purchases. The details, revealed in Shell regulatory filings, is the first disclosure of its dealings with Iran in 2012, when it kept buying Tehran's oil right up to the mid-year EU embargo deadline. The loss raises questions about Shell's decision to continue trading with Iran in the first half of 2012, taking advantage of an exception for pre-existing contracts, when many of its rivals had stopped. The firm said its trading division generated a gross revenue of $481 million in 2012 on Iranian oil purchases and a net loss of $6 million. Condensate and fuel oil purchases from Iran generated a gross revenue of $631 million and a net profit of $4 million, failing to compensate for the loss in crude." http://t.uani.com/ZfmiJV

Reuters: "Standard Chartered Chairman John Peace apologized on Thursday for inaccurate comments he made earlier this month about his bank breaching U.S. sanctions over Iran. The highly unusual retraction indicated U.S. regulators had put pressure on the bank to clarify the comments following a high-profile settlement last year which cost Standard Chartered $667 million. The London-based bank agreed to deferred prosecution agreements with the U.S. Department of Justice and District Attorney of New York as part of the settlement. Peace said on March 5 at a press conference with reporters that Standard Chartered 'had no willful act to avoid sanctions'. But in a statement on Thursday, he said those comments were 'both legally and factually incorrect' and he retracted them. He said they directly contradicted the bank's acceptance of responsibility. 'To be clear, Standard Chartered Bank unequivocally acknowledges and accepts responsibility ... for past knowing and willful criminal conduct in violating U.S. economic sanctions laws and regulations,' Peace said in the statement. He said he 'very much' regretted his earlier comments, which 'were at best inaccurate.'" http://t.uani.com/162sATv

Syrian Uprising

NYT: "Iran is stepping up its military assistance to President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and the supplies have strengthened his belief that he can prevail in his struggle with the opposition, a senior State Department official said Wednesday. 'They are plussing up their assistance,' said Robert S. Ford, the American ambassador to Syria, referring to Iran. 'They are plussing up their people on the ground. They are plussing up what they sending in.' The continued support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, have had an important influence on Mr. Assad's calculations, Mr. Ford said. 'Today, he still thinks he can win militarily,' Mr. Ford noted in testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs." http://t.uani.com/149HZTA

Opinion & Analysis


Robert Zarate in RCW: "As President Obama meets with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Israel this week, it's critical that both leaders discuss-without any illusions-the Iranian nuclear program's growing threat to Middle East security and global stability. For nearly a decade, the United States and other world powers have used a dual-track strategy of diplomacy and non-military pressure in an effort to persuade Iran to halt its highly controversial nuclear program. However, the dual-track strategy has not yet succeeded in dissuading Iran from its quest for the capability to make a nuclear weapon on increasingly short notice. In one of the more alarming scenarios, analysts estimate that Iran-using only declared nuclear material and declared sites for uranium enrichment-has the technical potential to produce nuclear explosive material for its first nuclear weapon in a matter of a few months. What's worse, if Iran has undeclared sites for uranium enrichment, then analysts worry that Iran's possible timeline for breaking out overtly-or sneaking out covertly-of the international inspections regime and building its first nuclear bomb could further shorten. The question of whether Iran has declared all of its nuclear materials, equipment, and facilities is of critical importance. For example, while Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper wrote in an unclassified report to Congress that U.S. intelligence agencies 'assess Iran could not divert safeguarded material and produce a weapon-worth of WGU [weapons-grade uranium] before this activity is discovered,' Clapper's report remained completely silent on the possibility that Iran has undeclared-and therefore unsafeguarded-nuclear material. U.S. policymakers and lawmakers should press the intelligence community on this omission because the possibility that Iran has undeclared nuclear material is very real, according to the world's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In February 2013 report, the IAEA warned once again that international inspectors are able to verify the correctness-but not the completeness-of Iran's nuclear declarations to the Agency... Moreover, the IAEA reiterated that international inspectors 'will not be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran unless and until Iran provides the necessary cooperation with the Agency' as legally demanded by the 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors and the United Nations Security Council. However, Iran has adamantly refused to provide the IAEA with such 'necessary cooperation' for nearly a decade and counting... Whatever President Obama may say during his trip to Israel, it's clear that he still views diplomacy as a viable means to achieving the ultimate end of stopping Iran's nuclear weapons-making potential. But as the window rapidly closes for the United States, Israel, and other responsible members of the international community to halt Iran's destabilizing nuclear ambitions, it's urgent that Mr. Obama not to give up his end to obtain his means." http://t.uani.com/11k8HVo

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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