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Top Stories
U.S. News &
World Report: "Prominent lawmakers and Middle East
experts on Thursday urged Washington to enact stricter sanctions on Iran,
with one former senior diplomat urging 'the most robust sanctions in
history.' ... 'The consequences to Iran have been significant,' former
U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Mark Wallace told a House panel Thursday.
'Iran's [currency] has been in free-fall, a reliable indicator of the
economic impact of sanctions.' Still, Wallace called for bolder steps.
'With bold action, we still have an opportunity to thwart Iran's nuclear
ambitions,' Wallace said. 'We must seek the most robust sanctions in
history, and we must consider much more than tweaks to current
sanctions.' Florida Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who chairs the House
Foreign Affairs Committee, said economic sanctions 'are inflicting damage
on Iran's long term oil production potential.' What's more, she said
'sanctions on Iran's oil industry and banking system are curtailing the
foreign partnerships that the Iranian oil industry has relied on.' But Ros-Lehtinen
echoed Wallace, saying 'more remains to be done.'" http://t.uani.com/MrpOzS
NYT:
"Iranian oil production, the backbone of the Islamic republic's
economy, fell by 12 percent in the first three months of the year and is
likely to fall even more, industry experts say, as sanctions make it
increasingly hard for the country to find markets for its crude. The
decline, documented in a May report by the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries, is sharply at odds with statistics provided by Iran's
Oil Ministry that register no significant change in output over the past
year. But it is accelerating so fast that if current trends continue,
Iran could lose its position as the second-largest crude oil producer in
OPEC to Iraq by June 2013, the organization's statistics show...
Reluctant to slash production, which can do permanent harm to the oil
fields, Iranian officials are storing the excess in a growing armada of
supertankers that are anchored in the vicinity of the country's main oil
terminals in the Persian Gulf, according to the International Energy
Agency, a platform for oil consuming countries." http://t.uani.com/LdEEUS
Guardian:
"A clutch of former intelligence chiefs and diplomats have joined
forces to press for more stringent sanctions against Iran to deter the
Islamic republic from pursuing its nuclear programme, warning that the
alternative is a military conflict. They include Meir Dagan, a former
director of the Mossad, former CIA chief James Woolsey and former chief
of staff of the British armed forces Charles Guthrie. Dagan is already on
record as saying an Israeli military strike on Iran is 'the stupidest
thing I ever heard'. In a comment piece for the Wall Street Journal, they
argue that 'the world faces a stark choice. Our near future carries the
risk of a military conflict with Iran, or a nuclear arms race in the
already volatile Middle East. It is still possible to avoid these
outcomes, but only if like-minded nations act immediately to deliver a
potentially decisive economic blow to the regime.' Existing sanctions are
having a tangible impact, say the authors, citing the 'freefall' of
Iran's currency, the rial. But now the international community must
'truly isolate the regime'. They say this means 'passing the most robust
sanctions against Iran in history'. They propose four measures." http://t.uani.com/KIrEKN
Nuclear
Program & Sanctions
JPost: "Former Mossad head
Meir Dagan, who since leaving office last year has been outspoken in his
opposition to an Israeli strike at this time on Iran, joined two other
former intelligence heads, one American and the other German, in writing
in The Wall Street Journal Thursday that crushing new sanctions need to
be imposed against Tehran. 'As the Iranian regime races to fulfill its
nuclear ambitions, the world faces a stark choice,' read the article.
'Our near future carries the risk of a military conflict with Iran, or a
nuclear arms race in the already volatile Middle East. It is still
possible to avoid these outcomes, but only if like-minded nations act
immediately to deliver a potentially decisive economic blow to the
regime.' In addition to Dagan, the piece was signed by former German
intelligence chief August Hanning and former CIA head James Woolsey, as
well as Charles Guthrie, the former chief of staff of the British armed
forces; former US ambassador to the EU Kristen Silverberg; and Mark
Wallace, the head of a group called United Against Nuclear Iran and a
former US diplomat at the UN." http://t.uani.com/KXKLA0
AFP:
"US lawmakers on Thursday adopted a sharply worded resolution
warning about the dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran and urging President
Barack Obama to increase diplomatic and political pressure against
Tehran. The resolution, which passed by 401 votes in favor and 11
against, warned that 'time is limited' to prevent Iran from acquiring a
nuclear weapons capability and called for 'continued and increasing
economic and diplomatic pressure' to prevent that from occurring. It also
rejected 'any policy that would rely on efforts to contain a nuclear
weapons-capable Iran.' In addition to the full suspension of all
uranium-enrichment and reprocessing activities, the measure called for
Iran's complete cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency,
the United Nations' nuclear watchdog." http://t.uani.com/M0JkjV
Reuters:
"U.S. Senate Republicans blocked legislation for new economic
sanctions on Iran's oil sector on Thursday saying they needed more time
to study the bill, a surprise move that drew anger from Democrats who
wanted approval ahead of nuclear talks next week. 'I feel I've been
jerked around,' Democratic leader Harry Reid said on the Senate floor
after Republicans said they could not immediately approve the bill.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said his staff did not receive a
draft of the bill until late on Wednesday night, and needed more time to
make sure it was as strong as possible. 'I don't think there is anything
to be outraged about,' he told Reid on the floor. 'Why don't we get to
work - work out the differences - and pass the resolution?' ... The
sanctions are meant to shut down any financial deals with Iran's powerful
state oil and tanker enterprises, stripping Tehran of crucial oil
revenues." http://t.uani.com/JBLx8i
AFP:
"Iran rejects Western pressures over its nuclear activities and will
never give up its rights, Tehran's chief nuclear negotiator said Thursday
ahead of crunch talks with world powers in Baghdad next week. 'If we
participate in the negotiations... it is because of our resistance (to
Western powers). Thanks to our resistance, we have defended the rights of
the Iranian people,' Saeed Jalili said in a speech broadcast on local
television. 'The Iranian people will never give up even an iota of their
rights,' Jalili added, in reference to the Islamic republic's nuclear
drive which the West suspects is masking a weapons programme. Tehran
vehemently denies the charge. After a 15 month hiatus, Iran and the P5+1
powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus
Germany -- held their first talks in Istanbul in mid-April, which were
described as 'positive.'" http://t.uani.com/Ku60r8
Reuters:
"Iran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog are making headway towards a
framework deal on how to tackle concerns about its atomic activity,
diplomats say, a potential bargaining chip for Tehran in next week's
negotiations with world powers. Iran says such an agreement is needed
before it can consider a request by U.N. inspectors to visit the Parchin
military site where they believe explosives tests relevant for developing
nuclear weapons may have been carried out. The International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iran held talks this week in Vienna and are due
to meet again on May 21, two days before Tehran and the six global powers
discuss the future of its disputed nuclear program in Baghdad." http://t.uani.com/JBHp8e
FT:
"An oil tanker belonging to Iran's state-owned shipping line has
been switching flags and using multiple companies to transport crude from
Syria to Iran, illustrating how Tehran is helping to sidestep
international efforts to choke the finances of Bashar al-Assad, Syrian
president. Documents obtained by the Financial Times show the vessel,
operated by the Islamic Republic International Shipping Lines, sailed
from Syria to the Gulf of Oman and then Iran, using different flags and
changing owners... Evidence of co-operation between the two countries
comes as industry experts note a marked increase in the use of so-called
'flags of convenience' fluttering on Iranian-owned oil tankers... The
recent voyage of the MT Tour, a tanker in part owned by IRISL - which is
itself subject to international sanctions - offers a glimpse of how this
works. The Tour's movements were tracked by the FT through a combination
of shipping records, company registries and sources monitoring the
vessel." http://t.uani.com/KyJ5yC
Reuters:
"Japanese oil refiner Idemitsu Kosan Co has renewed its annual crude
oil purchase deal with Iran but cut the volume in line with its peers to
comply with U.S. sanctions against the Islamic nation, industry sources
said on Friday... Idemitsu Chairman Akihiko Tembo said in March that the
Japanese government probably wanted his firm to continue cutting Iranian
crude imports at the same rate as previously, which was by 10 to 20
percent a year. A company spokesman acknowledged the deal had been
renewed, but declined to whether the volume had been cut. Iranian oil
imports accounted for 1 to 2 percent of the company's crude imports in
the year ended March 31, company spokesmen said." http://t.uani.com/KyyRhK
Reuters:
"South Africa, which receives a quarter of its crude from Iran, is
holding almost daily discussions with the United States, EU Union and
Iran about reducing its purchases and is 'confident' a deal can be struck
to avert U.S. sanctions, a senior energy official said on Thursday... But
Africa's biggest economy, which has suffered fuel shortages in the past
because of strikes and refinery problems, may struggle to offset any
reduction in imports from Iran to secure a waiver from these
sanctions." http://t.uani.com/KucYwf
Human Rights
Guardian:
"The lifestyles of gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people in
Iran are comprehensively and systematically denied by the Islamic regime,
which exposes them to horrific punishment, bullying and risk of suicide,
a study has found. The first detailed report on Iran's LGBT community has
found that its members live under social and state repression, with some
being persecuted, forced into exile or even sentenced to death. The study
was conducted by Small Media, a non-profit group based in London.
Researchers led by Bronwen Robertson, director of operations, gathered
first-hand testimonies from hundreds of LGBT Iranians using face to face
interviews or through a secret online forum." http://t.uani.com/JnJkXM
Opinion &
Analysis
Vali Nasr in
Bloomberg: "The word 'breakthrough' has been uttered
hopefully in anticipation of the meeting May 23 in Baghdad of officials
from six world powers and Iran to resolve the standoff over Iran's
nuclear program. A positive meeting last month in Istanbul kindled a
sense of momentum. The U.S., which has kept the talks on track as Iran
has tried to wiggle out of them, wants Iran to freeze its program and
agree to future negotiations on capping uranium enrichment and opening
nuclear sites to full international inspection. But success will continue
to rely on the unified U.S., European, Russian and Chinese decision to
impose punishing economic sanctions on Iran, and that cohesion is now
under threat. It's shaky not just because Russia and China are, as usual,
difficult to keep in the corral. The new and greater challenge is the
risk that the just-elected French president will break ranks and that
economic woes will lead to a further dissolution of European resolve to
confront Iran's nuclear program. Before Nicolas Sarkozy became president
in 2007, France, like the rest of Europe, took a softer approach to Iran
than the U.S. But Sarkozy was hawkish on Iran, and eager to move France
closer to the U.S. He argued for robust international sanctions to compel
Iran to give up its presumed nuclear weapons program. His approach
influenced the U.K., and eventually hardened the position of the rest of
Europe. Under Sarkozy, France led Europe in insisting on a tightening of
financial pressure and a European embargo on Iranian oil, set to begin
July 1. France's new Socialist president, Francois Hollande, is
distancing himself from Sarkozy's legacy, including on the Iran policy.
Shortly after Hollande's victory, former Socialist Prime Minister Michel
Rocard visited Iran on a private but symbolic trip. Although Hollande has
publicly pronounced his support for the U.S. position, it was clear from
the comments of Iranian officials who met with Rocard that they are
confident France will no longer serve as the hard line at the negotiating
table... If Europe slides, it would be difficult for the U.S. to keep
China and Russia in the fold, especially with both sets of relations
recently tested... To Iran, this is all welcome news: The international
alliance against its nuclear program is losing focus and may unravel.
Almost certainly, there will be no further sanctions, and those on the
books will be implemented inconsistently. Such a reading will probably
lead Iran to take a confident, uncompromising position in the nuclear
negotiations. The challenge, then, is to keep intact the international
alliance that was created to prevent just that. The U.S. should work
harder at mending fences with Russia and China to keep them onboard. And
European officials should exercise leadership in keeping this crucial
security matter on their agenda. Otherwise, Iran will have no reason to
resolve the nuclear issue. Far from a breakthrough, what we can expect
from the nuclear talks in that case is a long, slow and frustrating
process." http://t.uani.com/LhJzun
Guy Bechor in
YnetNews: "The mass executions of members of the
Kurdish, Azeri and Sunni Arab minorities in Iran - usually on false
charges of espionage, the spreading of blogs, porn, or merely posting
photos online - attest to the immense tension faced by the country's religious-military
regime at this time. As of late, Iran's TV broadcasts are replete with
'admissions of guilt' by candidates for execution, 'confessions' of spies
and fabricated expressions of regret, against a backdrop of suspense
thriller music. Aside from Syria, where a civil war is raging, there is
no other state in the Middle East where the regime executes political
activists so ostentatiously and lustfully. The regime fears a return of
the protests of millions against it, as was the case in 2009, so it responds
wildly in order to deter the masses. 'Facebook is a Zionist espionage
machine,' computer expert Ahmadinejad explained to his countrymen. This
regime knows that Iran is a country of minorities, where no one sect
boasts a majority. The Persians themselves are below the 50% mark, and
the other minorities are interested in joining neighboring countries and
have no intention of supporting a regime that oppresses them. The
second-largest minority is the Azeri people, some 20 million citizens who
make up about one-quarter of Iran's population, including supreme leader
Ali Khamenei and opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Many Azeris would
like to be annexed by neighboring Azerbaijan, their cultural homeland.
Azerbaijan too views Iran's Azeri regions as areas belonging to it
culturally. And so, for example, in the 2009 Eurovision song contest,
Azerbaijan presented a video of heritage sites, and to Iran's amazement
the clip included a site located in Iran, the Poets Tomb (Maqbaratol
Shoara) near the city of Tabriz. Tehran also claims that Azeris are
helping Israel's and America's spy agencies to hit Iranian regime
targets. Another large minority are the Kurds, who engage in violent
clashes with the Revolutionary Guards on a daily basis. Their dream is to
desert Iran and join the great Kurdish homeland, once it's established.
Other minorities include the Tajik people, who wish to join Pakistan, and
the Sunni Arabs, who dream of establishing a Sunni state within Iran to
be called Ahwaz. The regime in Tehran knows how soft its ethnic
underbelly is; officials are aware of the danger of their country
breaking up and disintegrating in case of a military clash. Every
minority will work to promote its national objectives, at the expense of
the Persians." http://t.uani.com/M0IbZK
Economist
Editorial Board: "Optomism, in the intricate and
frustrating world of international wrangling about Iran's nuclear
programme, is a relative concept. But the White House did call the
opening of talks between Iran and the '5+1 group' (the five permanent
members of the UN Security Council and Germany) in Istanbul four weeks
ago a 'positive first step'. After several months in which a pre-emptive
military strike by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities seemed to be
becoming more likely, hopes of a diplomatic solution have now risen.
Attention is switching to Baghdad where, on May 23rd, the work on a deal
will begin in earnest. Iran's return to the table in an apparently more
constructive mood marks a sharp change. The latest round of talks failed in
January 2011, after Iran's chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili, set
preconditions that other countries found unacceptable. But since the end
of 2011 pressure on the regime in Tehran has increased. The UN's nuclear
watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), published a
damning report detailing its concerns over the 'possible military
dimensions' of Iran's nuclear programme. International sanctions have
bitten hard-creating a 'world of hurt' in President Barack Obama's words.
America now penalises any foreign financial institutions doing business
with Iran's central bank, the country's main conduit for oil money, and
the European Union has imposed an embargo on Iranian oil, due to come
into full effect by July. The last time Iran seemed interested in
co-operating was in 2003, shortly after the invasion of Iraq. George Bush
had named Iran as part of the 'axis of evil' (which also contained Iraq
and North Korea). Fearing that it could suffer Iraq's fate, Iran signed
the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which
gives IAEA inspectors souped-up rights of access. Two years later, when
things were going badly wrong for America in Iraq and Iran believed the
threat of an invasion had passed, it reneged on those commitments. But
responding to pressure is not the same as genuine willingness to do a
deal. Optimists think the restarted talks could persuade Iran to take a
new course and defuse a hugely dangerous crisis. But sceptics believe
that the regime is playing for time, growing ever closer to the point
where it can produce a small arsenal of nuclear weapons. Doomsters
contend that it is all too late anyway: Iran is already so close to the
nuclear threshold that the main effort should now be to dissuade
potential nuclear rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, from taking the
same path. Three critical factors determine Iran's nuclear capabilities.
One is the amount of uranium it has enriched to 19.75% of U-235, which
can quickly be converted to highly enriched uranium (HEU)-weapons-grade
is usually 85% or more of U-235 but getting there from 19.75% takes
relatively little time. Second is the number of gas centrifuges Iran can
employ to enrich its stockpile of 3.5% low-enriched uranium (LEU) to
19.75% LEU. Third is how near Iran is to being able to make a warhead
small and light enough to fit on a ballistic missile." http://t.uani.com/KItvzh
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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